ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

No data from recon plane in the past hour?

Still nothing? This is starting to worry me.

[Steve]

This storm has been a massive pain in the ass to forecast all the way back to the central Atlantic. I do have a feeling it has more surprises in store for us though.

Yeah, Bastardi has it on his Saturday summary video as possibly trying to get to a 2 toward the Carolinas. He noted he may be overplaying it a little, but he expects it to strengthen a little this afternoon and maybe try to make a run for Florida. But when it's back offshore, that's when he thinks it is going to try to make another run at intensification. He also discussed that question I had for JConsor which is the interaction between a coming up tropical system and a trough to the west realigning the heaviest rainfall toward the west. He put up the EC wind map, and there are plenty of 60+ winds along the coast on the way up and lots of 3-5" rainfall rates onshore from SC up through CT/MA. Finally, he showed where just off the East Coast (and the extreme NW Gulf) are more favorable areas for Phase 4 of the MJO which we are in and which has been being discussed in the Indicators thread on Talkin' Tropics. He thinks 10-14 days it will try to get back to 1 or 2 from 4 and the circle. Cold air/trough comes into the west (Phase 4) and positive height anomalies return to the Northeast. And there you have the setup we've been seeing all year with Phases 8/1/2 spinning up storms. The difference after August 15th is the strength potential.

Anyway, tl;dr is that it definitely has more surprises in store over the next 2-3 days.

[Steve]

Gcane?
What does "i vote red - for now" mean? I didnt understand.

Thanks

He drew two centers a couple pages back. One was pink, one was red. The "poll" was which one would take over. He wasn't being political, though the pun was entertaining on the heels of the CCR posts and references yesterday.

[GCANE]

Gcane?
What does "i vote red - for now" mean? I didnt understand.

Thanks

It was my post earlier this morning.
Would Isaias remain the large pink circulation or reform into the red circulation?

[TheStormExpert]

Well here in SE Florida we lucked out yet again with no landfalling hurricane or sustained hurricane winds or gusts to hurricane force. One of these days that clock will run out and we won’t be luck so don’t let this be false sense of direction.

[StormingB81]

I could be wrong but looking at this storm this morning the Florida coast shouldn’t let their hairs down juuuuuuust yet. I could be wrong but never trust a storm until it has passed. It’s 2020 who knows what could happen lol

[CronkPSU]

I could be wrong but looking at this storm this morning the Florida coast shouldn’t let their hairs down juuuuuuust yet. I could be wrong but never trust a storm until it has passed. It’s 2020 who knows what could happen lol

definitely....it could be rebuilding again, if it ever stacks up and wraps around, you and I can both get some real nasty stuff

[AnnularCane]

This storm has been a massive pain in the ass to forecast all the way back to the central Atlantic. I do have a feeling it has more surprises in store for us though.

Storms like that make the season more interesting though. At least if you're only forecasting for fun.

[wx98]

I could be wrong but looking at this storm this morning the Florida coast shouldn’t let their hairs down juuuuuuust yet. I could be wrong but never trust a storm until it has passed. It’s 2020 who knows what could happen lol

definitely....it could be rebuilding again, if it ever stacks up and wraps around, you and I can both get some real nasty stuff

That new blowup is huge. If it can not blow away and get stacked again then maybe we will see something.

[AdamFirst]

Looking like the mid-level spin on radar is pushing back toward the coast. Course correction? Closer to the LLC?

[djones65]

Thanks GCANE!
I appreciate your work and your graphics!
Cheers!

[TheDreamTraveler]

This storm has been a massive pain in the ass to forecast all the way back to the central Atlantic. I do have a feeling it has more surprises in store for us though.

Yeah, Bastardi has it on his Saturday summary video as possibly trying to get to a 2 toward the Carolinas. He noted he may be overplaying it a little, but he expects it to strengthen a little this afternoon and maybe try to make a run for Florida. But when it's back offshore, that's when he thinks it is going to try to make another run at intensification. He also discussed that question I had for JConsor which is the interaction between a coming up tropical system and a trough to the west realigning the heaviest rainfall toward the west. He put up the EC wind map, and there are plenty of 60+ winds along the coast on the way up and lots of 3-5" rainfall rates onshore from SC up through CT/MA. Finally, he showed where just off the East Coast (and the extreme NW Gulf) are more favorable areas for Phase 4 of the MJO which we are in and which has been being discussed in the Indicators thread on Talkin' Tropics. He thinks 10-14 days it will try to get back to 1 or 2 from 4 and the circle. Cold air/trough comes into the west (Phase 4) and positive height anomalies return to the Northeast. And there you have the setup we've been seeing all year with Phases 8/1/2 spinning up storms. The difference after August 15th is the strength potential.

Anyway, tl;dr is that it definitely has more surprises in store over the next 2-3 days.

He also said it was going to get to a 3 by the time it was up near Florida lol...besides jb reposting so much misinformation on his twitter page a lot of his tropical analysis and forecasts are pretty spot on...but yeah he definitely overdid the intensity of this one.

[drewschmaltz]

3pm HRRR would take a lot of people by surprise, including the person writing this.

