ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormingB81]

Looks like Florida’s east coast is going to luck out again. How many times can this luck happen?

until it still looks terrible after crossing the gulf stream and has gone north to us, little early to be calling us lucky

I live in coastal Brevard...so yea still watching but let’s see

[cp79]

Looks like Florida’s east coast is going to luck out again. How many times can this luck happen?

until it still looks terrible after crossing the gulf stream and has gone north to us, little early to be calling us lucky

Yeah but you need ideal Conditions in the GS. Heavy wind shear is not ideal conditions.

[fci]

Looks like he’s going to be battling about 20kts of shear between now and Florida coast

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Storm moving NW with SW shear.
Living in South Florida west of the center is a pretty good place to be.

[Nuno]

Winds picking up steadily in Dade county, pretty breezy now

[hipshot]

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.

Models are about to be way off. center moving wnw..

Low level cloud deck beginning to really thicken.. new convective burst coming soon

https://i.ibb.co/qJ8c4ZM/444455577788990000.gif

That loop looks interesting. Lots of stuff going on there.

From looking at that loop, if its going to go up the east coast of Florida, he better turn on his right turn signal and get going because it sure doesn't
look that way to me......but JM2C, I'm just a weather nerd.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like Florida’s east coast is going to luck out again. How many times can this luck happen?

until it still looks terrible after crossing the gulf stream and has gone north to us, little early to be calling us lucky

Yeah but you need ideal Conditions in the GS. Heavy wind shear is not ideal conditions.

I just posted a shear map and it’s not heavy at all. Hopefully it gets worse but currently it’s only 20ish knots and who knows if that’s even correct

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like he’s going to be battling about 20kts of shear between now and Florida coast

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Storm moving NW with SW shear.
Living in South Florida west of the center is a pretty good place to be.

I guess I’m kinda where south Florida meets central Florida. Maybe I’m south central

[weathaguyry]

If the storm avoids a direct landfall on Florida, and only ends up moving over eastern NC before heading to Long Island, I think we could be looking at a stronger storm than what Is currently expected up north. 27C anomalies stretch all the way to Long Island, and I believe shear is expected to relax once the storm moves north of Florida.

[Canelaw99]

Winds picking up steadily in Dade county, pretty breezy now

Just had a nice rain shower come through southern Dade. My lawn and plants loved it!

[Steve]

If the storm avoids a direct landfall on Florida, and only ends up moving over eastern NC before heading to Long Island, I think we could be looking at a stronger storm than what Is currently expected up north. 27C anomalies stretch all the way to Long Island, and I believe shear is expected to relax once the storm moves north of Florida.

All the simulations show a pretty tight swirl up through the Tidewater and into Long Island. But it becomes north-heavy according to the HMON and HWRF last night. We'll see what they say at 12z.

[chaser1]

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.

wxman57, I've been noticing the westward arc clouds for the last couple days. In addition it clearly appears that an oddly "milky" and lower level "outflow" (lower then typical cirrus level) is just pouring outward to the south and west of the storm. I don't know how else to interpret this other then that the vertical core is much more shallow then a typical tropical cyclone, or that the broad 20+ mile "eye" is severely degraded on it's south to west side and higher on it's north and east side. Is this primarily a measure of mid level shear, or more so induced by the significantly colder dew points starting at around the 650mb level that is mixing into the circulation? I've clearly noticed that sharp demarcation of far colder dew points south and west of the storm, verses dew points in-line with actual temp soundings north and east of the storm.

[Steve]

Winds picking up steadily in Dade county, pretty breezy now

Just had a nice rain shower come through southern Dade. My lawn and plants loved it!

Next one is due within the hour. Looks like special marine warnings are out (and were out for the last one).
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Steejo91]

I could be absolutely wrong here, but the LLC is moving to the WNW off of the Andros Island. But looking at IR, I see a spin to the NE of the island over water and moving North where the convection is the most robust at the moment. I know NHC said the system is perfectly vertically stacked, but IR is giving an appearance that the MLC may be off to the NE of the LLC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[DestinHurricane]

Will need to see Euro but I would think NHC will go with a landfall at 5.

[Jr0d]

I'll remind you all that small storms like Isaias can weaken quickly and strengthen just as quickly. Pay attention on the coast of Florida.

Do you think it would be possible for thevstorm to have an even smaller core if it can manage to regain a CDO over the now exposed vigorous LLC.

While a crazy scenerio, I cant help but to think of the Isaiacs becoming a micro-cane with a tiny core that will be tough to forecast, and could possibly strengthen significantly because it is essentially created its own bubble from the collapsed thunderstorms. Obviously not likely or perhaps impossible but something that I cant stop thinking about when I look at the currrent satellite loops.

[eastcoastFL]

FWIW recent model runs are now showing it a bit stronger as it approaches the coast. The NHC has consistently called for a cat 1 on approach and they’re more often than not pretty darn close.

[jaxfladude]

Hello from the Northeast Florida area what's the thinking about Isaias post Bahamas for Florida to the Eastern Seaboard?
Prayers for those already impacted by Isaias!
One post from 4000;)

[Ian2401]

looks like the core is jusssttt finally emerging off the coast, should see convective bursts soon

[Steve]

Hello from the Northeast Florida area what's the thinking about Isaias post Bahamas for Florida to the Eastern Seaboard?
Prayers for those already impacted by Isaias!
One post from 4000;)

I think it will move back offshore (if it landfalls at all in FL) and head toward the SC/NC border and then cross west of the Outer Banks across the Tidewater and toward the NJ Shoreline up into Long Island and CT. <-- my opinion only

[GCANE]

Helicity increasing north of Andros