ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Hasn’t rained, haven’t heard wind and I’m in Coconut Creek right off the turnpike.


Then again I’m inside so..

I’m in the township we are neighbors.

I live right in front of CCHS.

[wx98]

Complex situation. The last recon flight did show a small pressure drop when flying over that mid level center.

Maybe this’ll just go ahead and spawn a baby to spin off to the east

[Hurricaneman]

Complex situation. The last recon flight did show a small pressure drop when flying over that mid level center.

Maybe this’ll just go ahead and spawn a baby to spin off to the east

What a relocation would do is keep it farther off the coast and be a bigger problem for North Carolina and the outer banks and possibly hurricane conditions in the Northeast

[CronkPSU]

Complex situation. The last recon flight did show a small pressure drop when flying over that mid level center.

Maybe this’ll just go ahead and spawn a baby to spin off to the east

time to reup my post for the cmc fujiwara model from wednesday!?!??!

[tropicwatch]

NHC taking there time with the 11pm forecast cone graphic.

[wzrgirl1]

Tons of lightning in this thing

I thought that there was usually no lightning in a warm core system.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC taking there time with the 11pm forecast cone graphic.

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1289760883451793408

[Steve]

Tons of lightning in this thing

I thought that there was usually no lightning in a warm core system.

Sometimes over water while clouds are rising

[wx98]

Tons of lightning in this thing

I thought that there was usually no lightning in a warm core system.

Hurricanes generally consist of thunderstorms...

[Hurricaneman]

Tons of lightning in this thing

I thought that there was usually no lightning in a warm core system.

Usually it has to be a strengthening tropical system to do that, but there seems to be some instability to do that

[Steejo91]

Tons of lightning in this thing

I thought that there was usually no lightning in a warm core system.

Usually it has to be a strengthening tropical system to do that, but there seems to be some instability to do that

It is also entirely possible the the dry air in mid levels could be actually aiding in more robust with steepening lapse rates and enhancing lift and acts as a temporary lid.

[gfsperpendicular]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the LLC jump under the MLC at this point.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think I buy the center relocation under the convection. Current llc appears intact on the western edge and I’m not seeing any low clouds streaming into the center of the convection. If a relocation is underway it must be in the very early stages.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well tomorrow is it, in terms of any last chance of organizing before the predicted weakening and the accelerated speed starts.....It's had its chances, but it's slowly running out of time....

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289770825143459840

[HeeBGBz]

Can someone tell me what is going to pull this northward? What's stopping it from continuing west into the gulf?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can someone tell me what is going to pull this northward? What's stopping it from continuing west into the gulf?

lack of ridging and a surplus of toughing.

[MarioProtVI]

Outflow boundaries getting spat out again due to collapse of convection and downdrafts. Zero chance of becoming a hurricane again.

[Steve]

Can someone tell me what is going to pull this northward? What's stopping it from continuing west into the gulf?

Run watervapor or any model, even the bad ones, at 500mb.

[ConvergenceZone]

Outflow boundaries getting spat out again due to collapse of convection and downdrafts. Zero chance of becoming a hurricane again.

I agree, I think this is done....I mean, it's showing absolutely zero signs or organizing, and it's not as if conditions are all of the sudden going to get great for it. I think 65 mph is as strong as it will get it. It's been fun, BUT frustrating to track though...Learned that even though it's 2020, it doesn't mean that a system can magically overcome shear and dry air.......

I agree with a couple of other folks that said if this was late August/September, we'd probably be looking at a cat 3/cat 4 hurricane, because all of that dry air wouldn't be out there...