Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[al78]

TSR July forecast now published.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ly2020.pdf

The same as the pre-season forecast, about 30% above-norm.

[ouragans]

TSR July forecast now published.

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ly2020.pdf

The same as the pre-season forecast, about 30% above-norm.

They went 1 TS and 1 IH up

[Shell Mound]

Who’s willing to bet that, regardless of overall numbers, we’ll match or exceed the record seasonal ACE value of 259 set back in 1933? Two or three Irma-type systems may well be sufficient. Long-tracking CV majors quickly add up to a lot of storm-generated ACE over time, especially if the cyclone(s) maintains and/or attains MH status on several days. You don’t need 2005-type numbers in terms of overall NS to achieve record-breaking ACE. You just need a high proportion of long-tracking major hurricanes to do the trick, so to speak.

How much are you willing to go on it? I'll probably take the bet as a site donation or something. 259 ain't likely.

My “bet” was not literal. I shouldn’t even have used the term “bet.” Personally, I wouldn’t necessarily go by seasonal analogs or forecasted ranges. ACE of 259 may be climatologically unlikely, but such records are made to be met or exceeded. One doesn’t need 2005-type total NS to match or exceed 1933’s ACE. One merely needs a smattering of Irma- or Isabel-type systems during an above-average year. Everything suggests that we are likely to see two or more such systems during ASO. As I have said all along, this season will either bust on the low fringe or exceed the most bullish forecasts. Given current trends, I’m siding with the latter prospect, at least in terms of hurricanes/majors and ACE. (I think we’ll near 2005’s total NS but not exceed it.)

[CyclonicFury]

Who’s willing to bet that, regardless of overall numbers, we’ll match or exceed the record seasonal ACE value of 259 set back in 1933? Two or three Irma-type systems may well be sufficient. Long-tracking CV majors quickly add up to a lot of storm-generated ACE over time, especially if the cyclone(s) maintains and/or attains MH status on several days. You don’t need 2005-type numbers in terms of overall NS to achieve record-breaking ACE. You just need a high proportion of long-tracking major hurricanes to do the trick, so to speak.

How much are you willing to go on it? I'll probably take the bet as a site donation or something. 259 ain't likely.

My “bet” was not literal. I shouldn’t even have used the term “bet.” Personally, I wouldn’t necessarily go by seasonal analogs or forecasted ranges. ACE of 259 may be climatologically unlikely, but such records are made to be met or exceeded. One doesn’t need 2005-type total NS to match or exceed 1933’s ACE. One merely needs a smattering of Irma- or Isabel-type systems during an above-average year. Everything suggests that we are likely to see two or more such systems during ASO. As I have said all along, this season will either bust on the low fringe or exceed the most bullish forecasts. Given current trends, I’m siding with the latter prospect, at least in terms of hurricanes/majors and ACE. (I think we’ll near 2005’s total NS but not exceed it.)

It's not as simple of underperforming or overperforming forecasts. We could easily have a season very similar to the expert forecasts.

[Shell Mound]

How much are you willing to go on it? I'll probably take the bet as a site donation or something. 259 ain't likely.

My “bet” was not literal. I shouldn’t even have used the term “bet.” Personally, I wouldn’t necessarily go by seasonal analogs or forecasted ranges. ACE of 259 may be climatologically unlikely, but such records are made to be met or exceeded. One doesn’t need 2005-type total NS to match or exceed 1933’s ACE. One merely needs a smattering of Irma- or Isabel-type systems during an above-average year. Everything suggests that we are likely to see two or more such systems during ASO. As I have said all along, this season will either bust on the low fringe or exceed the most bullish forecasts. Given current trends, I’m siding with the latter prospect, at least in terms of hurricanes/majors and ACE. (I think we’ll near 2005’s total NS but not exceed it.)

It's not as simple of underperforming or overperforming forecasts. We could easily have a season very similar to the expert forecasts.

What limiting factors do you see, besides climatology, that may limit the production of ACE in 2020 and preclude a 1933-type result in this regard?

[Beef Stew]

The final update from CSU is coming on August 5th, at 11am EDT.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1287802453526630401

[AnnularCane]

With 9 storms before August (and mayyyybe 10?), I can't even begin to imagine what the prediction will be for the August update.

[CyclonicFury]

I don't really consider AccuWeather an expert forecast, but they raised their numbers even further. 20-24 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... oms/785249

[CrazyC83]

With 9 storms before August (and mayyyybe 10?), I can't even begin to imagine what the prediction will be for the August update.

If I were to guess: 19 to 24 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, 4 to 6 major hurricanes.

[Beef Stew]

NOAA will release their August update on August 6th, at 11 a.m. ET.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-issue-updated-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1288893902460727296

[SFLcane]

NOAA will release their August update on August 6th, at 11 a.m. ET.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-issue-updated-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1288893902460727296?s=20

I expect NOAA’s numbers to go even higher on Thursday.

[St0rmTh0r]

NOAA will release their August update on August 6th, at 11 a.m. ET.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-issue-updated-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1288893902460727296?s=20

At the current pace we would see over 30 named storms before October

[SFLcane]

With 9 storms before August (and mayyyybe 10?), I can't even begin to imagine what the prediction will be for the August update.

If I were to guess: 19 to 24 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, 4 to 6 major hurricanes.

My current thinking also.

[chaser1]

NOAA will release their August update on August 6th, at 11 a.m. ET.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-issue-updated-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1288893902460727296?s=20

At the current pace we would see over 30 named storms before October

A few years back I was lucky enough to take an early Spring trip to Iceland. From a weather & geological perspective it was just "insanely cool"! Among the many fun facts that I learned during the trip was that the Icelandic alphabet consists of 32 characters. So, there ya go?! Perhaps a short term solution to our needing more letters for each hurricane season. Sure, some of the names may be rather unfamiliar but look how well we did with Isaias

[toad strangler]

Anyone know what time CSU update comes out today?

[shiny-pebble]

Anyone know what time CSU update comes out today?

11 AM EDT

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[mcheer23]

Updated forecast from Colorado State University for the rest of the 2020 Hurricane Season now calls for a total of 24 storms, 12 hurricanes, & 5 major hurricanes. Double the amount of a normal year & may rival 2005 (28).

[SFLcane]

Updated forecast from Colorado State University for the rest of the 2020 Hurricane Season now calls for a total of 24 storms, 12 hurricanes, & 5 major hurricanes. Double the amount of a normal year & may rival 2005 (28).

Just wow!

[cycloneye]

Details shortly on the first page CSU list.

[cycloneye]