ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2101 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Happy Hour Euro looks a little slower, but still landfall in Boca (maybe closer to Delray).

Edit: Maybe a bit of an east shift. Looks like it's gonna run up I-95.


Yeah looks like an east shift to me. Seems to be caving to the other models.

i’m not sure i’d call this run “caving”
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2102 Postby JPmia » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 pm

chaser1 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Boom! :eek: SFL get ready...

https://i.imgur.com/Eh54WLI.png

What’s the intensity?


Still looks close to a Boca landfall


Yep, same spot as the earlier runs
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2103 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Happy Hour Euro looks a little slower, but still landfall in Boca (maybe closer to Delray).

Edit: Maybe a bit of an east shift. Looks like it's gonna run up I-95.


Yeah looks like an east shift to me. Seems to be caving to the other models.

i’m not sure i’d call this run “caving”


Yeah if anything it's "confirming" the west shift.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2104 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:22 pm

The 18z Euro goes in around 993mb near Boca or West Palm, and out near Ormond Beach, it doesn't stay inland quite as long as the last run, but it's still just inland almost 24 hours over Florida. Luckily most of the rain will be east over the ocean.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2105 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:22 pm

Like I said, doubt the Euro will waiver much from here on out, it is lethal in this timeframe. But any shifts east no matter how slight do make a big difference for my locale.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2106 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:Like I said, doubt the Euro will waiver much from here on out, it is lethal in this timeframe. But any shifts east no matter how slight do make a big difference for my locale.


Yeah now the wobbles here and there will significantly alter impacts from the EC of FL. Especially how east loaded it is. Isaias could run up the spine of FL and Tampa could be partly cloudy :P.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2107 Postby Camerooski » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:25 pm

The west side of Isaias is taking a beating right now on IR, shear?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2108 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:Like I said, doubt the Euro will waiver much from here on out, it is lethal in this timeframe. But any shifts east no matter how slight do make a big difference for my locale.


It's an amazingly sensitive angle of approach to the peninsula.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2109 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:26 pm

Yeah there should be enough shear to prevent Isaias from being a fully symmetrical storm.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2110 Postby Beachside » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:29 pm

toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Like I said, doubt the Euro will waiver much from here on out, it is lethal in this timeframe. But any shifts east no matter how slight do make a big difference for my locale.


It's an amazingly sensitive angle of approach to the peninsula.

Unfortunately it seems to be the case all too often.... Matthew, Irma. FL East Coast got lucky on both of those. Someone posted earlier what a huge difference even just 50 miles can make.....
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2111 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:Like I said, doubt the Euro will waiver much from here on out, it is lethal in this timeframe. But any shifts east no matter how slight do make a big difference for my locale.

Could be sunny skies or could be eyewall hell here. But thankfully leaning towards the former.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2112 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:33 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Like I said, doubt the Euro will waiver much from here on out, it is lethal in this timeframe. But any shifts east no matter how slight do make a big difference for my locale.

Could be sunny skies or could be eyewall hell here. But thankfully leaning towards the former.

can't tell if you're trolling.

the eyewall just went right over boca last run, and the run before.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2113 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:36 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Like I said, doubt the Euro will waiver much from here on out, it is lethal in this timeframe. But any shifts east no matter how slight do make a big difference for my locale.

Could be sunny skies or could be eyewall hell here. But thankfully leaning towards the former.

can't tell if you're trolling.

the eyewall just went right over boca last run, and the run before.

Just going based off NHC track. Hope it stays where it is and no shift west. Like gator said, the EXACT track matters a lot here.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2114 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:39 pm

NAVGEM shifts back west, looks like a TS:

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2115 Postby caneseddy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:42 pm

gatorcane wrote:NAVGEM shifts back west, looks like a TS:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRRdPwc9/navgem-mslp-pcpn-seus-7.png


Landfall in extreme southern Miami-Dade and then up the spine
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2116 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:42 pm

The right-biased GFS parallel with a big shift west considering the timeframe, shows a Florida landfall for the first time I think:

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2117 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:44 pm

This is the reason why not to believe the GFS showing a weaker Isaias as it gets to FL. It is worthless past 12-24 hrs.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2118 Postby ronjon » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:44 pm

:uarrow: Big shift West on the GFS para.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2119 Postby caneseddy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:45 pm

HMON stays completely offshore as does the HWRF-Para
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2120 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:46 pm

caneseddy wrote:HMON stays completely offshore as does the HWRF-Para


They both have been right biased all along with Isaias.
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