ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Nice W wobble pulling the exposed western side of eyewall/LLC into central Andros Island.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 10:37Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)

A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 10:10:35Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.06N 77.22W

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)

F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 88kts (101.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) of center fix at 10:20:27Z
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix at 10:14:50Z

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)

S. Fix Level: 700mb

[NDG]

URNT12 KWBC 011037
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092020
A. 01/10:10:35Z
B. 24.06 deg N 077.22 deg W
C. 700 MB 3023 m
D. 987 mb
E. 254 deg 1 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C22
H. 38 kt
I. 190 deg 9 nm 10:08:26Z
J. 276 deg 40 kt
K. 193 deg 16 nm 10:06:55Z
L. 88 kt
M. 033 deg 41 nm 10:20:27Z
N. 127 deg 77 kt
O. 029 deg 18 nm 10:14:50Z
P. 12 C / 3065 m
Q. 19 C / 3069 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 3 nm
U. NOAA3 1209A ISAIAS OB 03
MAX FL WIND 77 KT 029 / 18 NM 10:14:50Zjz

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
Nice hot tower building on the NE quad, a W tug, maybe land friction with Andros Island.

[GCANE]

50 mm/hr rain rate.
IMHO border line latent heating that has the potential to kick this up a notch.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289513756263759874

[GCANE]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir
Nice hot tower building on the NE quad, a W tug, maybe land friction with Andros Island.

Definitely convergence of LL winds against the shore.
Going to heat the core up even more.
Infeeds are improving and at the moment, dry air entrainment being pinched off.
See how she looks on the other side of the island.

[Bimms]

Really starting to dislike the Channel 6 Miami weather team. On the news this morning he said the storm has absolutely "no chance of making a landfall" in South Florida. I'm like how can you say that with the shifts we've seen in the tracks. Then he goes on to say how the storm will probably stay in the center of the forecast track and we probably won't see any real effects from the storm besides some off the rain bands. They seem to be super dismissive with every potential storm.

[DestinHurricane]

Really starting to dislike the Channel 6 Miami weather team. On the news this morning he said the storm has absolutely "no chance of making a landfall" in South Florida. I'm like how can you say that with the shifts we've seen in the tracks. Then he goes on to say how the storm will probably stay in the center of the forecast track and we probably won't see any real effects from the storm besides some off the rain bands. They seem to be super dismissive with every potential storm.

No, they are right. Won't see any huge shifts now that we are within 24 hours. Miami, Ft lauderdale, Boca, Delray will not get any impact besides rain bands and some gusty winds. Trust your local pro mets.

[GCANE]

AF306 descending, coming in from the NW.

[GCANE]

AF306 descending, coming in from the NW.

Running at 700mb as well (10K')

[GCANE]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir
Nice hot tower building on the NE quad, a W tug, maybe land friction with Andros Island.

Definitely convergence of LL winds against the shore.
Going to heat the core up even more.
Infeeds are improving and at the moment, dry air entrainment being pinched off.
See how she looks on the other side of the island.

Looks like that tower will close off the eyewall.
Towers need to keep doing stuff like this for Isaias to survive.

[GCANE]

AF306 descending, coming in from the NW.

Running at 700mb as well (10K')

Cool, looks like they got the green light to fly over Andros.

[Kat5]

What seems to be the current movement?

[GCANE]

You definitely don't want to see the same effect down the road.

[Bocadude85]

Really starting to dislike the Channel 6 Miami weather team. On the news this morning he said the storm has absolutely "no chance of making a landfall" in South Florida. I'm like how can you say that with the shifts we've seen in the tracks. Then he goes on to say how the storm will probably stay in the center of the forecast track and we probably won't see any real effects from the storm besides some off the rain bands. They seem to be super dismissive with every potential storm.

No, they are right. Won't see any huge shifts now that we are within 24 hours. Miami, Ft lauderdale, Boca, Delray will not get any impact besides rain bands and some gusty winds. Trust your local pro mets.

Stop posting blanket statements, they are pointless and irresponsible. You have made it clear of what your opinion is and you are entitled to it, however if you are not concerned about the storm then just go about your everyday life and stop posting every 15 minutes on how the storm will have no impacts in S.Fla.

[GCANE]

Really dry west of Andros.
Hot towers need to keep working their magic to survive.

[jlauderdal]

Really starting to dislike the Channel 6 Miami weather team. On the news this morning he said the storm has absolutely "no chance of making a landfall" in South Florida. I'm like how can you say that with the shifts we've seen in the tracks. Then he goes on to say how the storm will probably stay in the center of the forecast track and we probably won't see any real effects from the storm besides some off the rain bands. They seem to be super dismissive with every potential storm.

Do you dislike the them or dislike their forecast? I like that they don't just repeat what nhc or nws is saying. John Morales from channel 6 tweeted yesterday afternoon he didn't see how it would go south of boca based on extrapolation and the setup, he was right. THe channel 6 viewing area will be on the west side of the system, rain bands and breezy conditions is a reasonable forecast IMO.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like center will come ashore Andros just a hair south of NHC track.

[NDG]

Really dry west of Andros.
Hot towers need to keep working their magic to survive.

https://i.imgur.com/gdftrIN.png

I noticed that last night, those dry westerly winds around h350 is what keep Isaias at bay.