ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[syfr]

I hate to say it, but on radar, we could be seeing the beginning of an eye wall building attempt.\
I don,t see how, but it sure looks like it might be.

Don't "hate". Isaias has many friends here. Some even rooting "for a wall".

I don't root.

Nor do people in the path of the storm.....

[ColdMiser123]

Quite a bit of >70 KT FL wind in the NE quadrant with this latest AF pass.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Matthew to me was very telling. Cat 4, headed straight towards Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral, and here in Satellite Beach on the barrier island, I had a ton of friends who decided to stay. Since Matthew turned at the last possible moment, in their minds, they were right. I have some friends and neighbors who probably wouldn't leave under any circumstances.

I'm in the camp of not leaving under any circumstances. I never evacuated in the panhandle for any of the storms in my signature and I still will not in S FL even though I live right on water. But I live in concrete bloc condo so wouldn't recommend to people in wood homes. If I lived in a wood frame home though I would certainly evac for 3/4/5.

To me, still looks very disorganized. Don't think it will get back to hurricane.

So you’d be one of those stubborn people sticking behind if you had a Michael or Dorian making landfall in your area? Michael leveled neighborhoods.

Look at his signature. he did stick around for Michael.

[cainjamin]

Quite a bit of >70 KT FL wind in the NE quadrant with this latest AF pass.

Looks to be on the cusp of hurricane status once again.

[jlauderdal]

Well, for us here in South Florida, Isaias was a perfect fire drill, a preseason game so to speak. I'd like to say that was our event for the year but being that it is only August 2nd I know better. I think we all know we're in for some busy weeks and late nights ahead. Good luck to all of our friends at points north of here that have yet to deal with Isaias. Hopefully he won't be anymore for you than it was for us. Also, thoughts and prayers to the people in Hispaniola who dealt with some major mudslides and flooding.

October is the busiest month in floriduh for hurricanes

[rigbyrigz]

Levi (whose Sunday evening Vid is up) reminds us there is actually a small area of hurricane watch currently for the Carolinas border... he points out (per GFL and other reference points) that there is a window of opportunity - baroclinic conditions - favorable for regaining hurricane strength after it passes the Florida-Georgia border offshore Monday.

[ozonepete]

Levi (whose Sunday evening Vid is up) reminds us there is actually a small area of hurricane watch currently for the Carolinas border... he points out (per GFL and other reference points) that there is a window of opportunity - baroclinic conditions - favorable for regaining hurricane strength after it passes the Florida-Georgia border offshore Monday.

It will get back to hurricane before then probably by the looks of things.

[CronkPSU]

MLS continues to slides towards the LLC....still no precipitation inland but you can see the storm expanding on shore finally

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, for us here in South Florida, Isaias was a perfect fire drill, a preseason game so to speak. I'd like to say that was our event for the year but being that it is only August 2nd I know better. I think we all know we're in for some busy weeks and late nights ahead. Good luck to all of our friends at points north of here that have yet to deal with Isaias. Hopefully he won't be anymore for you than it was for us. Also, thoughts and prayers to the people in Hispaniola who dealt with some major mudslides and flooding.

October is the busiest month in floriduh for hurricanes

Oh yeah, absolutely. When I said weeks, I mean the next 12 to 14 weeks.


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[JetFuel_SE]

Starting to get that look on MW, again.

[CronkPSU]

I have lived just 30 miles off the coast for the last 6 hurricane seasons and before that 15 years on the other side of Orlando and two years in Myrtle Beach and with almost every storm, you can feel it the night before and then you get band after band after band and then the steady and scary stuff but besides heavy band that came thru this morning...not this time. Usually the clouds race by in that familiar circular pattern but heck I just walked down the street to get the mail and if I didn’t have this board and the internet, I would have no clue there is the center of a hurricane (or darn near a hurricane) less than 60 miles from me...it is dry out there and just a small breeze.

Sooooo many things had to go to right for this not to be at least a pretty good hit over my house and for all them to happen and hardly even get an inch of rain seems near impossible, Florida really dodged another bullet on this one...hope everyone north of me including my old homes of Myrtle Beach and the Poconos get as lucky

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking at the WV loops, the westerly shear seems to be relaxing - much slower from what I can see than what has been in place the past 4 days or so. Been expecting storm-relative shear vector to change when this system got about to JAX or more north. Seems to be letting up about 12 hours earlier? Have to give it couple more hours to be sure.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Looks like it's maybe about to close a circulation based on MW imagery.

[Visioen]

With those water temps it will take every little chance it gets.

[vbhoutex]

I have lived just 30 miles off the coast for the last 6 hurricane seasons and before that 15 years on the other side of Orlando and two years in Myrtle Beach and with almost every storm, you can feel it the night before and then you get band after band after band and then the steady and scary stuff but besides heavy band that came thru this morning...not this time. Usually the clouds race by in that familiar circular pattern but heck I just walked down the street to get the mail and if I didn’t have this board and the internet, I would have no clue there is the center of a hurricane (or darn near a hurricane) less than 60 miles from me...it is dry out there and just a small breeze.

Sooooo many things had to go to right for this not to be at least a pretty good hit over my house and for all them to happen and hardly even get an inch of rain seems near impossible, Florida really dodged another bullet on this one...hope everyone north of me including my old homeS of Myrtle Beach and the Poconos get as lucky

Even though I usually don't like "dodged a bullet" posts, this is one I can agree with(so far). I like you grew up/lived in Florida for 17 o my first 20 years and have lived within 60 miles of the Gulf Coast since I was 3yo. Your observations match with what I've seen as Isaias has happened. Told the wife the same thing earlier today. I HOPE IT STAYS THAT WAY because I always say NEVER SAY NEVER when you are dealing with a TC.

[ozonepete]

Looks like it's maybe about to close a circulation based on MW imagery.

You can see it on radar as well.

[NDG]

Looks like the LLC moved NNE towards the MLC.

[ncbird]

Looks like it's time for me to check in and take over the late night watches from my friends down in the sunshine state. No chance I'm gonna dodge her, so it's just a wait and see if she is gonna make hurricane strength again.

[Ken711]

Looks like it's time for me to check in and take over the late night watches from my friends down in the sunshine state. No chance I'm gonna dodge her, so it's just a wait and see if she is gonna make hurricane strength again.

Even if it doesn't reach cat 1 status, it's still going to be a strong tropical storm with some damaging winds. Hope everyone in its path stays safe.

[aspen]

Both recent recon passes have found the CoC slightly more under convection. FL winds are consistently 60-70 kt, but SFMR estimates don’t seem enough to warrant an upgrade back to a Cat 1.