ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2941
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
0Z UKMET is nearly identical to the current NHC forecast, landfall in Martin County and then up the east coast.
1 likes
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
NDG wrote:GFS timewise is now in tune or very close with the Euro which had been trending slower already with its forward speed.
Slowing down yet not further west. Clearly sounds like Isaias will be approaching a COL. Steering influences practically equalize just prior to the point where the trough digs just enough, and the ridge finally begins to wane, and Isaias' exit door to N. Carolina finally opens. If a Florida landfall hadn't occured by that time, it likely won't.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2941
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Nore wrote:CMC initialized with stronger ridgeing
It moves immediately into South Florida. It's been western biased most of the storm's history, so you have to think it just missed the strength of the ridging. Or else it's right but kind of on its own for the 00z models.
0 likes
- ColdMiser123
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 780
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
- Location: Northeast US
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
UK Coordinates:
HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2020 0 22.5N 76.1W 1001 42
1200UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.9N 77.3W 999 42
0000UTC 02.08.2020 24 25.0N 78.4W 998 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 36 26.1N 79.4W 997 44
0000UTC 03.08.2020 48 27.2N 80.1W 995 43
1200UTC 03.08.2020 60 28.4N 80.4W 994 47
0000UTC 04.08.2020 72 30.2N 80.0W 986 56
1200UTC 04.08.2020 84 33.0N 78.8W 967 71
0000UTC 05.08.2020 96 37.3N 76.6W 980 62
1200UTC 05.08.2020 108 42.3N 73.1W 984 46
0000UTC 06.08.2020 120 46.9N 69.0W 991 32
1200UTC 06.08.2020 132 50.5N 65.7W 996 35
0000UTC 07.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2020 0 22.5N 76.1W 1001 42
1200UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.9N 77.3W 999 42
0000UTC 02.08.2020 24 25.0N 78.4W 998 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 36 26.1N 79.4W 997 44
0000UTC 03.08.2020 48 27.2N 80.1W 995 43
1200UTC 03.08.2020 60 28.4N 80.4W 994 47
0000UTC 04.08.2020 72 30.2N 80.0W 986 56
1200UTC 04.08.2020 84 33.0N 78.8W 967 71
0000UTC 05.08.2020 96 37.3N 76.6W 980 62
1200UTC 05.08.2020 108 42.3N 73.1W 984 46
0000UTC 06.08.2020 120 46.9N 69.0W 991 32
1200UTC 06.08.2020 132 50.5N 65.7W 996 35
0000UTC 07.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING
0 likes
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5459
- Age: 31
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.
1 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1710
- Age: 24
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.
it did this last night too. hopefully it stays this time though.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Euro running.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Steve wrote:Nore wrote:CMC initialized with stronger ridgeing
It moves immediately into South Florida. It's been western biased most of the storm's history, so you have to think it just missed the strength of the ridging. Or else it's right but kind of on its own for the 00z models.
Yeah, my guess is its keeping it west due to it being so far off in terms of initial intensity. That westward motion into miami seems unreasonable given the current strength of the storm
Last edited by Nore on Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
CMC is on the order of a hundred miles or so too far west. I' don't agree with this run of the CMC and feel like it's a western outlier (at least through FL/GA/SC).
Last edited by Steve on Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:46 pm
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Last edited by chancebreaks on Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.
Trend is our friend (except Friday afternoon when the trend was west, lol)
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2941
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.
I’m not sure it’s good news, this storm has been running on the southern end of the guidance envelope it’s entire life, with hurricane Douglas the GFS/HWRF were to far to the right.
0 likes
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2941
- Age: 37
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Euro running.
You are about a hour to early for the Euro.
1 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7284
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:Everything has shifted East to some extent in the 00z suite so far. Good news for SFL. Lets hope it sticks. Long day ahead.
I’m not sure it’s good news, this storm has been running on the southern end of the guidance envelope it’s entire life, with hurricane Douglas the GFS/HWRF were to far to the right.
The Canadian has shifted East also, let’s hope it’s a trend
0 likes
-
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:46 pm
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
It's not like the model coordinates ever check out exactly. So 10 miles east or 10 miles west doesn't really matter. It's just a computer spitting out the data, not the actual 'cane . Just like whatever NHC puts out, isn't necessarily what it will end up doing. Tell that to the people 15 years ago or w/e when the storm decided to make a right turn into the west coast of florida early. Or IRMA, Straight up the spine of the state. Probably should of posted this in discussion.
on topic, euro is coming... if it stays west, and doesn't big flux, i am leaning more towards it over gfs on this system.
on topic, euro is coming... if it stays west, and doesn't big flux, i am leaning more towards it over gfs on this system.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests