ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[eastcoastFL]

A closer look at the 18z Euro.
I really doubt it will loose strength as it tracks over the Gulf Stream before making landfall in Palm Beach County.

https://i.imgur.com/pNaTyMk.gif

This would be the worst case scenario for the Florida East Coast and into Jax area, like this EURO run shows for Sunday into Sunday evening. It has Isaias run up just inland along the coast. This woukd bring onshore flow along with storm surge and wind of TS force or higher depending on the intensity of the cyclone. It seems that this scenario is looking quite possible right now.

Ya that run looks like the worst case scenario for myself and those north of me. There are massive storms to the north of the center on radar

[eastcoastFL]

With so many models showing Isaias moving inland within 36 hours, why is the NHC consistently hugging the right side of guidance?

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

The latest euro does come pretty far inland. I think the nhc is doing great so far but you have to give some weight to that

[SouthernBreeze]

Not sure how to post twitter img here, but Will Komaromi's last post in shear:

@willkomaromi
Latest 85 GHz SSMIS w/@UWCIMSS shear product overlay suggests that #Isaias' core has wrapped upshear and is nearly fully closed, which should help to resist detrimental effects of dry, moderate shear environment and promote further intensification.

[Nuno]

With so many models showing Isaias moving inland within 36 hours, why is the NHC consistently hugging the right side of guidance?

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

Yes, that is usually the outcome. But we're clearly seeing reliable track models such as UK and Euro going inland before scraping up.

My question wasnt a criticism of the NHC. Just seems unusual with about 24 hours to go.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1289369333416648705

[DestinHurricane]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

[fox13weather]

With so many models showing Isaias moving inland within 36 hours, why is the NHC consistently hugging the right side of guidance?

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

Yes, that is usually the outcome. But we're clearly seeing reliable track models such as UK and Euro going inland before scraping up.

My question wasnt a criticism of the NHC. Just seems unusual with about 24 hours to go.

I like the NHC 5 pm track ....and there is no guarantee it makes landfall at all ....18z GFS and HWRF may end up being pretty good.

[NDG]

A closer look at the 18z Euro.
I really doubt it will loose strength as it tracks over the Gulf Stream before making landfall in Palm Beach County.

https://i.imgur.com/pNaTyMk.gif

I wouldn’t doubt it, there’s shear out ahead of Isaias.

That's what they were saying a day or two ago, shear ahead of it in the Bahamas will keep it at TS strength only and look at it tonight.

[toad strangler]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

Why?

[Kat5]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

That’s going to be the likely outcome. I’m not buying those strong ridge scenarios just yet.

[Camerooski]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

why?

[toad strangler]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

That’s going to be the likely outcome. I’m not buying those strong ridge scenarios just yet.

Why?

[NDG]

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

Yes, that is usually the outcome. But we're clearly seeing reliable track models such as UK and Euro going inland before scraping up.

My question wasnt a criticism of the NHC. Just seems unusual with about 24 hours to go.

I like the NHC 5 pm track ....and there is no guarantee it makes landfall at all ....18z GFS and HWRF may end up being pretty good.

How about that right biased HWRF it finally decided to join the rest of the models, I am sure the HMON at some point will do the same.

[DestinHurricane]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

Why?

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

[TheDreamTraveler]

With so many models showing Isaias moving inland within 36 hours, why is the NHC consistently hugging the right side of guidance?

NHC doesn't move their forecast as quickly as the models move around. NHC was on the left side of the guidance I believe on Wednesday when the models shifted from the Florida west coast back to the East coast, or even offshore entirely.

It also seems like they always have an early bias away from Florida, are hesitant to show landfall there, triggering warnings and let’s face it, panic in some cases. Obviously they’re not going to keep it offshore if the models are showing a sustained track that does strike, but I think they like to have high confidence before they go there.

You're hilarious. The NHC was showing a landfall and it going up the WESTERN side of Florida a few days ago...stop saying things that aren't true.

[Hurrilurker]

NHC doesn't move their forecast as quickly as the models move around. NHC was on the left side of the guidance I believe on Wednesday when the models shifted from the Florida west coast back to the East coast, or even offshore entirely.

It also seems like they always have an early bias away from Florida, are hesitant to show landfall there, triggering warnings and let’s face it, panic in some cases. Obviously they’re not going to keep it offshore if the models are showing a sustained track that does strike, but I think they like to have high confidence before they go there.

You're hilarious. The NHC was showing a landfall and it going up the WESTERN side of Florida a few days ago...stop saying things that aren't true.

Sure, but it was only going to be a tropical storm then. No one’s panicking or evacuating for that.

EDIT: I’m going to stop arguing this because it’s getting off-topic from models.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

Why?

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

The heading hasn't changed today. It's been on a 305 degree heading for almost 24 hours now and continues to be on one based off recon fixes:

[AutoPenalti]

We have data from G-IV now which showed STRONGER RIDGING and a FLATTER TROUGH. So it will be interesting to see the 0z models.

[gatorcane]

I bet we'll see some shifts to the east in the 0Z.

Why?

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

4. Going back at least 30+ years in these scenarios, these storms tend to make the turn north missing Florida at the last second.

[DestinHurricane]

We have data from G-IV now which showed STRONGER RIDGING and a FLATTER TROUGH. So it will be interesting to see the 0z models.

As Aric pointed out, this data was already in models for 18Z. Resulted in no shifts west.