ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

He’s on Life support right now as far as a hurricane is concerned and don’t know that much will change given the shear and dry air until he turns more Northward To NNE and aligns more with the shear to reduce it’s affect some. SST’s will help it maintain TS status but it’s very doubtful Recon will find a hurricane once they return.

[marciacubed]

You guys in Miami-Ft Laud-WPB area about to get hit with a nasty looking squall.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/fl/key-west/amx

I see the clouds darkening just to the east. Will report on conditions.

I’m here in Boynton it is getting a bit darker, light wind, no rain yet.

[SFLcane]

On fringe of band on the coast in Boca, feels and looks like TS conditions

Not much in Sunrise.

[Hammy]

I wonder if Andros was just enough land to cut off the water source and allow dry air intrusion given how much is to the west and how small the core is.

[eastcoastFL]

I doubt Isaias will have convection by the 5pm advisory, even if towers start diring soon I doubt it will be enough to officially maintain hurricane status besides.

Later this evening when thevsun starts ti set is when I expect the convection to start firing. If Isaias can maintain that convection over night then I believe we will make it back to hurticane strength. If the convection fires and fizzles like some of models are showing then Florida will not get a hurricane.

Just an amateur opinion not a legitimate forecast

I’m seeing stuff firing just nothing near the center. The center is wide open and still outrunning any convection.

[LCfromFL]

Hubby and I are on I-95N between Jax and Brunswick, GA. We’ve seen at least 15 linemen trucks heading south...make that 16. These are the working heroes after the storm. (2 more just passed). I’m always amazed at how these men come from so far away and work tirelessly to restore power for people they do not know in places they’d probably never choose to visit. If you see them working in your neighborhood after the storm, stop and tell them “thank you” and maybe offer them some cold Gatorade. These are unsung heroes and some of the best among us.

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if Andros was just enough land to cut off the water source and allow dry air intrusion given how much is to the west and how small the core is.

It looks like that’s the case to me

[DestinHurricane]

On fringe of band on the coast in Boca, feels and looks like TS conditions

You must be in another part of Boca then. I'm in east boca and nada. Actually see the sky right in over me.

[NDG]

With the HWFI now joining the rest of the models, the TVCN is showing landfall so I would expect the NHC track to move to the west as well at 5 PM. IMO.

[chaser1]

Wow...... LLC is but an entirely naked swirl spinning off the west over the last very few frames. That's the great news. The bad news is "IF" there's any chance of Isaias rebuilding its middle/upper core, that will seemingly occur closer to (or over) coastal Florida then perhaps might have occurred otherwise. Normally I see a stripped LLC pulling away from it's MLC in the deeper tropics and it's "game over". But with great inflow and high octane SST's, could this be different? If we don't soon see some popping convection over or near center over the next few hours, then it's hard for me to assume conditions to redevelop are reasonable beyond that time. One thing i'll never forget is the surprise that caught everyone off guard here in S. Florida back in 2005. In practically 24 hr.'s back on Aug. 24, an unimposing T.D. in the W. Bahamas rapidly organized into Hurricane Katrina and plowed westward (WSW) into S. Florida. Of course, what later occurred up in Louisiana was the latter historic event that finally resulted.

Again, I will keep saying this until the masses get it down real good. I have been doing this too long through the years to know this. My rule of thumb concerning weather, especially the tropics:

NEVER SAY NEVER!!!

Number 1 - The opinions and view expressed within this forum, should never be used by others in making important decisions impacting their safety. Everyone should solely heed official forecast and advisories from the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service offices in making decisions with regard to risk of severe weather including your local issue Weather Watches and Warnings.

Number 2 - Never turn your back on a potential dangerous situation. Be it a wild animal, severe weather, or the possibility of danger. That's just dumb and tempting fate. Most of all, always heed any approaching tropical storm or hurricane until all risk is gone (see point #1)

Number 3 - I too have been doing this for TOO TOO long. There are others in this forum and elsewhere, even longer then myself. Most have their own opinions but I am confident that all would always suggest using common sense, not take unnecessary risk, and clearly.... refer back to point #1. My rule of thumb concerning the weather is "pay attention", "watch the trends", and keep a balanced perspective. I am NOT here to preach to the masses, nor are the masses here to particularly listing to me. Our opinions may be considered, perhaps even influence some, but by no means should we delude ourselves into thinking that "the masses" will be saved from the faith of our words or as a result of what you or I espouse. Again, see point #1.

