ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kat5]

North Carolina is sure going to get hit hard.

[tolakram]

floater loop

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=860.8807373046875&y=969.875

[gatorcane]

Florida’s 15 year old streak of no east coast HURRICANE landfall lives on!

tick, tick, tick, tick.......

Quite possibly. I think this storm is just showing how the Bermuda High is not stronger than usual this year. It is acting like a typical a year. My gut tells me Florida will make it through another year without any significant hits from the east. The Caribbean will be where to watch later in the season. Time will tell...

Back to the storm. As is typical, most weather is over the Bahamas and not over Florida. Thankfully the storm didn’t have conditions to get too strong.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Steve]

Florida’s 15 year old streak of no east coast HURRICANE landfall lives on!

tick, tick, tick, tick.......

Quite possibly. I think this storm is just showing how the Bermuda High is not stronger than usual this year. It is acting like a typical a year.

I disagree. But even if the Bermuda-Azores double high (often in place this year) wasn't stronger than usual, it's having more influence. Exhibit A:

[jconsor]

Discussion on potential impacts from the mid-Atlantic to New England:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1289905018045259776

[Kazmit]

Another impressive blowup of convection. NC might have to watch out if the shear stops blowing it off.

[StormingB81]

I’m by the coast in Brevard county and I already see my neighbors putting their patio stuff back out and sitting outside. Golfers are all out golfing. Seems like a normal Sunday here. People are all out and about. Oh and of course the posts “complaining of another hurricane warning that missed” you’d think they’d be happy it didn’t hit but they’re mad because “it was hyped up and nothing happened again”

[Steve]

I’m by the coast in Brevard county and I already see my neighbors putting their patio stuff back out and sitting outside. Golfers are all out golfing. Seems like a normal Sunday here. People are all out and about. Oh and of course the posts “complaining of another hurricane warning that missed” you’d think they’d be happy it didn’t hit but they’re mad because “it was hyped up and nothing happened again”

Lots of people suck. Haha

[Steve]

Discussion on potential impacts from the mid-Atlantic to New England:

J,

Is it because it will be up against the upper trough as it goes farther north? And if so, do I remember correctly that that type of setup tends to lead to heaviest precipitation on the western side of a system? Seems like that's been the case many times even when systems weren't necessarily undergoing baroclinic change.

[Ivanhater]

Florida’s 15 year old streak of no east coast HURRICANE landfall lives on!

tick, tick, tick, tick.......

Quite possibly. I think this storm is just showing how the Bermuda High is not stronger than usual this year. It is acting like a typical a year.

I disagree. But even if the Bermuda-Azores double high (often in place this year) wasn't stronger than usual, it's having more influence. Exhibit A:

https://i.imgur.com/FK6s8zn.jpg

Great post, Steve.

[wxman57]

No data from recon plane in the past hour?

[hipshot]

P3 may not have enough power to fight a downdraft.
C130 would be better to run the tower.

P3 and C130s have the same engines, they are just flipped 180° on the P3. Obviously the C130 has a stronger airframe.

Do they both have variable pitched props?

The P3 does, don't know about the C130.

[AutoPenalti]

This has definitely been one of the toughest forecasts for 2020. Waking up to this being a good clip offshore instead of brushing the coast like models were forecasting.

[Jr0d]

I’m by the coast in Brevard county and I already see my neighbors putting their patio stuff back out and sitting outside. Golfers are all out golfing. Seems like a normal Sunday here. People are all out and about. Oh and of course the posts “complaining of another hurricane warning that missed” you’d think they’d be happy it didn’t hit but they’re mad because “it was hyped up and nothing happened again”

Complacency seems to be a problem throughout that part of Florida. Its been a long time since the Space Coast had had hurricane conditions(2004, and that was barely hurricane conditions on the coast despite what some say) with many near misses and warnings. Eventually the luck will run out and hopefully the residents will take the next storm to hit there seriously. If it catches people off guard like Charlie did to SW Florida, there will be serious and deadly consequences.

[CronkPSU]

Looked at the radar here in East Orlando and said, what a great time for a run, all clear, better get it in now, forty minutes later, back home after a feeder band soaked me for the last 30 minutes...what does this mean going forward, I have no idea but thanks for coming to my Ted Talk

[wx98]

No data from recon plane in the past hour?

Recon data this year has been

[wx98]

The MLC is now just north of western Grand Bahama. Melbourne radar detects a slight northward movement after moving ENE earlier. Hardly any rain in S FL. Pretty good band moving through Orlando and Daytona; another smaller one coming into Melbourne.

[tiger_deF]

This storm has been a massive pain in the ass to forecast all the way back to the central Atlantic. I do have a feeling it has more surprises in store for us though.

[djones65]

Gcane?
What does "i vote red - for now" mean? I didnt understand.

Thanks