ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Looking at the latest recon, yeah its stalling...

[CrazyC83]

Tugging right last several frames?

Edit: post above by ozonepete clears up that thought.

I don’t think it’s going right. A pro met explained its an illusion as its consolidating it looks that way. I think

Pro also said it could miss FL because of this.

It would be a close call regardless. A larger eyewall would allow that to scrape even if the center stays offshore.

[tolakram]

745
URNT12 KNHC 012227
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092020
A. 01/21:59:00Z
B. 25.19 deg N 078.74 deg W
C. 700 mb 3064 m
D. 996 mb
E. 080 deg 15 kt
F. SPIRAL BAND
G. NA
H. 42 kt
I. 118 deg 18 nm 21:54:00Z
J. 209 deg 43 kt
K. 124 deg 30 nm 21:50:30Z
L. 61 kt
M. 303 deg 5 nm 22:00:30Z
N. 049 deg 51 kt
O. 309 deg 14 nm 22:03:00Z
P. 9 C / 3050 m
Q. 16 C / 3049 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF305 1509A ISAIAS OB 18
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 042 / 27 NM 20:59:30Z
;

[kevin]

If (very big if) this stalls and doesn't hit Florida is it still expected to make landfall further up North or is an OTS course most likely in that case?

[chaser1]

Good development of the northern eyewall.
Its going to be big

https://i.imgur.com/qrGwyAH.png

Big eyewall is bad news for FL!!!

True, if it hits the coast. This storm has hardly had much westside convection

[Beachside]

Someone help me understand the wind probabilities from the NHC.

Currently, the probabilities for Tropical Storm force winds are:
Ft. Lauderdale 71%
Patrick AFB (Brevard County) 70%
Fort Pierce 82%

I would think at this point the chances of Ft. Lauderdale having tropical storm force winds are much lower at this point than coastal Brevard County.

[wx98]

If (very big if) this stalls and doesn't hit Florida is it still expected to make landfall further up North or is an OTS course most likely in that case?

I think any stall would be pretty temporary. Most models still support Carolina scrape or landfall.

[aspen]

Even with the newly flaring convection, upcoming high SSTs, partial eyewall forming, and conductive upper-level environment, I’m still skeptical of Isaias having any significant recovery. That’s due to two things: the potential of landfall within the next 24 hours, and the fact that a bit of shear can get dry air back in and cause Isaias to collapse all over again like it did earlier today. It’s also taken so much of a beating that it would need to pull off drastic reorganization to become a decent hurricane again, but that seems less likely due to the two negative environmental factors I mentioned above. Maybe it’ll surpass my pretty low expectations, but for now, I’m in Team “It Stays Weak”.

[Steve]

Good development of the northern eyewall.
Its going to be big

https://i.imgur.com/qrGwyAH.png

Big eyewall is bad news for FL!!!

True, if it hits the coast. This storm has hardly had much westside convection

It's progged by HRRR to have plenty overnight. 22z ought to run soon.

[Frank P]

Northeast quad on vis sat loop looks impressive as it continues to build, stalling would certainly not be good, don’t recall any model or anyone else forecasting a stall, slowdown perhaps, stall no.. not fully convinced it’s stalled though... Still a struggling/ redeveloping system in the grand scheme of things, but lots of folks will not be getting much sleep on the east coast of FL tonight... and I can’t blame them, this would certainly an all nighter for me if it was approaching the NGOM like this for sure!

[Nimbus]

Recon finding plenty of 40 knot winds on the Florida side of the storm, we get a lot of line slap that trips the transformers with those kinds of winds. They can reset them with a pole in minutes to hours weather permitting. Hopefully the intensification is kept in check a while longer by mid level shear as forecast, the anticyclone at 200 MB's looks kind of scary to us amateurs though..

[Evil Jeremy]

Someone help me understand the wind probabilities from the NHC.

Currently, the probabilities for Tropical Storm force winds are:
Ft. Lauderdale 71%
Patrick AFB (Brevard County) 70%
Fort Pierce 82%

I would think at this point the chances of Ft. Lauderdale having tropical storm force winds are much lower at this point than coastal Brevard County.

Chances increase as the storm gets closer to you. Lauderdale was at 52% I think with the prior advisory. The short term west shift at the 5pm advisory also increased those chances.

[drewschmaltz]

Brutally hot here in Orlando. Afternoon clouds are just starting to build now. Feels like one of the hottest days of the year. I've been here for all my 35 years and it's always a little more pleasant when a storm is near. Cooler temps and "calm before the storm" feeling that I've always attributed to the lowering pressure (loose at best scientific data to back this up). Anyway, all of that is missing today - feels very much like a normal, hot, summer day.

So... it just got that cooler calm before the storm feel. Anyone else in CFL experiencing the same?

[toad strangler]

Looks like the LLC is getting tugged NE under the blow up of convection. Any METs know what this does for the track?

Most likely a rightward shift...maybe enough to miss Florida.

We have certainly seen that before recently! #Matthew

[Nore]

Anyone else seeing that wrap of the partial eyewall on radar?

[wx98]

NOAA plane been doing loops for an hour. Must be looking for something.

[rigbyrigz]

One of the better TWC experts just said he doesn't think there is any rapid reintensification underway because the NE convective burst has its own mini-rotation, and is not at all vertically aligned with the low-level center rotation.

Good news for the folks I guess; less so for those wanting action-jackson.

[otowntiger]

Brutally hot here in Orlando. Afternoon clouds are just starting to build now. Feels like one of the hottest days of the year. I've been here for all my 35 years and it's always a little more pleasant when a storm is near. Cooler temps and "calm before the storm" feeling that I've always attributed to the lowering pressure (loose at best scientific data to back this up). Anyway, all of that is missing today - feels very much like a normal, hot, summer day.

So... it just got that cooler calm before the storm feel. Anyone else in CFL experiencing the same?

i was out doing a bit of yard work and a northeast breeze starting Blowing and it did in fact feel unusually cool.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the LLC is getting tugged NE under the blow up of convection. Any METs know what this does for the track?

Most likely a rightward shift...maybe enough to miss Florida.

We have certainly seen that before recently! #Matthew

Well John Morales just said expect gusts to 65mph in Broward county this evening.

[BYG Jacob]

On the one hand, it’s great to see the storm degrade, on the other, that means any follow up storms (and given how the year has gone so far, there will be more storms that follow isaias) will have some of the warmest waters and a nice pocket of OHC.