#3256 Postby Beef Stew » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:52 pm
Currently speaking, Isaias is tracking towards Andros, and is forecasted to either strike or brush the island within the next 20 hours. If we take a quick dip into the climatology, a majority of hurricanes that strike Andros Island on approach from the general southeast direction go on to strike Florida as well.
In the HURDAT era, at least 5 hurricanes made landfall on Andros Island after approaching from the southeast, and continued on to strike Florida at hurricane intensity: 1891’s Hurricane 3, the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane, 1928’s Hurricane 1, 1945’s Hurricane 9, and 1979’s Hurricane David. At least two made landfall on Andros, but went on to miss FL: 1899’s Hurricane 3 (Hurricane San Ciriaco), and 1908’s Hurricane 6.
If we expand the list to hurricanes that came from the general southeast and passed within 60 nautical miles of the center of Andros, 4 additional hurricanes went on to strike FL: 1861’s Hurricane 2, 1903’s Hurricane 3, 1926’s Hurricane 1, and the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. Another 4 did not: 1866’s Hurricane 6 1883’s Hurricane 3, 1896’s Hurricane 2, and 2016’s Hurricane Matthew.
Another thing to note is that of all of the storms that ended up missing Florida following an Andros strike or brush, only two avoided a ConUS strike entirely: 1866’s Hurricane 6, and 1908’s Hurricane 6. The other hurricanes made additional landfalls as follows: 1883’s Hurricane 3 (NC), 1896’s Hurricane 2 (MA), 1899’s Hurricane 3 (Hurricane San Ciriaco) (NC), and 2016’s Matthew (SC).
Again, this is not a forecast but just the climo, and it’s possible I have missed some storms. However, should Isaias pass over or near Andros tomorrow as forecasted, it would put it with a grouping of storms that have gone on to frequently impact Florida and/or the US directly.
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