ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The 5pm statement from Stacey Stewart certainly is interesting. The way I interpret it is that not only could Isaias get back to hurricane strength it will stay strong longer than average because of the baroclinc interaction with the front.

Stacey Stewart should never retire. this country really needs him.

Recon is diving south through the center of the latest convective burst so we will see if the last pass missed the true center. Don't think it is weakening as fast tonight..

[Steve]

Unfortunately this storm will contribute to more complacency for people all across the Florida coast.

We can't fix complacency. Willful stupidity comes with the modern American tradition. People will find any reason to be contrary, even simple stuff like wearing a mask during a once in a century pandemic. Not much we can do about those heading for a Darwinesque experience. Y'all Floridians have been saying that about complacent people since I logged onto CFHC back in the mid 1990's. What's difficult though is that many people who move to Florida don't have experience with hurricanes. And if they want to eat that cheese too, it's going to cost some of them their lives at some point. Recall back when Hurricane Irma was coming up on the west side of Florida and a lot of people on tv in Southeast Florida were under 65+ wind and whining about "it wasn't supposed to come here" which of course it didn't. Get educated, stay educated and you can protect yourself and only hope that others can come to their senses IMHO.

The low center has to be right at Cape Canaveral at this point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[aspen]

Recon seems to be showing a pretty broad pressure field. Even outside the maximum wind radius, it’s recording pressures of <1000 mbar.

[hohnywx]

The 5pm statement from Stacey Stewart certainly is interesting. The way I interpret it is that not only could Isaias get back to hurricane strength it will stay strong longer than average because of the baroclinc interaction with the front.

Stacey Stewart should never retire. this country really needs him.

If you didn’t read this post earlier today from @jconsor, give it a read. It was very interesting:

https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 7434467330

[CyclonicFury]

Recon seems to be showing a pretty broad pressure field. Even outside the maximum wind radius, it’s recording pressures of <1000 mbar.

I think the NOAA P-3 aircraft has been having some issues with extrapolated pressure measurements lately.

[supercane4867]

Winds are not impressive so far. Highest SFMR didn't even reach 50kts on the two passes.

[ozonepete]

Any educated guesses as to the storm surge at Charleston worst case scenario? Will it will be anywhere near Irma, which was only a TS when it was at its closest to CHS inland in N FL and yet CHS had its highest storm surge since Hugo and even higher than Matthew at ~4.7 feet causing major inundation downtown and elsewhere (see link below)
Thanks in advance.

My gut says it can't be nearly as high as Irma and yet I never thought Irma's surge was going to exceed Matthew, especially with it only a TS and hundreds of miles away at closest approach. So, I'm a bit gunshy.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/TropicalStormIrma-Sep2017

Hi Larry.

Try these pretty new NHC products. There are 2 others to the left of the one I circled. And of course go to the Charleston City website: https://www.charleston-sc.gov/391/Government



Good luck.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing the pressure is off by at least a few millibars. The last AF pass had 994 and there was a sudden drop from 1005 to 995 which could not be explained by heights on the aircraft. My guess is that it's actually 990 or so, not 980.

[aspen]

Recon seems to be showing a pretty broad pressure field. Even outside the maximum wind radius, it’s recording pressures of <1000 mbar.

I think the NOAA P-3 aircraft has been having some issues with extrapolated pressure measurements lately.

It’s definitely having some problems. 980 mbar extrapolated seems too low.

[ozonepete]

This is starting to stack well vertically and consolidate. Should be strengthening as recon samples it.

[ColdMiser123]

Extrapolated pressure looks too low as others have already noted.

Also interesting that the new center fix is to the north and actually a little east of the 5 pm NHC coordinates. So the NNE jog we saw toward the end of the AF recon a few hours ago looks to have continued.

Low level center still looks a bit disjointed from where the best convection is, but that could change relatively soon with shear vectors becoming more aligned.

[Orlando]

Just a quick THANK YOU!!! to everyone here who participated in the discussion and helped those of us who are not very knowledgeable about storm dynamics. You have been terrific and I appreciate you all. Gotta go rest up now and prepare for the next storm.

[mutley]

In the last several hours, radar seems to suggest that the persistent blob of convection, as well as the upper level circulations,have been moving
ever so slowly west toward the LLC and track. Proof of lessening shear maybe?

[ColdMiser123]

995 mb dropsonde with a 22 KT wind close to the center, so that supports 993 mb pressure. Confirming that extrapolated pressure is quite a bit off with this NOAA3 flight.

[Evenstar]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

Looks like tropical storm conditions on just about every model. Rainfall will be on the western side of the storm, so it should be a little stronger there then what anyone got in SEFL

Thank you.

[rigbyrigz]

Unfortunately this storm will contribute to more complacency for people all across the Florida coast.

We can't fix complacency. Willful stupidity comes with the modern American tradition. People will find any reason to be contrary, even simple stuff like wearing a mask during a once in a century pandemic. Not much we can do about those heading for a Darwinesque experience. Y'all Floridians have been saying that about complacent people since I logged onto CFHC back in the mid 1990's. What's difficult though is that many people who move to Florida don't have experience with hurricanes. And if they want to eat that cheese too, it's going to cost some of them their lives at some point. Recall back when Hurricane Irma was coming up on the west side of Florida and a lot of people on tv in Southeast Florida were under 65+ wind and whining about "it wasn't supposed to come here" which of course it didn't. Get educated, stay educated and you can protect yourself and only hope that others can come to their senses IMHO.

The low center has to be right at Cape Canaveral at this point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Katrina "surprise and awe" did wonders to battle complacency, but over time, folks forget. Here in the Big Bend there was a similar late spurt from Irma; 8 foot surge killed the pier and beach house, and there was (pretty much unreported) 93 mph gust recorded 20 miles inland. None of that was really in the forecast, or even reported, that late intensity from the bathwater warm Gulf the last 20-30 miles northward track. A real reminder to stay alert anything can happen with the fickle foos.

[AJF060288]

D-max should be interesting. Hello all from Jacksonville, NC here, looks like things could get bumpy here tomorrow night.

[Evenstar]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

You will likely see sustained tropical storm-force wind around late Tuesday morning. Maybe 40-45 mph with higher gusts.

Thank you.

[Steve]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

Looks like tropical storm conditions on just about every model. Rainfall will be on the western side of the storm, so it should be a little stronger there then what anyone got in SEFL

Thank you.

Hopefully you'll get to enjoy it without any issues but some leaves and branches to pick up. I haven't looked at the models thread since this morning, so what I can't say is how long you might see the conditions. I know the NHC said it would be accelerating in time. You might want to start running the mesoscale models and RAP stuff tomorrow to see what they indicate for where you are and how long. Many of them have 1 hour intervals (you can find shorter as well) which should indicate to a fairly close degree what you will see and for how long. From looking at it yesterday and this morning, it looked like a few hours event.

[NCWeatherChic]

Amen. We don't need a strong 'cane in the Carolinas.

It's super hot and humid here as it is!

More like sweltering Besides, I don't want any hurricane much less one I'm struggling to even pronounce it's name thanks to my deep southern roots.

I've been calling it isaiahs in my head. It's iss-ah-ee-ah <-- 4 syllables
https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/12 ... 7517638656

Dude! Thank you, I can actually pronounce it now. That's not how I was hearing it on my local news station. I love how she enunciated that very clearly. You rock, thx for the link!