ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

 https://twitter.com/henrylwilson1/status/1290062817672888320

[Evenstar]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

How susceptible is your exact area to coastal flooding? I ask because the tidal cycle will be running high Monday into Tuesday as is.

Vdogg's answer pretty much summed it up!

And thank you for the heads up on the tides. Just what we need...

[Evenstar]

Looks like tropical storm conditions on just about every model. Rainfall will be on the western side of the storm, so it should be a little stronger there then what anyone got in SEFL

Thank you.

Hopefully you'll get to enjoy it without any issues but some leaves and branches to pick up. I haven't looked at the models thread since this morning, so what I can't say is how long you might see the conditions. I know the NHC said it would be accelerating in time. You might want to start running the mesoscale models and RAP stuff tomorrow to see what they indicate for where you are and how long. Many of them have 1 hour intervals (you can find shorter as well) which should indicate to a fairly close degree what you will see and for how long. From looking at it yesterday and this morning, it looked like a few hours event.

Many, many thanks! I will keep a close eye on things for sure.

[ozonepete]

D-max should be interesting. Hello all from Jacksonville, NC here, looks like things could get bumpy here tomorrow night.

Welcome!

[Beachside]

Unfortunately this storm will contribute to more complacency for people all across the Florida coast.

We can't fix complacency. Willful stupidity comes with the modern American tradition. People will find any reason to be contrary, even simple stuff like wearing a mask during a once in a century pandemic. Not much we can do about those heading for a Darwinesque experience. Y'all Floridians have been saying that about complacent people since I logged onto CFHC back in the mid 1990's. What's difficult though is that many people who move to Florida don't have experience with hurricanes. And if they want to eat that cheese too, it's going to cost some of them their lives at some point. Recall back when Hurricane Irma was coming up on the west side of Florida and a lot of people on tv in Southeast Florida were under 65+ wind and whining about "it wasn't supposed to come here" which of course it didn't. Get educated, stay educated and you can protect yourself and only hope that others can come to their senses IMHO.

The low center has to be right at Cape Canaveral at this point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Matthew to me was very telling. Cat 4, headed straight towards Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral, and here in Satellite Beach on the barrier island, I had a ton of friends who decided to stay. Since Matthew turned at the last possible moment, in their minds, they were right. I have some friends and neighbors who probably wouldn't leave under any circumstances.

[Steve]

^^

Yeah, I'm never 100% sure what I'm going to do until I get faced with something. We'd pretty much stay for a TS/1/2 and just move the cars to a parking garage downtown since my apartment is 15' up. But I'm not sure about 3/4/5 threats which hopefully I won't have to deal with later this season.

Midlevel Center popping out or just a pixel issue?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... b&loop=yes

[mutley]

I hate to say it, but on radar, we could be seeing the beginning of an eye wall building attempt.\
I don,t see how, but it sure looks like it might be.

[rigbyrigz]

I hate to say it, but on radar, we could be seeing the beginning of an eye wall building attempt.\
I don,t see how, but it sure looks like it might be.

Don't "hate". Isaias has many friends here. Some even rooting "for a wall".

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, for us here in South Florida, Isaias was a perfect fire drill, a preseason game so to speak. I'd like to say that was our event for the year but being that it is only August 2nd I know better. I think we all know we're in for some busy weeks and late nights ahead. Good luck to all of our friends at points north of here that have yet to deal with Isaias. Hopefully he won't be anymore for you than it was for us. Also, thoughts and prayers to the people in Hispaniola who dealt with some major mudslides and flooding.

[mutley]

I hate to say it, but on radar, we could be seeing the beginning of an eye wall building attempt.\
I don,t see how, but it sure looks like it might be.

Don't "hate". Isaias has many friends here. Some even rooting "for a wall".

I don't root.

[Vdogg]

 https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/1290072347987378177




Looks like this time the comeback is real.

[aspen]

990 mbar from this pass. That seems more reasonable than the likely erroneous 980 mbar.

[Nimbus]

Melbourne radar is showing echoes from the mid level center above 10,000 ft, recon found the LLC a little SW of there.
The two are not quite stacked but we aren't seeing the mid level center completely sheared off like we did yesterday.
New recon flight will be in soon.

[eastcoastFL]

^^

Yeah, I'm never 100% sure what I'm going to do until I get faced with something. We'd pretty much stay for a TS/1/2 and just move the cars to a parking garage downtown since my apartment is 15' up. But I'm not sure about 3/4/5 threats which hopefully I won't have to deal with later this season.

