ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Holding my breath the whole descent just in case but looks like a perfect splashdown. A lil bit of good news for 2020

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1289999722703282179

[wxman57]

Center is getting near SW edge of convection again. Shear must have increased. Definitely not looking as impressive as earlier.

[aspen]

I think the center might be getting exposed again. 65 kt is off the table unless shear can become a little less hostile.

[tarheelprogrammer]

115 MPH gusts? That can't be correct.

 https://twitter.com/PeeDee_WxSC/status/1290000065063350276

[wxman57]

I think the center might be getting exposed again. 65 kt is off the table unless shear can become a little less hostile.

Recon position of 27.4N/79.6W is SW of the convection. I.E., exposed again. I'm still predicting hurricane strength tomorrow when relative wind shear decreases.

[NDG]

18z Sounding from Tampa still showing dry & strong westerly winds above h45 punching into Isaias, I'm surprised convection keeps re-firing.

[Evenstar]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

[Vdogg]

https://twitter.com/mikeadcockwx/status/1289975304203595776?s=21

[wxman57]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

You will likely see sustained tropical storm-force wind around late Tuesday morning. Maybe 40-45 mph with higher gusts.

[psyclone]

Note the multiple outflow boundaries progressing westward across Florida on high-res visible satellite. That's what happened before it weakened yesterday and the center became exposed. Those outflow boundaries form when squalls collapse near the center. We could be witnessing another weakening about to occur.

Deep convection keeps refiring as I type this. When those squalls came through Orlando earlier they did not feel like outflow boundaries, it was very warm and muggy.

They're definitely outflow boundaries. Look at the visible loop. They're not circulating around Isaias. No cool air involved 100+ miles from the source.

the convection over Florida is far skimpier than a standard summer day which often involves some deep thunderstorm activity for someone..depending on where convergence sets up. We're just not getting enough vertical growth to yield meaningful cooling downdrafts. If anything...so far the system is inhibiting our standard order summer convective pattern...which typically jams in early august. there's no 40k+ cloud tops over the state today and i don't expect any. Standard thunderstorm aficionados will be better off when this system departs the scene.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

How susceptible is your exact area to coastal flooding? I ask because the tidal cycle will be running high Monday into Tuesday as is.

[CronkPSU]

can see the center pretty exposed near the coast on the visible but on the radar loop looks like the MLC is trying to stack up again

[NDG]

Note the multiple outflow boundaries progressing westward across Florida on high-res visible satellite. That's what happened before it weakened yesterday and the center became exposed. Those outflow boundaries form when squalls collapse near the center. We could be witnessing another weakening about to occur.

Deep convection keeps refiring as I type this. When those squalls came through Orlando earlier they did not feel like outflow boundaries, it was very warm and muggy.

They're definitely outflow boundaries. Look at the visible loop. They're not circulating around Isaias. No cool air involved 100+ miles from the source.

They might be now but not when they came through my area, cells were rotating towards the SW.

[Steve]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

Looks like tropical storm conditions on just about every model. Rainfall will be on the western side of the storm, so it should be a little stronger there then what anyone got in SEFL

[wxman57]

Sat pic with obs. Hard to see through the cirrus on this shot, but crosshairs are recon position, SW of convection.

[AdamFirst]

Just had the power flicker here. Peeking outside, there is a sideways drizzle. Hardcore stuff.

[supercane4867]

Every time it starts to look better then it gets battered with shear again. Poor little system

[EquusStorm]

Surprisingly hard to pick out the exact location of the LLC on radar for such a relatively strong storm, there just isn't much if any convection directly around it.

Incredibly fascinating to be able to watch the tilted MLC on the same radar view though. Seems very solid a mile off the surface, just having some issues in the low levels.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What I'm waiting to see is if there will be any extratropical reintensification due to barolinic forcing once the system gets caught up in the trough and rides the coast.