ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Some nice gusts in Saint Lucie West up in the 40’s but very dry as you all can see on radar. Occasional light sprinkle. My dogs love the gusts and stand towards them with noses pointed up.

I’m down by Becker Road and my dog does the same thing. Isaias proved to be a good drill for Hurricane preps. Shakes the rust off from over the winter. Now we only have August, September, October, and November to go. I’m afraid this won’t be the last time we do this drill this year.


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You are my neighbor! Yeah, we’ll be quite lucky if we don’t At least get a legit scare again this season when reviewing basin indicators. I’m 100% prepped.

[StormingB81]

Looks like it found a break in the shear, now analyzed near 15 knots, but not sure about that.

https://i.imgur.com/UGSoRhO.gif

Could really blow up tonight in my opinion.. less shear less dry air.

So, by the looks of radar and given their geographic positioning i'd say there's still a reasonable possibility of "Florida landfall" at or close to the Titusville/Cocoa area in the hours to come.

That could surprise some people here

[drewschmaltz]

I think it could get interesting Palm Bay north to Titusville between 7pm and midnight. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas experienced cat 1 conditions and we get an upgrade back to hurricane this evening in that time period.

Such winds on the coast would surprise me.

Well then Id be surprised too, because obviously you have vastly more knowledge. My thought process is that the llc is located over warm waters, the pulsing of this storm has been such that it expands rapidly when the LLC becomes somewhat exposed. Yesterday it was rapid, but rapidly blown by sheer. It looks aligned in time that the closest LLC approach will coincide with that rapid growth in CDO but with reduced sheer, better outflow, and more moist atmosphere - therefore more potent and persistent than yesterday.

[psyclone]

Looking at the WV loop, there is outflow on the west side trying to establish, but if you look at the pop up thunderstorms over FL the tops are being blown off to the east.

that's exactly what's happening. it's a half-a-storm and that portion is offshore. deep convection is ripped off and only shallow convective party bands are operating over florida.

[chaser1]

Some nice gusts in Saint Lucie West up in the 40’s but very dry as you all can see on radar. Occasional light sprinkle. My dogs love the gusts and stand towards them with noses pointed up.

I’m down by Becker Road and my dog does the same thing. Isaias proved to be a good drill for Hurricane preps. Shakes the rust off from over the winter. Now we only have August, September, October, and November to go. I’m afraid this won’t be the last time we do this drill this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You are my neighbor! Yeah, we’ll be quite lucky if we don’t At least get a legit scare again this season when reviewing basin indicators. I’m 100% prepped.

You guys are both close to my daughter's house off Savannah Rd in Jensen. Looks like you weren't that far from getting some sustained high end T.S. winds. I was sure the core was going to come right over your area. Seems like there's still a decent chance of some backside squalls to roll on in for a little while.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it found a break in the shear, now analyzed near 15 knots, but not sure about that.

https://i.imgur.com/UGSoRhO.gif

Could really blow up tonight in my opinion.. less shear less dry air.

EURO has always until last night's 00Z run, showed a landfall in the Brevard County area, from Melbourne to Cape Canaveral.


So, by the looks of radar and given their geographic positioning i'd say there's still a reasonable possibility of "Florida landfall" at or close to the Titusville/Cocoa area in the hours to come.

[wxman57]

Note the multiple outflow boundaries progressing westward across Florida on high-res visible satellite. That's what happened before it weakened yesterday and the center became exposed. Those outflow boundaries form when squalls collapse near the center. We could be witnessing another weakening about to occur.

[NDG]

If convection keeps refiring the LLC will not get anywhere close to Cape Canaveral like the Euro keeps insisting.

[Nimbus]

Indian River was the first county to go over 1% power outage.
Must be a few tropical storm gusts in the area.
Starting to look a little detached from the mid level center so hopefully the worst feeder bands stay off shore.

https://poweroutage.us/area/county/316

[CronkPSU]

Could really blow up tonight in my opinion.. less shear less dry air.

