ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ava_ati]

Looks like it's maybe about to close a circulation based on MW imagery.

You can see it on radar as well.

Goodness that happened fast

[gfsperpendicular]

On the bright side regarding complacency, E Florida has dodged Cat-5 Dorian and Cat-3 Matthew, so Isaias should be nothing compared to those two.

Also, I am once again reminded of how glad I am to not live in a hurricane-prone area.

[birddogsc]

Looks like the LLC moved NNE towards the MLC.

Radar seems to show that.

[ozonepete]

Looks like the LLC moved NNE towards the MLC.

Yeah. Look at this radar image from Melbourne. Center closing off.

[Craters]

https://i.gyazo.com/6a6d58e7cd1a43ea2cded9c86d7f6bf1.png

Starting to get that look on MW, again.

Yep -- the "Preening Eagle" look...

[NDG]

Looks like the LLC moved NNE towards the MLC.

Yeah. Look at this radar image from Melbourne. Center closing off.

https://i.imgur.com/40Gh6GB.gif

Recon also found lower pressure there after dropping the dropsonde further west.

[BensonTCwatcher]

If the shear is really letting up “early” and it closes off the MLC and gets stacked up overnight. This could be more of an issue than many in the Carolinas are thinking right now. Even at a low Cat 1 or so approaching the coast, a strengthening system is always trouble no matter the category. Charley Michael and others are strong reminders of that. I’ll take a weakening Cat 2 50 miles from lands fall over a borderline Cat 1 quickly organizing.

[hurricaneCW]

If the storm could hold up this well in such an unfavorable environment then it should have a good day tomorrow under a better atmosphere and jet streak dynamics

A 90+ mph storm into the Carolinas wouldn't surprise me.

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks like it’s trying on radar but still pretty grungy. Guessing the llc and mlc still aren’t well stacked but it does seem to be slowly getting there.

[NDG]

The HWRF is making me look bad after calling it right biased, which is was yesterday while it tracked over the NW Bahamas.
I guess it has its purposes of when Isaias would find a break in the shear it would take more a northerly heading vs NNW towards Cape Canaveral.

[Jr0d]

The east coast of Florida dodged yet another storm, only tonhave the Carolina's and North brace for impact from what appears to be a strengthening (almost) hurricane.

This track should be a warning to Florida for the rest of the season. Fortunately there is nothing else that is a thread for now and nothing showing up on the long ranger, but that will likely change by mid August.

[emeraldislenc]

It is looking better. Getting a little more concerned here on the NC coast. It could become a hurricane again!

[rigbyrigz]

NHC 11PM discussion up. They aren't real impressed yet with this strengthening attempt.

[invest man]

Ok so been watching from Eastern NC. It was suppose to go west of 80 west but never made it to 80 west. If it is turning more n now what would be the track down stream? Would it be closer to the coast perhaps as far north as Surf City? Would the possibility of perhaps 80+ mph at landfall cause it to perhaps ride up the HWY 17 corridor? Thoughts?

[FLpanhandle91]

I gotta say, this is the best it's looked since it was north of Haiti.

[NDG]

NHC 11PM discussion up. They aren't real impressed yet with this strengthening attempt.

Is just the usual from Pasch, it takes a lot to impress him

[aspen]

I’m under a Tropical Storm Watch for the first time since...honestly, I forget. Hermine, maybe? No watches or warnings were put this far inland for Fay.

[Hurricane Mike]

Looking more impressive maintaining the bursting pattern compared to last night.

[ColdMiser123]

Some of the strongest SFMR readings we've seen that have been coupled with hurricane force FL wind. 62 KT SFMR, 65 KT FL wind in the NE quadrant on this pass so far.

[Vdogg]

NHC 11PM discussion up. They aren't real impressed yet with this strengthening attempt.

Is just the usual from Pasch, it takes a lot to impress him

I was about to say, I was not expecting that discussion to be so bearish on the chance for strengthening. I had to check the title again to make sure we were looking at the same storm.