What will the experts do in the next forecasts?

[cycloneye]

This week three of the well known experts, goverment and private entities will release their August forecasts. No poll with this question to allow the members to make comments about this. IMO,all go up by 2.

CSU=August 5
TSR=August 5
NOAA=August 6

[aspen]

All will have their named storm totals around 20-22; NOAA might go with a maximum number of 24 named storms. Somewhere around 10 hurricanes for each forecast seems plausible too.

[Beef Stew]

Here's a look at how the three most recent hyperactive seasons (2017, 2010, and 2005) were forecasted by CSU, TSR and NOAA. These are the August forecasts compared to the preceding forecasts. Given the indications that point to the possibility of the 2020 season being hyperactive, I thought this would be applicable to look at.


2005 August Forecasts:
CSU: 20/10/6 (previous forecast: 15/8/4)
TSR: 22/11/8 (prev: 15/9/4)
NOAA: 18-21/9-11/5-7 (prev: 12-15/7-9/3-5)
At time of Aug release: 8/2*/2 (not including Cindy)
Actual Season: 28/15/7

2010 August:
CSU: 18/10/5 (prev: 18/10/5)
TSR: 18/10/5 (prev: 19/10/5)
NOAA: 14-20/8-12/4-6 (prev: 14-23/8-14/3-7)
At time of Aug release: 3/1/0
Actual Season: 19/12/5

2017 August:
CSU: 16/8/3 (prev: 15/8/3)
TSR: 17/7/3 (prev: 17/7/3)
NOAA: 14-19/5-9/2-5 (prev: 11-17/5-9/2-4)
At time of Aug release: 5/0/0
Actual Season: 17/10/6

2020:
CSU: ??? (prev: 20/9/4)
TSR: ??? (prev: 18/8/4)
NOAA: ??? (prev: 13-19/6-10/3-6)
At time: 9/2/0
Actual: ???


Looking at these and other forecasts from the past, I would expect something along the lines of this come Wednesday/Thursday:

CSU: 22/10/5
TSR: 20/9/4
NOAA: 18-24/8-12/3-6

Regardless, I think we'll see forecasts that put us well within reach of the greeks, which certainly isn't something you get to say every year.