2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/cIf7F7P.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uEzUBek.gif

That system forms in about a week on that run, so the wave should be emerging off of Africa in a few days. Gotta keep a really close eye on it now and see if any other models jump on board.

[cainjamin]

https://i.imgur.com/cIf7F7P.gif

https://i.imgur.com/uEzUBek.gif

If this storm actually forms, it will really be the first Caribbean cruiser we've seen since Dean and Felix 13 years ago. We've seen a few strong hurricane in the Caribbean since then (namely Sandy and Matthew) but really nothing strong that's tracked from the MDR to Central America. Obviously we'll have to watch for consistency and for other models to jump onboard, but in a sense we are kind of "due" for a storm like that.

[gatorcane]

GFS with possibly another system behind this one, looks to recurve it in the wake of Isiais with a displaced to the east Bermuda High due to a strong CONUS trough. Plenty of time to watch though.

[aspen]

GFS with possibly another system behind this one, looks to recurve it in the wake of Isiais with a displaced to the east Bermuda High due to a strong CONUS trough. Plenty of time to watch though.

https://i.postimg.cc/zvHykhFC/gfs-z850-vort-watl-17.png

I believe it’s also shown up in the latest ECMWF and ICON runs, albeit very weak and almost nonexistent.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS dropped the Caribbean cruiser

[MetroMike]

12Z CMC is sniffing out a low developing the the MDR starting around Thursday and traversing the west north westerly
to North of Puerto Rico Tuesday the 11th.
Will see if this is a one run and done or not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=12

[St0rmTh0r]

12Z CMC is sniffing out a low developing the the MDR starting around Thursday and traversing the west north westerly
to North of Puerto Rico Tuesday the 11th.
Will see if this is a one run and done or not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=12

Ridging looks to be building back as its looks headed to Bahamas again

[aspen]

12Z CMC is sniffing out a low developing the the MDR starting around Thursday and traversing the west north westerly
to North of Puerto Rico Tuesday the 11th.
Will see if this is a one run and done or not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=12

I think that’s the low-rider the GFS showed on one run a few days ago but quickly dropped afterwards. We’ll see by mid-week if the CMC can sniff out MDR development a second time like it did with Gonzalo.

[cycloneye]

12Z CMC is sniffing out a low developing the the MDR starting around Thursday and traversing the west north westerly
to North of Puerto Rico Tuesday the 11th.
Will see if this is a one run and done or not.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=12

I think that’s the low-rider the GFS showed on one run a few days ago but quickly dropped afterwards. We’ll see by mid-week if the CMC can sniff out MDR development a second time like it did with Gonzalo.

12z ECMWF is also sniffing.

[HurricaneEric]

Euro and CMC seem to be forecasting a favorable environment for a wave (as depicted in the 12z Euro) coming off Africa in about 6-7 days.

This is how the 12z Euro ends at day 10 with slow development (potential threat to the LAs?):

And the 12z CMC at day 10 (faster, more developed, and further north than the Euro):


Nada on GFS so far.


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[Jr0d]

Euro and CMC seem to be forecasting a favorable environment for a wave (as depicted in the 12z Euro) coming off Africa in about 6-7 days.

This is how the 12z Euro ends at day 10 with slow development (potential threat to the LAs?):https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200803/d5d96a7d961e8fb0856f21e8c4c21b82.jpg

And the 12z CMC at day 10 (faster, more developed, and further north than the Euro):
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200803/fb84722b859e1b2db5a750996a02d33b.jpg

Nada on GFS so far.


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Definately something to watch. The GFS has not done well sniffing out future development this year.

[Kingarabian]

Very long range 18z GFS coming in with some WCaribb development.

[Cpv17]

Very long range 18z GFS coming in with some WCaribb development.

The 12z Para has it also. Looks like a CAG feature.

[cheezyWXguy]

Very long range 18z GFS coming in with some WCaribb development.

The 12z Para has it also. Looks like a CAG feature.

Looks like an interaction between the cag feature and a tropical wave. The initial vorticity can be traced back to something that it initializes about a third of the way between Africa and the islands at hour 0.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has it again. So some sort of signal exists.

[Fancy1001]

00z GFS has it again. So some sort of signal exists.

It kinda of looks like two distinct cores fighting for control over the system. Josephine develops into a decent hurricane. Then a developing Kyle enters its proximity as Josephine weakens due to land interaction and eventually absorbs Josephines remains as he (Kyle) enters into the gulf.

[CyclonicFury]

The signal is likely related to a strong CCKW expected to pass through the Atlantic around the third week of August. This CCKW signal is showing up on the GFS, CFS and EPS. This CCKW may jumpstart the true Atlantic peak period, after a potential lull for the next 1-2 weeks.

[Fancy1001]

00z GFS has it again. So some sort of signal exists.

It kinda of looks like two distinct cores fighting for control over the system. Josephine develops into a decent hurricane. Then a developing Kyle enters its proximity, heading northwest towards the gulf as Josephine weakens due to land interaction, and eventually absorbs Josephine's remains as he (Kyle) enters into the gulf.

[Fancy1001]

00z GFS has it again. So some sort of signal exists.

It kinda of looks like two distinct cores fighting for control over the system. Josephine develops into a decent hurricane. Then a developing Kyle enters its proximity, heading northwest towards the gulf as Josephine weakens due to land interaction, and eventually absorbs Josephine's remains as he (Kyle) enters into the gulf.

There's even a little fujiwhara effect.

Would that system become kyle, or would it still be considered Josephine?

[GCANE]

CMC keeps biting.
Genesis in 48 hrs