ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Hurricaneman]

HMON 24 bypassing South Florida.
https://i.imgur.com/zA3rota.png

Bypasses Florida completely, Shifted way East, would be good for Florida but horrible for eastern NC and the Northeast Coast

[Bocadude85]

The 0z HWRF and HMON both have Isaias miss Andros island to the EAST, we will know soon enough if they are correct or not.

[Steve]

Yeah, it's just a few hours until that benchmark.

Here's the HMON at 33

[Steve]

HMON 24 bypassing South Florida.
https://i.imgur.com/zA3rota.png

Bypasses Florida completely, Shifted way East, would be good for Florida but horrible for eastern NC and the Northeast Coast

Yeah. I know their intensities can be way off, but 970's coming up definitely looks bad for the whole mid-Atlantic. You're talking Cat 2ish level there and possibly deepening. I'm interested to see what they end up putting out and how it plays in real time.

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF is more W than 18z through 24 hours...

[Steve]

39 hours HMON and not really strengthening. You don't see that every day in that part of the Atlantic.

[Nore]

Yeah, it's just a few hours until that benchmark.

Here's the HMON at 33
https://i.imgur.com/71Jejl7.png

Im thinking the HMON may be a little strong given the current state of Isaias on IR and radar imagery. I dont buy it maintaining its current intensity all that much

[Steve]

It's hard to say. Some of the depiction models earlier today had it sort of disorganized overnight but then bursting back with some passion tomorrow. It's also kind of an Eastern track. It's down to 977 at 45. See if it wants to keep dropping it as the plots roll in or not.

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF... Decent shift W and South with a landfall now near Vero as TS/Cat1 in 39 hours...

[Steve]

HWRF hits Florida

[Steve]

HMON heading for eastern NC. Looks like some impacts there and heading up the coast.

[Nore]

The HRWF is showing that westerly mid-level shear weakening isaias

[AutoPenalti]

Euro running.

You are about a hour to early for the Euro.

It was the HWRF.

[Steve]

HMON looking for some orange skin and jet black hair and general ****** baggery near the NJ Shore in 78 hours.

[Steve]

HMON 84 hours (valid Tuesday 8am) smacking Long Island and Connecticut

[Steve]

HWRF is slower and more west than HMON. Both show multiple landfalls so far.


I'm going to bed. Y'all have fun.

[chancebreaks]

IS euro 2am est or 3am? or?

[Blown Away]

IS euro 2am est or 3am? or?

2am... Should initiate any moment

[skillz305]

EURO [ECMWF] MODEL 00z 8/1

HOUR 24

[chancebreaks]

Seems slower than last run.