EURO has always until last night's 00Z run, showed a landfall in the Brevard County area, from Melbourne to Cape Canaveral.


So, by the looks of radar and given their geographic positioning i'd say there's still a reasonable possibility of "Florida landfall" at or close to the Titusville/Cocoa area in the hours to come.

NHC has landfall there yesterday for a few of the updates in their forecast tracks

[OuterBanker]

A slight shift to the east for NC so far. The west shift for Raleigh area would have left uswith little rain and a bit of wind. With the east shift we should see tropical storm conditions. I was totally confident that it would be a non event. But currently I do see the possibility that it could be more than most expected here.

[NDG]

Note the multiple outflow boundaries progressing westward across Florida on high-res visible satellite. That's what happened before it weakened yesterday and the center became exposed. Those outflow boundaries form when squalls collapse near the center. We could be witnessing another weakening about to occur.

Deep convection keeps refiring as I type this. When those squalls came through Orlando earlier they did not feel like outflow boundaries, it was very warm and muggy.

[storm4u]

MLC firing off new storms now?

Note the multiple outflow boundaries progressing westward across Florida on high-res visible satellite. That's what happened before it weakened yesterday and the center became exposed. Those outflow boundaries form when squalls collapse near the center. We could be witnessing another weakening about to occur.

[aspen]

Best track is updated to 60 kt/994 mbar, which is roughly what I was expecting based on the latest recon passes.

[NDG]

46 mph wind gust in Vero Beach's airport, I am sure that on the Barrier Islands they're stronger than this.

Conditions at: KVRB observed 02 August 2020 18:25 UTC
Temperature: 27.8°C (82°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 77%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.73 inches Hg (1006.9 mb)
Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.5 m/s)
gusting to 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.8 m/s)
Visibility: 8 miles (13 km)
Ceiling: 2700 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1800 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2700 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 4100 feet AGL
Present Weather: automated observation with no human augmentation;
there may or may not be significant weather present at this time
KVRB 021825Z AUTO 03024G40KT 8SM FEW018 BKN027 OVC041 28/23 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 03040/1818 T02780233

[Mouton]

2PM cites movement at 345 degrees. Looks to me closer if not at 355. My sense is the COC does not cross 80W and it looks like the pace is increasing a bit. It is getting closer to the land side of the GS, 28c verses 30c also. There is also not a huge pressure gradient to enhance it and some inhibition from the weak UUL approaching from the east. So, IMO, unprofessional as it is, I believe the storm should wallow due N for a while then turn with the steering currents to the NE. Landing somewhere from the NC/SC boarder to the NC coast.

This storm has made me wacky over the last 36 hours so I question exactly what I am seeing on sat. Apparently I am not the only one as Bastardi saw a potential cat 2 yesterday afternoon.

[chaser1]

If convection keeps refiring the LLC will not get anywhere close to Cape Canaveral like the Euro keeps insisting.

Yep, makes sense. Not unless some new convection were to pop over or left of center. So far there's little evidence to expect that to occur given dry air and shear. I was gonna take the hour drive to head on over to the coast but am seriously questioning if it would be worth it.

[NDG]

Successful Splash down, not by the dropsonde but the astronauts capsule over the GOM.
The GOM looks flat.

[Evenstar]

Successful Splash down, not by the dropsonde but the astronauts capsule over the GOM.
The GOM looks flat.

It was picture perfect BEAUTIFUL too!

[wxman57]

Note the multiple outflow boundaries progressing westward across Florida on high-res visible satellite. That's what happened before it weakened yesterday and the center became exposed. Those outflow boundaries form when squalls collapse near the center. We could be witnessing another weakening about to occur.

Deep convection keeps refiring as I type this. When those squalls came through Orlando earlier they did not feel like outflow boundaries, it was very warm and muggy.

They're definitely outflow boundaries. Look at the visible loop. They're not circulating around Isaias. No cool air involved 100+ miles from the source.