ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

intermittent convection in the face of persistent sheer is a recipe for underperformance

[DestinHurricane]

Getting our strongest gusts yet in Boca.

[drewschmaltz]

https://imgur.com/RB1Rtwh

Hey GCANE. Where is that anticyclone you were talking about earlier? Is the shear going to let up?

The sheer and the anticyclone are kind of one in the same.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shear is blowing the convection off of the center again. You would think that shear was much greater than 20 knots or so. Jeez haha. Haircut soon, again? You can see the blow up moving NE while the center is still in the same spot, kind of cool looking.

[GCANE]

https://imgur.com/RB1Rtwh

Hey GCANE. Where is that anticyclone you were talking about earlier? Is the shear going to let up?

Close, real close

[AutoPenalti]

Hasn’t rained, haven’t heard wind and I’m in Coconut Creek right off the turnpike.


Then again I’m inside so..

[DestinHurricane]

https://imgur.com/RB1Rtwh

Hey GCANE. Where is that anticyclone you were talking about earlier? Is the shear going to let up?

Close, real close

https://i.imgur.com/zO7hYKn.png

So shear should let up soon?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the pulse of convection is starting to wane and get sheared to the east. The core might be able to contain some storms though. Very tough to find the center. This is not going to be a hurricane again tonight. That said, if the shear relaxes a little we know how quickly it can blow up.

The 250MB shear is supposed to move off after daybreak. Give the guy some open warm water then and get your popcorn ready.

He will be over land by the time the shear lets up, or at least very close to land. This is kind of a perfect situation for the least amount of impacts in the US from a land-falling cyclone. Shear keeps it weak until it skirts to close to the coast to get going.

[GCANE]

Hey GCANE. Where is that anticyclone you were talking about earlier? Is the shear going to let up?

Close, real close

https://i.imgur.com/zO7hYKn.png

So shear should let up soon?

As long as the deep convection keeps firing.

[TheDreamTraveler]

So many here think that the NHC intensity forecast will bust. I'm not so sure. Right now I'm not going to go against NHC but I wouldn't be surprised if it never became a hurricane again.

Levi Cowan alluded that Isaias probably has a better time strengthening once it's away from Florida and might become a hurricane again before it landfalls on the Carolinas. So if it doesn't yet the window to do it is still there later.

[umguy1]

Hasn’t rained, haven’t heard wind and I’m in Coconut Creek right off the turnpike.


Then again I’m inside so..

I'm in Wilton Manors and it just started pouringn. The wind has really picked up too.

[drewschmaltz]

intermittent convection in the face of persistent sheer is a recipe for underperformance

Inspirational and anogolous to life's journey.

[gatorcane]

Hasn’t rained, haven’t heard wind and I’m in Coconut Creek right off the turnpike.


Then again I’m inside so..

Been really gusting near the beach here in Boca. This setup may be an example where inland South Florida just a few miles or more inland sees far less winds than right along the coast. Had the storm landfalled and moved inland, different story for your locale.

[supercane4867]

Current intensity appears to be 50kts at best based on recon.

[GCANE]

Seeing how the radial fingers are spinning clockwise, the anticyclone is on top of the deep convection or slightly north.
If the LLC tracks into the anticyclone, the vort column will quickly stack.

[Jr0d]

Looks like the pulse of convection is starting to wane and get sheared to the east. The core might be able to contain some storms though. Very tough to find the center. This is not going to be a hurricane again tonight. That said, if the shear relaxes a little we know how quickly it can blow up.

The 250MB shear is supposed to move off after daybreak. Give the guy some open warm water then and get your popcorn ready.

Plus this pulse(and possibly later ones) or helping to moisten up the atmosphere.

[Sal Collaziano]

Naked swirl alert...again

https://i.imgur.com/6AdFOjP.gif

“Oh, poop! Is that Florida?!” <runs>

[gfsperpendicular]

Unfortunately the model runs that nailed that first blowup also depict this pulse down and another blow up. Steve has some detailed posts about it in the models thread I believe.

[GCANE]

Getting more definitive circulation.
These mesovorts keep popping up.
The ramp up in outflow will help gel this.
I would guess the anticyclone is slightly north.

[GCANE]

Tons of lightning in this thing