ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Where did you see that?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=lkwf1

Now down to 20kt

Thanks, but I was asking where you heard earlier on this forum that winds wouldn't be in excess of 25 mph.
I totally believe the observation.

An earlier observation from a member. You know the times when it seems a storm goes poof they go overboard.

[wx98]

Getting some pretty high SFMR values that don’t quite match the FL winds...

[GCANE]

The whole upper troposphere is lining up with this.
Incredible

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the LLC is getting tugged NE under the blow up of convection. Any METs know what this does for the track?

Most likely a rightward shift...maybe enough to miss Florida.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the LLC is getting tugged NE under the blow up of convection. Any METs know what this does for the track?

Most likely a rightward shift...maybe enough to miss Florida.

That was my thought as well, could this lead to an OTS solution if it continues to happen? Or is this a temporary thing in your opinion?

[Evil Jeremy]

One must wonder, could this get back to 75mph before the 8pm advisory? Recon already finding the west side of the flare up noticeably stronger than a couple hours ago.

[xironman]

Convection to the south beating back the dry air

[GCANE]

Good development of the northern eyewall.
Its going to be big

[tropicwatch]

Slowing down like this will definitely give it more time to intensify.

[lrak]

The last visible satellite loops show a lot has happened in the past 4 hours. Stay safe and I hope it goes north and weakens.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[DestinHurricane]

Good development of the northern eyewall.
Its going to be big

https://i.imgur.com/qrGwyAH.png

Big eyewall is bad news for FL!!!

[ozonepete]

Looks like the LLC is getting tugged NE under the blow up of convection. Any METs know what this does for the track?

The LLC isn't getting tugged or pulled into the convection. It's moving northward (probably temporary jog) as the convective burst is moving outward in all directions, including southward. The two together give the illusion of the LLC getting tugged but in reality the two are gradually getting stacked. The question is does the convection keep expanding and form a nice fat CDO over the LLC or not. And if it does, does the shear blow the convection off to the northeast again after a while. This could cycle like that all night until the shear dies down. No way to be sure at this point.

[drewschmaltz]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/iqzIujX.gif

Tugging right last several frames?

Edit: post above by ozonepete clears up that thought.

[chaser1]

Feeling better about any serious impacts of Isaias for Northeast Florida....hopefully nothing to serious for rest of CONUS Eastern Seaboard...I hope the Bahamas fared okay and prayers....the Caribbean Islands looked to have gotten raked pretty good sadly....This is not the big threat of the season, right. More serious threats likely?

Right! Still a threat however.... but probably not like the "big-boys" yet to come. Eyes open though, this storm is one sneaky bugger and you're still up-stream from S. Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/iqzIujX.gif

Tugging right last several frames?

Edit: post above by ozonepete clears up that thought.

I don’t think it’s going right. A pro met explained its an illusion as its consolidating it looks that way. I think

[DestinHurricane]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/iqzIujX.gif

Tugging right last several frames?

Edit: post above by ozonepete clears up that thought.

I don’t think it’s going right. A pro met explained its an illusion as its consolidating it looks that way. I think

Pro also said it could miss FL because of this.

[MetroMike]

Tugging right last several frames?

Edit: post above by ozonepete clears up that thought.

I don’t think it’s going right. A pro met explained its an illusion as its consolidating it looks that way. I think

Pro also said it could miss FL because of this.

It could anyhow.

[Do_For_Love]

Dang, now that's a big convection burst. Isaias still packing some punches. This storm has been all over the place since it was a wave lol

[Weatherboy1]

Most models at this time are showing a very close call to northern PBC - including those that showed some restrengthening. So still very much think this will be a “grazing”