ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[artist]

Consensus is still a storm just offshore. Likely to follow the NAM and shift east at 0Z. Florida may just get some breeze and a few showers after all.

Destin, people are here for serious discussion as they have to make plans for their safety. Randomly throwing out cliches without a basis you actually understand, is hot helpful to people. I do feel you would like to learn. If you have questions, ask. Someone with experience will be more than happy to help you understand the why’s. That is what is great about this place. The pro’s and great seasoned amateurs are usually willing to help anyone learn the why’s and wherefore’s.

I am here for serious discussion. It could still hit S FL but it is my opinion that a S FL hit is looking less likely. We shall see how it plays out.

I get that. But I have seen you waffle back and forth echoing others opinions. If you really want to learn, ask and listen, and one day you will be able to help others to understand, too. It’s good to see those eager to learn here.
Not trying to cause a problem. Just asking. Now back to the discussion.

[Blown Away]

A few reasons.

1. The westward trend seems to have stopped per the 18z runs.
2. Heading NW looking like heading for N andros Island
3. Models trending SLOWER

4. Going back at least 30+ years in these scenarios, these storms tend to make the turn north missing Florida at the last second.

Irma sure didn't...Katrina didn't

Frances, Jeanne, Charley, Wilma, Katrina, Irma - Close calls Matthew, Dorian, Isaias??

No location in the basin comes close in past 20 years, SFL is the target.

[toad strangler]

NAM still looks like it is coming in for landfall. Just slightly north of last run

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you would think it went straight out to sea the way people are talking about this shift.

agendas

[AutoPenalti]

NAM 32k has landfall in Melbourne?

[Jevo]

00Z NAM shifts EAST through 18 hours.

The NAM is generally not used for any type of plot forecast guidance.. It is however used for its high resolution synoptic data which is pumping a stronger ridge in the 0z run. See how this pans out

[DestinHurricane]

Let's say Isaias follows the current NHC track, it's a pretty big bust from the Euro Boca landfall then into peninsula before turning. The Euro rarely wavers more than a few miles in the 24 hour range, if Isaias stays a little E of the track that's a big miss by the mighty Euro.

Yes. This is exactly what i'm saying. I trust that it will follow NHC track which is not a FL landfall. I'm not putting all the trust in one model.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM near landfall on Treasure Coast so it did shift more to the east by a bit:

[Steve]

NAM still looks like it is coming in for landfall. Just slightly north of last run

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HRRR, which I trust more than the NAM is close but more toward Cocoa, Titusville, Mims and those areas. Convection builds generally to the west, but you can't tell yet if it's going to landfall up there or not (will have to wait for the 06 or 12z).


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80100&fh=6

[ronjon]

Let's say Isaias follows the current NHC track, it's a pretty big bust from the Euro Boca landfall then into peninsula before turning. The Euro rarely wavers more than a few miles in the 24 hour range, if Isaias stays a little E of the track that's a big miss by the mighty Euro.

NHC track now on the east side of guidance.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[toad strangler]

NAM 32k has landfall in Melbourne?

Looks like Vero Beach or Sebastian just south of Melbourne. If that's actually landfall. Kinda half and half.

[fci]

With so many models showing Isaias moving inland within 36 hours, why is the NHC consistently hugging the right side of guidance?

So many? The ECMWF has actually trended to the east the past few runs ...consensus is up the coast and I have lost track of the number of storm that were supposed to make landfall on the east coast of Florida only to stay 50 miles offshore...

No the ECM actually shifted inland quite a bit in its 12z run from its offshore 00z previous run. So much so that Rick Knabb (former director of NHC) now on TWC consistently showed that run to warn tonight the center might likely come inland in Florida. The 18z Euro shifted slightly east from the 12z run, but it still tracks inland. Meanwhile, the major models on the right side of the guidance at 12z such as the GFS, GFS para, and HWRF have all shifted West on their 18z runs. Add in the UKMET, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM as other models that now track inland in Florida and I think that's shaping up to be a pretty strong consensus. Could Iasias still stay offshore? Sure but Weight of evidence suggests less likely at this point.

Very good points.
I’ve followed storms since I was kid, many, many years.
I am pretty much a slave to climatology and that makes me right quite often.
So many times the forecast has looked like a hit to South Florida and the models have shifted to the turn to the NW and they stay offshore. I’ll tell those who aren’t hurricane geeks that the storms would miss based on the models and forecast discussions and they think I’m a genius!
Having said that, I don’t remember many situations where the models have consistently showed a landfall in this type set up.

[gatorcane]

Let's say Isaias follows the current NHC track, it's a pretty big bust from the Euro (orange line ECMF) Boca landfall then into peninsula before turning. The Euro rarely wavers more than a few miles in the 24 hour range, if Isaias stays a little E of the track that's a big miss by the mighty Euro.

NHC track now on the east side of guidance.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

If you add the ensemble spaghetti, their track is even more to the east. Euro operational through SE Palm Beach County seems to be in the middle of all of this:

[Ken711]

Let's say Isaias follows the current NHC track, it's a pretty big bust from the Euro Boca landfall then into peninsula before turning. The Euro rarely wavers more than a few miles in the 24 hour range, if Isaias stays a little E of the track that's a big miss by the mighty Euro.

NHC track now on the east side of guidance.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Maybe a just off the coast track will eventually will win out with no FL landfall.

[toad strangler]

Ironically, 00z NAM is in the same place it was at 18z through 45 hrs

[HurricaneFrances04]

That west jog near Freeport is odd.

[WeatherEmperor]

That west jog near Freeport is odd.

How long has this been going on for? How much longer will it last??

[fci]

Consensus is still a storm just offshore. Likely to follow the NAM and shift east at 0Z. Florida may just get some breeze and a few showers after all.

Destin, people are here for serious discussion as they have to make plans for their safety. Randomly throwing out cliches without a basis you actually understand, is hot helpful to people. I do feel you would like to learn. If you have questions, ask. Someone with experience will be more than happy to help you understand the why’s. That is what is great about this place. The pro’s and great seasoned amateurs are usually willing to help anyone learn the why’s and wherefore’s.

I am here for serious discussion. It could still hit S FL but it is my opinion that a S FL hit is looking less likely. We shall see how it plays out.

Seems quite contrary when models keep adjusting left and the NHC keeps shifting left; for you to say it’s “looking less likely”.
Climatology would say it misses and I’m generally a devotee if climatology but I don’t think you can actually support your conclusion at this point.

[tolakram]

Seriously people, this is the models thread and I'm going to be very honest as it pertains to THIS THREAD.

I don't care where you think it's going, I don't care about your wild guess about what the models will do.

If these model threads constantly devolve into silly banter then we can scrap them and keep everything in the discussion thread.

I hope I made my frustration perfectly clear.

[HurricaneFrances04]

18z GFS Parallel also shows it:



It's also the model's closest run to Florida yet.

[STRiZZY]

Seriously people, this is the models thread and I'm going to be very honest as it pertains to THIS THREAD.

I don't care where you think it's going, I don't care about your wild guess about what the models will do.

If these model threads constantly devolve into silly banter then we can scrap them and keep everything in the discussion thread.

I hope I made my frustration perfectly clear.

I hear you on the off topic subjects but if we can't talk about what we think the models are going to do then what discussion about the models is acceptable? Strictly model output?