ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[DestinHurricane]

One thing I am pretty sure of, probably won’t end up far from where the Euro has it. The model is really good in this timeframe. Landfalls in Boca Raton / Deerfield it looks like.

18z landfills in Boca again? Or you mean the 12Z?

[WeatherEmperor]

Happy Hour GFS ensembles look slightly east, but look stronger. Looks like maybe 2 members miss Florida just to the east, and a few ride I-95 through the Space Coast.

Can you post a picture?


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[DESTRUCTION5]

18z HWRF landfall near the cape. One of the last to cave to the left shift.

[TTARider]

which cape?

[ronjon]

18z HWRF landfall near the cape. One of the last to cave to the left shift.

With HWRF and GFS shifting west from their 12z runs, look for the TVCN track to shift west to a slightly inland track now. Waiting on 18z Euro now....

[BobHarlem]

which cape?

Canaveral.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing I am pretty sure of, probably won’t end up far from where the Euro has it. The model is really good in this timeframe. Landfalls in Boca Raton / Deerfield it looks like.

I’m thinking somewhere between Boca Raton and Palm Beach for landfall at the moment. Could be a hurricane still at landfall but a weakening one at that.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF no long start curving until after landfall. and at two different times.. it bends wnw briefly..

look slike the data from the G-IV made it into the models.

[HurricaneFrances04]

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF no long start curving until after landfall. and at two different times.. it bends wnw briefly..

look slike the data from the G-IV made it into the models.

I expected the models to shift further west with that data. Looks like it didn't make a difference in the models.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF no long start curving until after landfall. and at two different times.. it bends wnw briefly..

look slike the data from the G-IV made it into the models.

I expected the models to shift further west with that data. Looks like it didn't make a difference in the models.

G-IV data won’t be ingested until 0z

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF no long start curving until after landfall. and at two different times.. it bends wnw briefly..

look slike the data from the G-IV made it into the models.

I expected the models to shift further west with that data. Looks like it didn't make a difference in the models.

G-IV data won’t be ingested until 0z

its pretty much automatic. partial data almost certainly made into the 18z..

someone have the link to the last GFS data dumb. ? the one I had from last year does not work anymore.

[SFLcane]

Euro running strong ridge coming for a landfall in SFL it seems.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Happy Hour Euro looks a little slower, but still landfall in Boca (maybe closer to Delray).

Edit: Maybe a bit of an east shift. Looks like it's gonna run up I-95.

[DestinHurricane]

Happy Hour Euro looks a little slower, but still landfall in Boca (maybe closer to Delray).

Edit: Maybe a bit of an east shift. Looks like it's gonna run up I-95.

Yeah looks like an east shift to me. Seems to be caving to the other models.

[SFLcane]

Boom! SFL get ready...

[Aric Dunn]

Happy Hour Euro looks a little slower, but still landfall in Boca (maybe closer to Delray).

Edit: Maybe a bit of an east shift. Looks like it's gonna run up I-95.

Yeah looks like an east shift to me. Seems to be caving to the other models.

it has been roughly in the same part of florida for many runs..

its just nice now to have all the models in a much better consensus

[TheStormExpert]

Boom! SFL get ready...

https://i.imgur.com/Eh54WLI.png

What’s the intensity?

[chaser1]

Boom! SFL get ready...

https://i.imgur.com/Eh54WLI.png

What’s the intensity?

Still looks close to a Boca landfall

[AutoPenalti]

Happy Hour Euro looks a little slower, but still landfall in Boca (maybe closer to Delray).

Edit: Maybe a bit of an east shift. Looks like it's gonna run up I-95.

Yeah looks like an east shift to me. Seems to be caving to the other models.

That’s not an east shift...