[CronkPSU]

I am not sure if it is strengthening but it is definitely expanding a whole lot, will be interesting to keep watching over the next 12-14 hours as it approaches Orlando/Central Florida

[NDG]

AF Recon just took off again.

AF300 1909A ISAIAS HDOB 03 20200802
141130 3024N 08856W 0146 ///// //// +299 +233 000000 000 /// /// 23
141200 3024N 08856W 0146 ///// //// +294 +231 000000 000 /// /// 23
141230 3025N 08856W 0145 ///// 0159 +280 +231 000000 000 /// /// 23
141300 3025N 08855W 0145 00010 0158 +275 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
141330 3025N 08855W 0146 00010 0158 +271 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
141400 3025N 08855W 0146 00010 0158 +273 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
141430 3025N 08855W 0145 00010 0158 +274 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
141500 3025N 08855W 0146 00010 0158 +270 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
141530 3025N 08855W 0147 00009 0158 +276 +232 000000 000 /// /// 03
141600 3025N 08855W 0147 00007 0156 +279 +221 000000 000 /// /// 03
141630 3025N 08855W 0141 00009 0153 +275 +206 304001 004 /// /// 03
141700 3024N 08856W 0141 00013 0146 +268 +205 328004 005 /// /// 03
141730 3023N 08856W 9937 00183 0147 +254 +185 336006 007 /// /// 03
141800 3022N 08858W 9725 00373 0145 +242 +170 325012 014 /// /// 03
141830 3021N 08859W 9349 00710 0141 +221 +154 309006 013 /// /// 03
141900 3019N 08900W 8959 01084 0147 +196 +123 249006 007 /// /// 03
141930 3018N 08900W 8681 01356 0145 +185 +114 245007 008 /// /// 03
142000 3017N 08901W 8386 01658 0139 +179 +101 249010 010 /// /// 03
142030 3015N 08902W 8151 01901 0138 +167 +091 244010 011 /// /// 03
142100 3014N 08903W 7896 02167 0136 +150 +083 227011 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

saved loop

[wx98]

AF Recon just took off again.

AF300 1909A ISAIAS HDOB 03 20200802
141130 3024N 08856W 0146 ///// //// +299 +233 000000 000 /// /// 23
141200 3024N 08856W 0146 ///// //// +294 +231 000000 000 /// /// 23
141230 3025N 08856W 0145 ///// 0159 +280 +231 000000 000 /// /// 23
141300 3025N 08855W 0145 00010 0158 +275 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
141330 3025N 08855W 0146 00010 0158 +271 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
141400 3025N 08855W 0146 00010 0158 +273 +228 000000 000 /// /// 03
141430 3025N 08855W 0145 00010 0158 +274 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
141500 3025N 08855W 0146 00010 0158 +270 +229 000000 000 /// /// 03
141530 3025N 08855W 0147 00009 0158 +276 +232 000000 000 /// /// 03
141600 3025N 08855W 0147 00007 0156 +279 +221 000000 000 /// /// 03
141630 3025N 08855W 0141 00009 0153 +275 +206 304001 004 /// /// 03
141700 3024N 08856W 0141 00013 0146 +268 +205 328004 005 /// /// 03
141730 3023N 08856W 9937 00183 0147 +254 +185 336006 007 /// /// 03
141800 3022N 08858W 9725 00373 0145 +242 +170 325012 014 /// /// 03
141830 3021N 08859W 9349 00710 0141 +221 +154 309006 013 /// /// 03
141900 3019N 08900W 8959 01084 0147 +196 +123 249006 007 /// /// 03
141930 3018N 08900W 8681 01356 0145 +185 +114 245007 008 /// /// 03
142000 3017N 08901W 8386 01658 0139 +179 +101 249010 010 /// /// 03
142030 3015N 08902W 8151 01901 0138 +167 +091 244010 011 /// /// 03
142100 3014N 08903W 7896 02167 0136 +150 +083 227011 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

Must’ve had a mechanical problem

[tolakram]

Imgur chops off the pause, annoying.

Saved loop using screen2gif

[Steve]

I agree Traveler. Like with the models, you have to filter some of what he says due to known biases.

But no one besides maybe Air Force Met and 57 (along with RIP John Hope and RIP Wxman007/Jason Kelly) has taught me more about what to look for and deduce out of patterns. I generally stay off social media because of dumb political crap. Several of the weatherbell mets put out more than their fair share of that. But they do know weather patterns. And that's why I bother watching (or sometimes only skimming through) his Saturday summaries.

We'll have to see what happens this afternoon while it heats up over Florida. That definitely brings the central and northern coasts of Florida along with some of the interior cities back into play for at least some tropical storm conditions. But if it consolidates farther east, I think there's a better chance of a higher end TS or possibly Cat 1 near South Carolina (and likely tropical storm conditions all the way up through New England).

I also agree with Annular Cane. If you're tracking for fun and personal education instead of for chasing storms, you want to see lots of jukes and jives and unpredictable moves because they can help expand your understanding of what is possible.

[hipshot]

3pm HRRR would take a lot of people by surprise, including the person writing this.

What is the HRRR? I've seen it referenced several times.