ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I don't know Aric. Just wondering if that flow is an amply dryer air and acting as a bit of a mid to upper level cap. One of the reasons I think the UL outflow is so tepid on the west side may be directly related to a restricted upper level venting as the storm progresses in longitude. I'm thinking that perhaps the rising air in the column is immediately hitting some inhibiting cap as it tries to vent westward. To your point regarding the speed of those winds.... yeah, I agree one wouldn't think it by itself is that strong to simply shear apart a hurricane.

Its is definitely not perfect.. but it is far more conducive than the models have been pointing at for the last couple days.. hence the slow increase in strength as it gets closer to the coast.

Well certainly conducive enough, looking at radar right now. I'll definitely give you that much. Just saw Levi's vid though and that kind of echoes my thoughts regarding potentially dryer air in the mid to upper levels and how it may effect the storm. We both know well enough these small buggers can certainly deepen or weaken quickly. Let the wobble-watching begin!

My issue.. and most peoples issue with analyzing shear with a model ( especially the GFS this year). Is that they have not done well at all with shear this year. Remember HANA 2 days before it deepened?

the G-IV analyzed lower winds than the GFS showed.. sooo. I would say it maintains more so than people are believing..

[eastcoastFL]

I can’t think of a logical reason for it, but it does seem like the majority of hurricanes landfall in the US at night.

I think Wilma was the only one I’ve had during the day. Irma started during the day got worse at night here. Frances Jeanne and Matthew were all over night and all on the weekend if I remember correctly. Obviously the weekend part is coincidence.

Charley was during day. Michael was noon on a Wednesday.

I missed those two. Maybe gulf storms are different

[Vdogg]

I've probably been staring at this too long but it seems like the center is almost riding 76 W, perhaps on a NNW heading.

[beoumont]

Local weather for palm City is calling for sustained winds 65 gusting to 80mph between 2am and 8am Sunday morning. Is it me or does it seem like it’s almost always a weekend that these things come into Florida and the worst always seems to be overnight.

I can’t think of a logical reason for it, but it does seem like the majority of hurricanes landfall in the US at night.

It's about 50-50. In the current case, cities north of you by 60 miles will have a daytime experience if the current track forecast verifies

And if the forward speed slows down a couple of miles an hour more than forecast now, you will have a daytime hit. .

[Nuno]

I've probably been staring at this too long but it seems like the center is almost riding 76 W, perhaps on a NNW heading.

Recon has confirmed it is still moving directionally 302-305, NW.

[Blown Away]

Looks like low level clouds still moving WNW-NW but maybe shear affecting the high clouds?

[eastcoastFL]

WPBF is doing their entire forecast based off of the Euro

[hipshot]

I've probably been staring at this too long but it seems like the center is almost riding 76 W, perhaps on a NNW heading.

Recon has confirmed it is still moving directionally 302-305, NW.

That is WNW, NW is 315.

[supercane4867]

Eyewall is closed.

[aspen]

Isaias has turned out to be a nice-looking low-end hurricane. It has a decent circular CDO with the signs of an eye trying to form, along with good amounts of outflow to the north and east. If he’s lucky, Isaias could get to 80-85 kt, but I have my doubts it’ll get that strong before a little bit extra shear or dry air halts intensification.

[FLpanhandle91]

I gotta say that outflow to the west is looking healthy and symmetrical. Not sure when this shear it supposed to start, but it's not now. Also another large convective burst just west of center. Cloud tops -90°C.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it’s safe to say that if doesn’t get its act together overnight it’s window of opportunity will run out. Although the NHC extends that window of opportunity through tomorrow morning per their latest discussion. After that conditions are not conducive for strengthening

[Aric Dunn]

looks like winds are going up to 90mph..

[supercane4867]

75kt for 11PM is a good bet.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Pass in the NW quadrant was a little impressive.

[CrazyC83]

Current data supports an intensity of 75 kt from what I can see.

[CronkPSU]

I think it’s safe to say that if doesn’t get its act together overnight it’s window of opportunity will run out. Although the NHC extends that window of opportunity through tomorrow morning per their latest discussion. After that conditions are not conducive for strengthening

for what? good argument to pump this up to 90 mph at 11, was never expected to reach that mark in any NHC forecast

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks good, it doesn’t look good, it looks good, it doesn’t look good. Lol. I don’t know what to believe anymore. So many contradicting posts

[eastcoastFL]

I think it’s safe to say that if doesn’t get its act together overnight it’s window of opportunity will run out. Although the NHC extends that window of opportunity through tomorrow morning per their latest discussion. After that conditions are not conducive for strengthening

Seems it’s getting its act together at the moment

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it’s safe to say that if doesn’t get its act together overnight it’s window of opportunity will run out. Although the NHC extends that window of opportunity through tomorrow morning per their latest discussion. After that conditions are not conducive for strengthening

for what? good argument to pump this up to 90 mph at 11, was never expected to reach that mark in any NHC forecast

That’s why I said TONIGHT!!! or TOMORROW MORNING!