ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

IMHO, a lot farther west from the forecast track.
Need recon to verify.
Winds starting to pile up on the east coast.
Could get a big burst of convection soon.

Bahamian radar looks like its going to split Andros down the middle, SE to NW. Dont think this skirts around it

I don't think recon will fly over the island.
We'll be in the dark for awhile.

[NDG]

This is crazy, conditions in Nassau, a dewpoint of 68 F in the northern quadrant of a Hurricane in the Bahamas? No wonder this thing has been shooting off outflows one after the other one for the last few days, that's a lot of dry air in the mid to upper levels that keeps being entrained into the circulation thus causing cool downdrafts in its NW quadrant.
Some of this dry air at the surface is reaching SE FL, Miami reporting a dewpoint of only 70 deg F.

METAR for: MYNN (Nassau Intl, --, BA)
Text: MYNN 010900Z 10024G35KT 9999 -SHRA SCT015CB BKN030 OVC080 24/20 A2984
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 78%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.84 inches Hg (1010.6 mb)
Winds: from the E (100 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.3 m/s) gusting to 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.0 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more sm (10+ km)
Ceiling: 3000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1500 feet AGL, broken clouds at 3000 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 8000 feet AGL
Weather: -SHRA (light rain showers)

[GCANE]

Rapid pinch off of the dry air.
Towers keep working their magic.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like on radar it might stay east of Andros island. Although may just be my morning eyes.

[djones65]

Please stop feeding Trolls!!!

[GCANE]

Looks like on radar it might stay east of Andros island.

It does look like its on track now.
Eye is tightening up.
Miss Piggy coming in on the SW flank at 10k'

[jhpigott]

That Rossby Wave is a lot farther west and weaker than I thought it would be a couple days ago.
Looks like it may be able to battle the UL Jet better.
Also has implications on the trough and track.

https://i.imgur.com/xFBe9SJ.png

What kind of implications on track? Further east or west?

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 983.7 mb (29.05 inHg)
Time: 10:10:30Z
Coordinates: 24.050N 77.217W

[GCANE]

Haven't heard from the Pig last few minutes.
Last was
983.2 mb
24.083N 77.200W
Looks like SW eyewall rebuilding quickly.

[GCANE]

[NDG]

Pressure is lower than what I thought it was going to be.

983.2 mb
(~ 29.04 inHg)

[Highteeld]

Pressure down a bit from last night. Wind speeds seem about the same though, hard to really ramp up in intensity when the eyewall can't stay closed.

[NDG]

Still a hurricane.

[Blown Away]

You can see the LLC partially exposed touching Andros Island, maybe a hair SW of the track. Shear hitting it, but for sure starting to cross Andros Island about in the middle.

[NDG]

Pressure down a bit from last night. Wind speeds seem about the same though, hard to really ramp up in intensity when the eyewall can't stay closed.

It looks better on radar than what I thought when looking on the satellite.

[AdamFirst]

Northern eyewall about to cross onto Andros.

[xironman]

I wonder if the friction of Andros closes off the eye...

[NDG]

Eyewall is improving again, much better than when I went to bed late last night. BTW, the surface CoC at the surface is on the SW tip of the eyewall.

[NDG]

He agrees with me about the low dewpoints in Nassau Bahamas and SE FL.

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1289502797830877184

[xironman]

88kt surface wind lol