ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I think it could get interesting Palm Bay north to Titusville between 7pm and midnight. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas experienced cat 1 conditions and we get an upgrade back to hurricane this evening in that time period.

Such winds on the coast would surprise me.

[NDG]

Looks like it found a break in the shear, now analyzed near 15 knots, but not sure about that.

[northjaxpro]

Very heavy cell within spriral band moving right now over Southeast Duval County and approaching Jax Beach. Lightning being detected in that cell. I am sure strong wind gusts are in that cell.

[NDG]

It should be pumped to 70 mph.

175600 2803N 07904W 8399 01594 0114 +144 +040 100050 062 050 027 00
175630 2802N 07905W 8397 01595 0114 +141 +040 097062 065 047 023 00
175700 2801N 07907W 8448 01542 0112 +138 +040 092061 063 045 034 00
175730 2759N 07908W 8413 01573 0108 +138 +039 095060 064 052 039 00
175800 2758N 07910W 8430 01552 0103 +138 +039 095054 060 057 041 00
175830 2756N 07911W 8422 01559 0099 +142 +040 100052 056 059 038 00
175900 2755N 07913W 8424 01555 0101 +138 +040 102051 053 056 034 00
175930 2754N 07914W 8427 01547 0091 +144 +040 107051 053 057 037 00
180000 2753N 07916W 8422 01549 0084 +149 +040 118046 050 062 032 03
180030 2751N 07917W 8435 01531 0075 +154 +040 116041 044 060 033 00
180100 2750N 07918W 8412 01553 0074 +154 +040 107040 044 060 041 00
$$

[jdjaguar]

Very heavy cell within spriral band moving right now over Southeast Duval County and approaching Jax Beach. Lightning being detected in that cell. I am sure strong wind gusts are in that cell.

Just finished clearing the pool deck.
Wind gusting a bit....I’m near the Mayo for reference.

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289986058227130368

[Ken711]

Interesting no upgrade on winds and no new watches/warnings.

I wonder what NHC sees to keep it a TS on not strengthening on its current track in the 2:00 PM advisory.

[northjaxpro]

Very heavy cell within spriral band moving right now over Southeast Duval County and approaching Jax Beach. Lightning being detected in that cell. I am sure strong wind gusts are in that cell.

Just finished clearing the pool deck.
Wind gusting a bit....I’m near the Mayo for reference.

How strong you would gauge the wind there at Mayo Clinic area?

[NDG]

Perhaps shear has indeed let up some, the mid level vorticity has been able to keep up with LLC closer for a longer period than yesterday.

[Sanibel]

Just on the outer edge here...Overcast, with punchy breezes...

Synoptic shearing from dry air and kinetic shearing from wind currents...

[storm4u]

Looks like it found a break in the shear, now analyzed near 15 knots, but not sure about that.

https://i.imgur.com/UGSoRhO.gif

Could really blow up tonight in my opinion.. less shear less dry air.

[jdjaguar]

Very heavy cell within spriral band moving right now over Southeast Duval County and approaching Jax Beach. Lightning being detected in that cell. I am sure strong wind gusts are in that cell.

Just finished clearing the pool deck.
Wind gusting a bit....I’m near the Mayo for reference.

How strong you would gauge the wind there at Mayo Clinic area?

20-25 gusts earlier.
But bulk of the cell skipped south of my locale

[cp79]

This is great news for Fla. that the worst of the conditions appear that they are going to stay well offshore. The stall last night helped as it allowed it to start making its turn. Some bands here and there will move in but nothing bad.

With shear lessening, the concern now will start moving towards the Carolinas and north who may catch the brunt of this.

[northjaxpro]

Perhaps shear has indeed let up some, the mid level vorticity has been able to keep up with LLC closer for a longer period than yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/KO2f9Ju.gif

I was just about to mention thst, at least since the LLC has moved to now off shore of Fort Pierce.

If that shear snslysis is anywhere close to be accurate and it has dropped off to 15 kts, well.now, that would certainly change things a bit.and really will.make it suddenly vety interesting the next 12-18 hours off our coast here.

[Steve]

Agreed NDG as some of the banding has made it out to the Gulf. That radar presentation makes it look like the low center is at the coast. That's what the weather.com radar derived model had for the next couple hours. Some pinks are popping out closer to the mid-level center. Some earlier models had a peak around 5ish today before easing back for DMIN and picking up a bit later. We'll see if some of the storms will fire more along the coast in Central and NE Florida moreso than they did earlier in Southeast Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[SouthFLTropics]

Some nice gusts in Saint Lucie West up in the 40’s but very dry as you all can see on radar. Occasional light sprinkle. My dogs love the gusts and stand towards them with noses pointed up.

I’m down by Becker Road and my dog does the same thing. Isaias proved to be a good drill for Hurricane preps. Shakes the rust off from over the winter. Now we only have August, September, October, and November to go. I’m afraid this won’t be the last time we do this drill this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the WV loop, there is outflow on the west side trying to establish, but if you look at the pop up thunderstorms over FL the tops are being blown off to the east.

[toad strangler]

Perhaps shear has indeed let up some, the mid level vorticity has been able to keep up with LLC closer for a longer period than yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/KO2f9Ju.gif

I’m right on the outer SW edge of the LLC. Gusts picking up but dry dry dry

[chaser1]

Looks like it found a break in the shear, now analyzed near 15 knots, but not sure about that.

https://i.imgur.com/UGSoRhO.gif

Could really blow up tonight in my opinion.. less shear less dry air.

So, by the looks of radar and given their geographic positioning i'd say there's still a reasonable possibility of "Florida landfall" at or close to the Titusville/Cocoa area in the hours to come.

[northjaxpro]

Just finished clearing the pool deck.
Wind gusting a bit....I’m near the Mayo for reference.

How strong you would gauge the wind there at Mayo Clinic area?

20-25 gusts earlier.
But bulk of the cell skipped south of my locale

Thanks JD. This was the first of many to pivot through and a few of these bands will pack a punch of heavy downpours and strong wind gusts going forward from now until Isaias passes us by our area by late tomorrow.