ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

I’m thinking 105mph landfall between Cape Hatteras and Surf City and not much time over land making another landfall on Eastern Long Island to Warwick,RI as a 80mph hurricane if the trend East continues

[emeraldislenc]

I agree the advisory was kinda bearish.

[emeraldislenc]

What are you basing your 105 on?

[StormSkeptic]

Agreed that the discussion was bearish on strengthening. Of concern is that the core seems to be heating up. After being in the 5-7 Degree C range it was up to a 10 degrees difference n the last VDM. That's got to lead to the pressure lowering I'd think?

[Hurricaneman]

What are you basing your 105 on?

Current organization and favorable conditions ahead

[ScottNAtlanta]

Agreed that the discussion was bearish on strengthening. Of concern is that the core seems to be heating up. After being in the 5-7 Degree C range it was up to a 10 degrees difference n the last VDM. That's got to lead to the pressure lowering I'd think?

Depends on if the dew point keeps coming up. It's better than earlier today but still rather dry. You need the dew point to get closer to the actual temp in the eye. The temp has been running around 79 all day. Today is the first day I have noticed a bigger spread though

[Homie J]

New microwave imagery

[Ken711]

I’m thinking 105mph landfall between Cape Hatteras and Surf City and not much time over land making another landfall on Eastern Long Island to Warwick,RI as a 80mph hurricane if the trend East continues

NHC still predicting a potential landfall north of Myrtle Beach as a strong TS or Cat 1. 105 seems a bit high from the 11:00 PM advisory but who knows.

[Ken711]

I’m thinking 105mph landfall between Cape Hatteras and Surf City and not much time over land making another landfall on Eastern Long Island to Warwick,RI as a 80mph hurricane if the trend East continues

NHC predicting a potential landfall near Wilmington, NC as a strong TS or Cat 1. 105 seems a bit high from the 11:00 PM advisory but who knows.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is looking a lot rounder on sat. Dont see it getting smushed (technical term) on the west side.
Pressure has not gone down this latest pass

[Hurricane Mike]

Video update on Isaias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXBfFC17jjg

[ColdMiser123]

Recon is confirming that this is becoming a better coupled system. Center found near 28.7 N/79.7 W, which is well within the area of developing convection now.

[aspen]

Seems like the pressure has risen to 997 mbar, but the center is now within the CDO, and Isaias seems set to regain hurricane status. That pressure should start lowering in a few hours.

[StormSkeptic]

Agreed that the discussion was bearish on strengthening. Of concern is that the core seems to be heating up. After being in the 5-7 Degree C range it was up to a 10 degrees difference n the last VDM. That's got to lead to the pressure lowering I'd think?

Depends on if the dew point keeps coming up. It's better than earlier today but still rather dry. You need the dew point to get closer to the actual temp in the eye. The temp has been running around 79 all day. Today is the first day I have noticed a bigger spread though

Interesting. How does that affect the pressure falls? I thought in the eye (at height) the dewpoint depression can be quite large?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Agreed that the discussion was bearish on strengthening. Of concern is that the core seems to be heating up. After being in the 5-7 Degree C range it was up to a 10 degrees difference n the last VDM. That's got to lead to the pressure lowering I'd think?

Depends on if the dew point keeps coming up. It's better than earlier today but still rather dry. You need the dew point to get closer to the actual temp in the eye. The temp has been running around 79 all day. Today is the first day I have noticed a bigger spread though

Interesting. How does that affect the pressure falls? I thought in the eye (at height) the dewpoint depression can be quite large?

Humidity is the fuel. If the air in the column is dry, it is going to evaporate. That takes energy from the storm...think of evaporative cooling...that takes heat out of the air by evaporating water. Hurricanes are big heat engines. They need the heat given off when water vapor forms clouds...and give up their heat.
Btw...learned this more from winter. In Atlanta, when it gets close to cold enough to snow...you are constantly looking at the "wet bulb" temp. If the air is really dry when the precip starts it can cool the air by a couple of degrees that can be the difference between Snow, Freezing rain, and rain...and we get just as excited about snow as hurricanes

[ColdMiser123]

Seeing some pretty impressive radial velocities showing up on radar at around 4500 feet in the NW eyewall, which has about a 0.8-0.85 equivalent surface wind factor. That would translate to roughly 68-72 KT at the surface, but it remains to be seen how transient these velocities will be.

[southportwxfan]

wow- got kind of quiet in here after the major threat to Florida has dissipated. Us poor North Carolinians are left to fend for ourselves-lol. Let's hope this system does not get its act together and strengthen anymore before plowing into our state. After the last few years we really don't need another hurricane!

[CrazyC83]

There is definitely a Florida and Gulf Coast bias on these boards. Same happened in Irene and Sandy...it slowed after passing Florida's latitude.

[Jr0d]

The wind is due north at 20 mile buoy off Cape Caneveral...that tells me the center is due east of there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

Still ESE at the 120 mile buoy, but it is a little further North of the Cape and the 20 mile buoy. Winds are now sustained over 40 kts there.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

[craptacular]

For what it's worth, I noticed recon jumped up from the 850mb flight level (~5000 feet) to 700mb (~10K ft) in a hurry as they were approaching the center on this last pass.