Number 4 - This is the Atl: ISAIAS - Hurricane Discussion forum. On IR BD Curve satellite, one cannot see a LLC. On Visable Satellite, one can see a well defined low level circulation that after a westward jog, seems to have resumed a NW'erly motion toward the S. Florida coastline. For those who have lived on a farm or been exposed to large animals in the wild, you will likely best relate to my analogy of "dung" which best describes how this tropical cyclone appears to me. The storm looks anemic and weak and I think may be slowly dying. That could change on a dime but I personally think Isaias is a tropical storm, will remain a tropical storm, and will likely spread tropcal storm conditions to portions of Florida. What would be a bit scary is if we suddenly were to see a huge burst of convection suddenly occur over center. This storm could fairly quickly deepen again.... on someone's doorstep..... "could".

[jonj4040]

In the cimss product for low level convergence, would a line with a negative value indicate divergence at the low level or sinking air?

[gatorcane]

Noticeable west wobble looking at the sat loop. It is off the GFS track by a good bit now.

[cp79]

Naked swirl storms tend to do their own thing. Can't remember the storm but there was a TS moving up into the Big Bend of Fla. several years back and it got sheared apart and the naked swirl ended up moving almost due east and onshore just north of the Tampa area around Brooksville. Seems like naked swirls just kind of do their own thing and don't do what models say. That's why I wouldn't be shocked if the actual center came onshore somewhere around Miami and moved further inland.

[CaribJam]

Is Isaias being "fed" moisture from the blob to the south east?

It seems like a feeder band is coming from the blob.

The tropics is VERY UNPREDICTABLE... ALWAYS BE PREPARED.

Stay safe everyone.

[Evenstar]

Easy sparky. NO one is giving you a tutorial. I've been a Floridian since 1976 and tracking hurricanes for more than 20 years. I've seen it all. You stated your opinion and I stated mine.

As yet another poster who has lived in Florida many years; maybe more than either of you; expressing our opinions is what this Board is for and if anyone was giving a tutorial it was not caneman.
In my opinion, as long as you are not slamming the NHC or Pro Mets, who know a heck of a lot more than those of us who have 20-40 years or more layperson experience; have at it and express your opinion, support your opinion, and don’t give us lectures or tutorials on what we can say.
(fci climbs off his soapbox and returns to watching this apparent non-event)

Yep. Little interest in posting here any longer after the tongue lashing I took after my last post.

Don't let anyone drive you away. You've got as much to contribute as anyone and should feel free to do so.

I've always found it annoying how some folks go after each other in here in such a nasty way. It's so unnecessary. The Mods are here for a reason. If someone is posting things that seem irresponsible, report it to the mods, but for the love of Odin, stop trying to nanny each other!

I'm sick of playing "Who's the Smartest Person In the Room?"

[gatorcane]

On fringe of band on the coast in Boca, feels and looks like TS conditions

You must be in another part of Boca then. I'm in east boca and nada. Actually see the sky right in over me.

Yes SE corner almost to Deerfield. Some rain and wind gusts, nothing crazy yet.

[northjaxpro]

Hubby and I are on I-95N between Jax and Brunswick, GA. We’ve seen at least 15 linemen trucks heading south...make that 16. These are the working heroes after the storm. (2 more just passed). I’m always amazed at how these men come from so far away and work tirelessly to restore power for people they do not know in places they’d probably never choose to visit. If you see them working in your neighborhood after the storm, stop and tell them “thank you” and maybe offer them some cold Gatorade. These are unsung heroes and some of the best among us.

Great post!! They truly are the undyng heroes who volunteer their time and services to help those in distress. A HUGE shoutout to those crews!!

[marciacubed]

Noticeable west wobble looking at the sat loop. It is off the GFS track by a good bit now.

I saw that west wobble also. I wondered if it was a wobble or a trend.

[SFLcane]

Just rain not much winds with these bands.

[TheDreamTraveler]

He’s on Life support right now as far as a hurricane is concerned and don’t know that much will change given the shear and dry air until he turns more Northward To NNE and aligns more with the shear to reduce it’s affect some. SST’s will help it maintain TS status but it’s very doubtful Recon will find a hurricane once they return.

At this point it doesn't even look like a hurricane. I'm thinking nhc will downgrade it at 5 pm but sometimes they like to keep the hurricane classification so people don't let their guard down since there's the possibility of multiple landfalls.