2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[AnnularCane]

I posted this list last year, and I think it's time to do so again because the cycle has started again.

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

I re-posted this timeline back in June. Look where we are now--between August 1st and the 15th. So far, we've definitely had the weak TCs and the complainers/doubters following behind. We've also had the SAL and dry air. Isn't S2K great? Let's see if this year continues to follow along with the timeline.

Thanks, I wanted to ask for this timeline to be posted again during that brief period when people were cancelling the season but I didn't know how to describe it well enough that you'd know what I was talking about. Also I couldn't remember who posted it.

[BYG Jacob]

It was like Groundhog Day in here. At first it was SST ANOMOLIES (LOL), then it was bUT AlL THe StoRMs wERe WEaK, then it was SAL, and then it was the models are showing a negative factor (OH NOES, THE EURO IS SHOWING A DRY MDR AND THE CFS HAS A TUTT OVER THE ATLANTIC!!!!!). Finally, we're starting to ramp up into peak season and get even stronger storms. Meanwhile, every single invest or vort is not just spinning, but trying to develop, we've gone +AMO, we have a strengthening NINA, we have the rising branch over Africa, and we even have far less shear in the Caribbean this year so it won't be a graveyard this season (Get your cruise tickets now gang). Also, nearly every single storm delayed development until the western portion of the basin, and we've already had 5 storms landfall somewhere.

[cycloneye]

A small break of at least 10 days.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1290670773087109121

[Emmett_Brown]

I would welcome a quiet week before we ramp up. There is a distinctly different feel between the early season and peak season, which in my mind starts on Aug 15th. Early season storms, while potentially strong, always have a bit of a cap governing them; keeping them in check. After Aug 15th, things get real. Regardless of how busy a season ends up being, there are always a few monsters in the Atlantic, and these happen late Aug - October. During less active years of the 80's, I remember my paper tracking chart pinned to my bedroom wall, and my NOAA weather radio sitting on my desk. I also kept a spare tracking chart clipped from a Publix paper grocery bag. Those were good times.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1290670773087109121

Wait, I thought the Kelvin wave passed already when Gonzalo formed? Is this another one?

[Steve]

I would welcome a quiet week before we ramp up. There is a distinctly different feel between the early season and peak season, which in my mind starts on Aug 15th. Early season storms, while potentially strong, always have a bit of a cap governing them; keeping them in check. After Aug 15th, things get real. Regardless of how busy a season ends up being, there are always a few monsters in the Atlantic, and these happen late Aug - October. During less active years of the 80's, I remember my paper tracking chart pinned to my bedroom wall, and my NOAA weather radio sitting on my desk. I also kept a spare tracking chart clipped from a Publix paper grocery bag. Those were good times.

For sure. Who didn't have a tracking chart and some thumbtacks hanging around. Then came programs like Storm.exe and other executable ones you could load onto your computer. I won a copy of storm off Hurricane City and still have it installed on an old PC somewhere. Then came the ability to find FTP or whatever they called it sites where you could go onto NOAA's site and get satellites before they appeared on the news. LOL. Good times, but old times for sure. Most of us tracking on the internet since our 20's and 30's (back in the 1990's) are old now.

To BYG Jacob's point, the western bias has been worrying for me. In (apparently) less active years where we maybe get 8-12 named storms, you might have an early spinup in the Western Atlantic or Gulf; then some recurves and maybe a hit or two along the way. And then we'd end with maybe a late hybrid spinup in the Gulf or a more serious storm in the Caribbean. This year is roach-stomping the idea. The western basin has been the hotspot the entire season so far. Bastardi's landfall & 50% ACE areas are coming true even though many of us said or thought "come on man, that's almost the entire US Coastline" when we saw his forecast and outline for the season. But that's the way things are going. We had one storm form in the far Atlantic (deep tropics) that died off. Everything else either hit the USA or formed near and moved out into the Atlantic. If we can't break the steering pattern aiming most everything W or WNW, I could see us getting hit by 3 or 4 more hurricanes before the season is over. That could mean 5 or 6 (or more) and put is in or close to record territory. I'm not -removed- this at all. I just feel like the cards are laid out and just waiting to be played. I'm not bringing up majors in this post.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1290670773087109121

Wait, I thought the Kelvin wave passed already when Gonzalo formed? Is this another one?

Yes this is a different one.

[Nuno]

Definitely glad that SE Florida dodged yet another bullet with Isaias but I’m concerned that folks down here in metropolitan SE Florida are going to get real complacent especially if something more serious and threatening approaches and directly hits.

People are complacent in SE FL in two ways

1) "Oh, its not a 4/5 like Andrew, so its nothing"

2) "Oh, they always turn away and hit the Carolinas"

The mixture of these two is quite common. My accordians have finally been installed so I feel somewhat safer.

