ATL: ISAIAS - Models
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
NDG wrote:Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now
https://i.imgur.com/SnLPHy0.png
HWRF and HMON are terrible year over year. Always skewing the TVCN blend one way or other.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
They need to put HWRF into retirement effective today.NDG wrote:Whoever keeps putting any stock on the HWRF forecast track is crazy. 06z run, is supposed making landfall over Nassau right now
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
I definitely would lean towards the more west models right now given its look. It’s really hurting. A weak system is more likely to take a left turn. Already not a lot of models Last night had this thing going right over Andros.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
NDG wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:NDG wrote:Closer look at the 06z GFS, it shifted around 10 miles west, we are now getting a good consensus between it and the 0z Euro. Fairly close on timing as well.
https://i.imgur.com/xXezFUf.gif
https://i.imgur.com/nUYPJSv.gif
What do you think folks here in NE Palm Beach County could expect from Isaias considering we’ll be on the west side?
If it keeps its current structure not, much. Let me see what the Euro shows.
Edit: Just checked the Euro, it shows at the most wind gusts near 50 mph at the most tomorrow around noon.
So probably not even worth putting shutters up at this point.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Kat5 wrote:12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.
Also showing a landfall in So Flo
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Kat5 wrote:12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.
And ends up west of the 6z
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Kat5 wrote:12z NAM is reflecting a weaker a ridge.
But it still shifted west from previous two runs, making landfall in Palm Beach. For whatever is worth.
Edit: what is interesting that it trended stronger with Isaia's strength from previous two runs but still shifted west.
Last edited by NDG on Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
12Z NAM shifts west, looks close to landfall in Palm Beach County. Looking at NDG’s image, looks like Boynton/Delray
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
tbf, it’s weaker than 06z
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:tbf, it’s weaker than 06z
If anything looks a few mb stronger
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:tbf, it’s weaker than 06z
If anything looks a few mb stronger
Yeah, it does.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:HurricaneFrances04 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:tbf, it’s weaker than 06z
If anything looks a few mb stronger
Yeah, it does.
3km at 24 hours (12z run) has it at 985. If you go back to the 06z at 30 hours it showed 989mb. So slightly stronger. 12z HRRR stayed offshore. It does wobble toward the central FL Coast, but it doesn't really ever get ashore. Looks to still be in close call range. General consensus is a close call with either a hit in northern SC or southern NC.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
GFS a small chunk south at 18 and 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:GFS a small chunk south at 18 and 24 hours.
Indeed a south shift on the gfs.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
Looks like GFS landfall on Palm Beach
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
GFS looks like a Palm Beach County landfall (barely), no? Not sure on the hi-res but looks darn close
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
12z GFS shifts West
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models
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