ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

Recon finding 60 KT FL wind in the NW quadrant, that's quite a bit higher than what previous recon flights found earlier.

wait, in the northWEST?

[ColdMiser123]

Recon finding 60 KT FL wind in the NW quadrant, that's quite a bit higher than what previous recon flights found earlier.

wait, in the northWEST?

Yes, likely higher than that in the NE quadrant.

[tarheelprogrammer]

994 mb is the pressure, so pressure has not dropped too much then. Right where it should be. Interesting wind speeds picked up in the NW quad.

[Jr0d]

One wobble to the west can make a huge differenve to the Space Coast this afternoon/evening. The heavy stuff with strong TS winds is just offshore. Right now it looks like it will miss by a few miles.

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1289967090229706758

[northjaxpro]

Recon finding 60 KT FL wind in the NW quadrant, that's quite a bit higher than what previous recon flights found earlier.

wait, in the northWEST?

Yes .
.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is there any chance this thing becomes a hurricane again? Shear should keep it in check, correct? Question for pro-METs

[aspen]

This pass is probably enough to warrant an upgrade to 60 kt/995 mbar. However, higher winds might exist in unsampled parts of Isaias.

[StormingB81]

A couple wobbles west and we may have an oops

[tiger_deF]

Once Isaias aligns with the trough when it's path shifts NE and southerly shear is no longer a negative component I see no reason why he couldn't become a hurricane again

[CronkPSU]

A couple wobbles west and we may have an oops

this was in the Levi tweet as well..

 https://twitter.com/TRUMP_MAGA_KAG/status/1289968003262504962

[GCANE]

A good deal of popups in that dry air.
Won't be dry that much longer.

[wxman57]

Is there any chance this thing becomes a hurricane again? Shear should keep it in check, correct? Question for pro-METs

Most definitely. Its best chance was always going to be on-approach to the Carolinas.

[ColdMiser123]

Once Isaias aligns with the trough when it's path shifts NE and southerly shear is no longer a negative component I see no reason why he couldn't become a hurricane again

Would argue that it's more likely than not that this should reattain hurricane strength at some point before making landfall in the Carolinas because of the flow being more favorably aligned with concurrent favorable upper level divergence.

Pretty surprised there's no hurricane watch in place currently along the Carolina coast.

[emeraldislenc]

It looks better on satellite. It could make a run to hurricane.

[Nimbus]

The convective bursts have been a little off to the northeast of the LLC and so the inflow recenters the LLC a little further NE. Good for the Florida coastline but going to be trouble once the storm starts moving with the flow ahead of the front. The official track has landfall on the border of the Crolina's, but my early guess would be North Carolina due to the relocation effect from the shear. The ridge evolution forecast will be important, a strengthening ridge could pull the storm in further west.

[Ken711]

This storm has been a massive pain in the ass to forecast all the way back to the central Atlantic. I do have a feeling it has more surprises in store for us though.

Yeah, Bastardi has it on his Saturday summary video as possibly trying to get to a 2 toward the Carolinas. He noted he may be overplaying it a little, but he expects it to strengthen a little this afternoon and maybe try to make a run for Florida. But when it's back offshore, that's when he thinks it is going to try to make another run at intensification. He also discussed that question I had for JConsor which is the interaction between a coming up tropical system and a trough to the west realigning the heaviest rainfall toward the west. He put up the EC wind map, and there are plenty of 60+ winds along the coast on the way up and lots of 3-5" rainfall rates onshore from SC up through CT/MA. Finally, he showed where just off the East Coast (and the extreme NW Gulf) are more favorable areas for Phase 4 of the MJO which we are in and which has been being discussed in the Indicators thread on Talkin' Tropics. He thinks 10-14 days it will try to get back to 1 or 2 from 4 and the circle. Cold air/trough comes into the west (Phase 4) and positive height anomalies return to the Northeast. And there you have the setup we've been seeing all year with Phases 8/1/2 spinning up storms. The difference after August 15th is the strength potential.

Anyway, tl;dr is that it definitely has more surprises in store over the next 2-3 days.

He also said it was going to get to a 3 by the time it was up near Florida lol...besides jb reposting so much misinformation on his twitter page a lot of his tropical analysis and forecasts are pretty spot on...but yeah he definitely overdid the intensity of this one.

Bastardi almost always over-hypes his hurricane forecasts from what I have seen. He may be close with his predicted tracks, but is always over-hyping the intensity aspect.

[tolakram]

17:03Z

[supercane4867]

The Carolinas should be prepared for a CAT1-2 hurricane landfall. Shear has already done its job. Now it’s the storm’s turn.

[GCANE]

Big drop in lightning activity