Midlevel Center popping out or just a pixel issue?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... b&loop=yes

My wife and I have the same idea, our rule is Cat 2 or below we will stay. 3 and up we’re taking off. We went through Wilma and it was pretty scary. Frances and Jeanne were intense too but Wilma was another story.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking healthy for now

[DestinHurricane]

Unfortunately this storm will contribute to more complacency for people all across the Florida coast.

We can't fix complacency. Willful stupidity comes with the modern American tradition. People will find any reason to be contrary, even simple stuff like wearing a mask during a once in a century pandemic. Not much we can do about those heading for a Darwinesque experience. Y'all Floridians have been saying that about complacent people since I logged onto CFHC back in the mid 1990's. What's difficult though is that many people who move to Florida don't have experience with hurricanes. And if they want to eat that cheese too, it's going to cost some of them their lives at some point. Recall back when Hurricane Irma was coming up on the west side of Florida and a lot of people on tv in Southeast Florida were under 65+ wind and whining about "it wasn't supposed to come here" which of course it didn't. Get educated, stay educated and you can protect yourself and only hope that others can come to their senses IMHO.

The low center has to be right at Cape Canaveral at this point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Matthew to me was very telling. Cat 4, headed straight towards Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral, and here in Satellite Beach on the barrier island, I had a ton of friends who decided to stay. Since Matthew turned at the last possible moment, in their minds, they were right. I have some friends and neighbors who probably wouldn't leave under any circumstances.

I'm in the camp of not leaving under any circumstances. I never evacuated in the panhandle for any of the storms in my signature and I still will not in S FL even though I live right on water. But I live in concrete bloc condo so wouldn't recommend to people in wood homes. If I lived in a wood frame home though I would certainly evac for 3/4/5.

To me, still looks very disorganized. Don't think it will get back to hurricane.

[eastcoastFL]

We can't fix complacency. Willful stupidity comes with the modern American tradition. People will find any reason to be contrary, even simple stuff like wearing a mask during a once in a century pandemic. Not much we can do about those heading for a Darwinesque experience. Y'all Floridians have been saying that about complacent people since I logged onto CFHC back in the mid 1990's. What's difficult though is that many people who move to Florida don't have experience with hurricanes. And if they want to eat that cheese too, it's going to cost some of them their lives at some point. Recall back when Hurricane Irma was coming up on the west side of Florida and a lot of people on tv in Southeast Florida were under 65+ wind and whining about "it wasn't supposed to come here" which of course it didn't. Get educated, stay educated and you can protect yourself and only hope that others can come to their senses IMHO.

The low center has to be right at Cape Canaveral at this point.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Matthew to me was very telling. Cat 4, headed straight towards Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral, and here in Satellite Beach on the barrier island, I had a ton of friends who decided to stay. Since Matthew turned at the last possible moment, in their minds, they were right. I have some friends and neighbors who probably wouldn't leave under any circumstances.

I'm in the camp of not leaving under any circumstances. I never evacuated in the panhandle for any of the storms in my signature and I still will not in S FL even though I live right on water. But I live in concrete bloc condo so wouldn't recommend to people in wood homes. If I lived in a wood frame home though I would certainly evac for 3/4/5.

To me, still looks very disorganized. Don't think it will get back to hurricane.

So you’d be one of those stubborn people sticking behind if you had a Michael or Dorian making landfall in your area? Michael leveled neighborhoods.

[jdjaguar]

^^

Yeah, I'm never 100% sure what I'm going to do until I get faced with something. We'd pretty much stay for a TS/1/2 and just move the cars to a parking garage downtown since my apartment is 15' up. But I'm not sure about 3/4/5 threats which hopefully I won't have to deal with later this season.

Midlevel Center popping out or just a pixel issue?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... b&loop=yes

It’s all about the surge.
My rule of thumb is stay through 2.
Leave at 3.

[toad strangler]

^^

Yeah, I'm never 100% sure what I'm going to do until I get faced with something. We'd pretty much stay for a TS/1/2 and just move the cars to a parking garage downtown since my apartment is 15' up. But I'm not sure about 3/4/5 threats which hopefully I won't have to deal with later this season.

Midlevel Center popping out or just a pixel issue?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... b&loop=yes

I'm not anywhere close to an area that has flooded before so i stay.

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please. Thanks.