ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crimi481]

Lots of fuel inflow from south. May need to tighten up those masks....i think it will bulk up

[Ian2401]

also noticeably more humid here in west palm, not super humid but significantly mire than this morning

[GCANE]

AF305 on the runway.

[chaser1]

I could be absolutely wrong here, but the LLC is moving to the WNW off of the Andros Island. But looking at IR, I see a spin to the NE of the island over water and moving North where the convection is the most robust at the moment. I know NHC said the system is perfectly vertically stacked, but IR is giving an appearance that the MLC may be off to the NE of the LLC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

It really is a bit perplexing when one compared the vertical structure of a well developed hurricane and some random LLC left naked and spit out from under it's well developed mid to upper vertical core structure. This is neither though. I don't know how to categorize this storms present state other then having a tight low to mid level core but so shallow that it is becoming challenged to reach the higher levels of the atmosphere. Yet we have conducive low level conditions (low pressure environment with strong convergence and high octane SST's). Still, I can't think that left in it's current state Isaias would simply unwind over a couple days time. The conundrum is the difference that some explosive convection over center would serve to maintain and quickly rebuild a more resilient and possibly deeper eye wall. Even an increase in convection from resultant outflow boundaries occurring over the very warm waters beyond the core would typically imply increased moisture feed into the core of the storm. It really is quite weird to see this pulsating process constantly change the apparent organization of a hurricane.

[DestinHurricane]

Is that the LLC racing off to the WNW on radar? Seems to be moving quickly..

[crimi481]

That milky outflow thing is very strange

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks to be moving almost due west now. Slightest hint of north in there. Gotta believe we see a decent shift west in the NHC forecast track later. Isaias just likes being on the Western side of guidance. Has pretty much its entire existence.

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[Airboy]

Center is in the water right at the edge of the island
Coordinates: 24.783N 78.300W
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.4 mb (29.28 inHg)

[SootyTern]

Winds picking up steadily in Dade county, pretty breezy now

Just had a nice rain shower come through southern Dade. My lawn and plants loved it!

Just got that one too, neighbor! Saved me from having to water my yard during a tropical storm warning

[hohnywx]

If the storm avoids a direct landfall on Florida, and only ends up moving over eastern NC before heading to Long Island, I think we could be looking at a stronger storm than what Is currently expected up north. 27C anomalies stretch all the way to Long Island, and I believe shear is expected to relax once the storm moves north of Florida.

Per the 11 AM discussion:

Slow weakening is forecast when Isais encounters more significant southwesterly
vertical wind shear ahead of a strong upper-level trough that will be approaching the U.S. east coast on days 3-5.

[wx98]

Is that the LLC racing off to the WNW on radar? Seems to be moving quickly..

Yes. It just cleared Andros and is back over water according to a recon center pass.

[GCANE]

Cuba is starting to light up.
Looks like a new feeder band maybe moving in fast.

[gatorcane]

Is that the LLC racing off to the WNW on radar? Seems to be moving quickly..

Yes. It just cleared Andros and is back over water according to a recon center pass.

Yep this loop clearly shows this. Also west or just a bit north of west movement the last few hours:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... &y=732.875

[Javlin]

Center is in the water right at the edge of the island
Coordinates: 24.783N 78.300W
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.4 mb (29.28 inHg)

By eyeball estimated 78.4 and 24.8 about an 1/2hr ago which was .5' on C/square about thirty mile over two hours.
started @78'/24.5'

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1289610691398131713

[DestinHurricane]

Not slowing down. No sign of NW turn.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Shear is whooping Isaias. I'm thinking those shear maps might not have been overestimating after all. Isaias continues to look worse. Don't think it is a Hurricane at this point.

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[lhpfish]

Curious if it will be able to re wrap convetion

[chaser1]

Is that the LLC racing off to the WNW on radar? Seems to be moving quickly..

Yes it is. An argument to support that a weaker and more shallow low level tropical cyclone is influenced to move in a more generally westward motion, verses a better developed hurricane that is feeling the tug (or push) from a broader deep layer flow in the atmosphere. I'm gonna guess that with the center now over water, we'll begin to see some new convection over center and quickly thereafter a resumed Northwest motion per forecast. I think the way one has to look at this storm though, is how one might look at a wounded animal. Even if presumed badly injured, there is a very real capacity for it to gather itself quickly and make an unexpected lunge in an instant. Other way of looking at this is that we have a strong tropical storm that is fast approaching S. Florida. If we allow ourselves to forget history, then all we have are current conditions to look at. Some shear and dry air for sure, but also a tight core with fantastic low level convergence and the core of the storm emerging from land (albeit flat) to it's typical and very warm energy source. All I know is that any risk to South/Central Florida is temporarily enhanced by a short term jump more westward. That could have increased landfall implications for Central East Florida tomorrow.

[wx98]

Shear is whooping Isaias. I'm thinking those shear maps might not have been overestimating after all. Isaias continues to look worse. Don't think it is a Hurricane at this point.

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Recon hasn’t found any evidence of a hurricane for a few hours now...