ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drewschmaltz]

Boom

[mutley]

Rapid intensification???

I was wondering when someone might say those words.

If Isaias can establish some outflow, I think it is possible. Right know nope.

Amateur opinion, not a forecast

I agree with you. It is truly a toss up. But that's what makes it interesting. What's going to happen?

[hurricaneCW]

Models agree that this won't do much until Monday when it's accelerating N/NNE and infused with extreme jet dynamics.

System may be intensifying despite being slightly inland fron the Carolinas to New England.

Pressures aren't too low but storm has had a history of producing strong winds. A Mid-Atlantic/New England strong TS (65-70mph) is definitely in the cards.

[Cflstorm]

Brutally hot here in Orlando. Afternoon clouds are just starting to build now. Feels like one of the hottest days of the year. I've been here for all my 35 years and it's always a little more pleasant when a storm is near. Cooler temps and "calm before the storm" feeling that I've always attributed to the lowering pressure (loose at best scientific data to back this up). Anyway, all of that is missing today - feels very much like a normal, hot, summer day.

So... it just got that cooler calm before the storm feel. Anyone else in CFL experiencing the same?

i was out doing a bit of yard work and a northeast breeze starting Blowing and it did in fact feel unusually cool.

Just went out and enjoyed that same great coolness! Too bad for the wrong reason.

[wx98]

Not seeing any indication as of now that this is more than a 50 kt tropical storm.

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)

There haven’t been any SFMR readings from either plane anywhere close to that, so something is off...

[ronjon]

Why is it stalling? Thankfully I don't think it can hit palm beach county now that it is east and stalling.

It's still moving...tough to see with blow up of convection and low level center just off to the SW of the midlevel center. If the centers stack, it'll be a hurricane again. UKMET, Euro, and GFS all.place the center near or over WPB tomorrow morning as a possible CAT 1. And its going to crawl at 5-6 mph all day tomorrow.

[Jr0d]

Not seeing any indication as of now that this is more than a 50 kt tropical storm.

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)

There haven’t been any SFMR readings from either plane anywhere close to that, so something is off...

There was an unflagged 60kt SFMR wind from the Air Force recon about 2 hour ago, shortly after they got oit there.

[wx98]

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)

There haven’t been any SFMR readings from either plane anywhere close to that, so something is off...

There was an unflagged 60kt SFMR wind from the Air Force recon about 2 hour ago, shortly after they got oit there.

Well yes, two hours ago. But both planes have been through that region since and haven’t found anything close.

[wx98]

Why is it stalling? Thankfully I don't think it can hit palm beach county now that it is east and stalling.

It's still moving...tough to see with blow up of convection and low level center just off to the SW of the midlevel center. If the centers stack, it'll be a hurricane again. UKMET, Euro, and GFS all.place the center near or over WPB tomorrow morning as a possible CAT 1. And its going to crawl at 5-6 mph all day tomorrow.

Not moving much atm according to various recon center drops in the same place.

[DestinHurricane]

Why is it stalling? Thankfully I don't think it can hit palm beach county now that it is east and stalling.

It's still moving...tough to see with blow up of convection and low level center just off to the SW of the midlevel center. If the centers stack, it'll be a hurricane again. UKMET, Euro, and GFS all.place the center near or over WPB tomorrow morning as a possible CAT 1. And its going to crawl at 5-6 mph all day tomorrow.

Those models ran before the drama.

[rigbyrigz]

Levi's Saturday night video is posted

[Kazmit]

This storm is the polar opposite of what is used to be. It was huge and fast as a wave and now it’s small and slow.

[Jevo]

Made a quick trip to Deerfield Beach in Northern Broward County this morning.

[mutley]

This storm is the polar opposite of what is used to be. It was huge and fast as a wave and now it’s small and slow.

Unpredictable?

[mutley]

Made a quick trip to Deerfield Beach in Northern Broward County this morning. https://i.imgur.com/tC42Lx5.jpg

That's a GREAT picture!

[ozonepete]

https://imgur.com/JrKGWqK

that blow up is crazy....it completely overtook the center of circulation, not sure I have ever seen that before so close to landfall

Rapid intensification???

No. Too much dry air and shear.

[ozonepete]

Made a quick trip to Deerfield Beach in Northern Broward County this morning. https://i.imgur.com/tC42Lx5.jpg

Beautiful. I thought it was the Flemish Cap.

[rigbyrigz]

Levi is saying that a lot of shearing from the 250MB level will continue through the night, so even if there are convective flare-ups that look like it's growing, they will blow off AGAIN, and maybe rehappen 2-3 times. Only if over water most of the day, or when daybreak comes does it appear to have a fuller chance to become a Cat1 again and stay for a bit.

[gatorcane]

Pompano Beach Airpark just reported a wind gust of 36mph the last hour.

[Jr0d]

Well yes, two hours ago. But both planes have been through that region since and haven’t found anything close.

59kt flight level winds just reported from Miss Piggy.