ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Radar is back up again, Eyewall opened up again, might be the reason it has been taking a more WNW heading the last few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/wb4ukZu.gif

That opened up quick. However, I don’t think it’ll be open for long, because convection is still firing and rotating around the center. It could try to rebuild that part of the eyewall.

[blp]

Actually, that was almost a due west jog, WNW over all during the past few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/0I7C1e8.png

These wobbles are really important right now. It has to make a hard adjustment very soon to keep the track. Let's see what happens.

[caneseddy]

Actually, that was almost a due west jog, WNW over all during the past few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/0I7C1e8.png

Even that small west jog, even if overall it is moving WNW, is critical in the long term as it makes it possible for Isaias to pass over the south part of Andros rather than over the island which brings it closer to coast before the turn.

You know it's getting real when we are wobble watching LOL

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I would rather argue over wobbles than the NAM

So true. The story of 2020; wobble watching an MDR storm approaching Florida in end of July, beginning of August. Ok, time to stop cluttering the board

[cjrciadt]

Actually, that was almost a due west jog, WNW over all during the past few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/0I7C1e8.png

These wobbles are really important right now. It had to make a hard adjustment very soon to keep the track. Let's see what happens.

I was waiting until the morning to start Wooble Watchin' Mode. Though tonight's moves can determine a lot, unless it slow downs early.

[toad strangler]

Actually, that was almost a due west jog, WNW over all during the past few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/0I7C1e8.png

These wobbles are really important right now. It had to make a hard adjustment very soon to keep the track. Let's see what happens.

I was waiting until the morning to start Wooble Watchin' Mode. Though tonight's moves can determine a lot, unless it slow downs early.

When you are talking about this kind of angle towards the FL peninsula every wobble matters. Period. One wobble is what saved the Treasure Coast from Matthew.

[ozonepete]

Wow, I missed that the AF recon found 90 knot flight level winds while arguing in the model thread, lol. and that it has been taking a nice jog to the WNW.

yeah, probably need some mods over there and bring those conversations over here....

20 posts about the NAM...there were 2 planes in there, we have radar and sat yet its a tussle over the NAM and 5 miles to the east, lol

Please please don't bring any model posts over here, lol.

[AxaltaRacing24]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

Yeah but this is happening due to all of that mid level westerly shear AND dry air.

if conditions were perfect, it'd turn into a beast.

the stuff you listed helps keep it in check, which is why "only" a cat 1 is foretasted.

[toad strangler]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

Yeah but this is happening due to all of that mid level westerly shear AND dry air.

if conditions were perfect, it'd turn into a beast.

the stuff you listed helps keep it in check, which is why "only" a cat 1 is foretasted.

Agreed, and a big part of why it's going to get at least very close to the FL peninsula.

[caneseddy]

11 pm snippet:

80 mph
NW 15mph
987 mb

Only change in watches and warnings:

The Hurricane Watch is changed to a Hurricane Warning from the
Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line


The
official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very
close to the latest dynamical model consensus.

[NDG]

yeah, probably need some mods over there and bring those conversations over here....

20 posts about the NAM...there were 2 planes in there, we have radar and sat yet its a tussle over the NAM and 5 miles to the east, lol

It's a model isn't it? It's not a top six tropical go to but IT IS a near term tool.

Keep that crap over there please, don't bring it here

[toad strangler]

20 posts about the NAM...there were 2 planes in there, we have radar and sat yet its a tussle over the NAM and 5 miles to the east, lol

It's a model isn't it? It's not a top six tropical go to but IT IS a near term tool.

Keep that crap over there please, don't bring it here

You're asking the wrong dude

[gatorcane]

Pasch a man of few words. How about talking about the Euro vs the GFS which mean big differences for SE Florida?

11pm EST discussion out.

[caneseddy]

[img]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/215355_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png/img]

[AutoPenalti]

Kinda annoyed that the models thread has become yet another discussion thread about one run becoming a trend.

[rigbyrigz]

Pasch a man of few words. How about talking about the Euro vs the GFS which mean big differences for SE Florida?

11pm EST discussion out.

Yeah his Discussion seemed sort of anti-CLIMATIC, if you know what I mean. From commentary here I expected fireworks and hula gals at 11PM.

[jlauderdal]

yeah, probably need some mods over there and bring those conversations over here....

20 posts about the NAM...there were 2 planes in there, we have radar and sat yet its a tussle over the NAM and 5 miles to the east, lol

Please please don't bring any model posts over here, lol.

Lets have a navy nogaps discussion while we await the next disco

[toad strangler]

Kinda annoyed that the models thread has become yet another discussion thread about one run becoming a trend.

I know this is gonna go poof and it should but there are a TON of weenies here

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory feels like a punt.

NHC placed Isaias at 23.3N, but recon just pegged him at 23N. Not a small difference at this point in time.

[NDG]

Pasch a man of few words. How about talking about the Euro vs the GFS which mean big differences for SE Florida?

11pm EST discussion out.

11 PM EDST discussions have been the most boring for the last few days, telling us is time to go to bed for some of us, tomorrow is a long day

[Evil Jeremy]

11 PM EDST discussions have been the most boring for the last few days, telling us is time to go to bed for some of us, tomorrow is a long day

Tomorrow begins in an hour. And it's going to be very very long.