[toad strangler]

Definitely glad that SE Florida dodged yet another bullet with Isaias but I’m concerned that folks down here in metropolitan SE Florida are going to get real complacent especially if something more serious and threatening approaches and directly hits.

People are complacent in SE FL in two ways

1) "Oh, its not a 4/5 like Andrew, so its nothing"

2) "Oh, they always turn away and hit the Carolinas"

The mixture of these two is quite common. My accordians have finally been installed so I feel somewhat safer.

Nah, I don't buy that people are complacent. Sure some will always be but the level of prep made for Matthew, Irma, and Dorian told me differently. People know we got lucky and people also know the clock is ticking because history says so.

Anyway, back to Indicators hopefully

[SFLcane]

Definitely glad that SE Florida dodged yet another bullet with Isaias but I’m concerned that folks down here in metropolitan SE Florida are going to get real complacent especially if something more serious and threatening approaches and directly hits.

People are complacent in SE FL in two ways

1) "Oh, its not a 4/5 like Andrew, so its nothing"

2) "Oh, they always turn away and hit the Carolinas"

The mixture of these two is quite common. My accordians have finally been installed so I feel somewhat safer.

Nah, I don't buy that people are complacent. Sure some will always be but the level of prep made for Matthew, Irma, and Dorian told me differently. People know we got lucky and people also know the clock is ticking because history says so.

Anyway, back to Indicators hopefully

Oh that clock is ticking alright and with such a busy season still to come one can only hope our luck continues. We have only scratched the surface with this season

[ScottNAtlanta]

Most of the MJO forecasts, after a brief vacation in phase 4 want to make a beeline back to phase 8/1 and back to phase 2 . That would indicate a brief pause then back to an active MJO state.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[captainbarbossa19]

I posted this list last year, and I think it's time to do so again because the cycle has started again.

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

I re-posted this timeline back in June. Look where we are now--between August 1st and the 15th. So far, we've definitely had the weak TCs and the complainers/doubters following behind. We've also had the SAL and dry air. Isn't S2K great? Let's see if this year continues to follow along with the timeline.

Thanks, I wanted to ask for this timeline to be posted again during that brief period when people were cancelling the season but I didn't know how to describe it well enough that you'd know what I was talking about. Also I couldn't remember who posted it.

No problem. I will probably re-post this again sometime in September to see if it's still generally true. Let's call it "Barbossa's timeline."

[AnnularCane]

I would welcome a quiet week before we ramp up. There is a distinctly different feel between the early season and peak season, which in my mind starts on Aug 15th. Early season storms, while potentially strong, always have a bit of a cap governing them; keeping them in check. After Aug 15th, things get real. Regardless of how busy a season ends up being, there are always a few monsters in the Atlantic, and these happen late Aug - October. During less active years of the 80's, I remember my paper tracking chart pinned to my bedroom wall, and my NOAA weather radio sitting on my desk. I also kept a spare tracking chart clipped from a Publix paper grocery bag. Those were good times.

For sure. Who didn't have a tracking chart and some thumbtacks hanging around. Then came programs like Storm.exe and other executable ones you could load onto your computer. I won a copy of storm off Hurricane City and still have it installed on an old PC somewhere. Then came the ability to find FTP or whatever they called it sites where you could go onto NOAA's site and get satellites before they appeared on the news. LOL. Good times, but old times for sure. Most of us tracking on the internet since our 20's and 30's (back in the 1990's) are old now.

When I was growing up in NOLA, we used to get tracking charts from Burger King (I think). They always had them free at the beginning of the season. For a few years in the 1990s I'd get them from Rite Aid, and eventually from the NHC website. Along with colored pencils. My grandmother had a magnetic one on her wall.

Oh, and I also had a laminated one on my bedroom wall. I had inadvertently used a permanent marker (I think a Sharpie?) to track Andrew on that one, so his track remained on the map permanently.

[SconnieCane]

A small break of at least 10 days.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1290670773087109121

Time to let the percolator heat up...

[captainbarbossa19]

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

Kind of funny the exact opposite is happening this year--record number of storms, two hurricane landfalls from AEWs, yet models have shown and continue to show nothing all the while

Well, 2020 has been one so far to step outside of the box (including Barbossa's timeline). For example, surface pressure in the Atlantic was very low in July compared to the average. It's also been 10 years since January. I can expect more unexpected things to come this year.

[captainbarbossa19]

I would welcome a quiet week before we ramp up. There is a distinctly different feel between the early season and peak season, which in my mind starts on Aug 15th. Early season storms, while potentially strong, always have a bit of a cap governing them; keeping them in check. After Aug 15th, things get real. Regardless of how busy a season ends up being, there are always a few monsters in the Atlantic, and these happen late Aug - October. During less active years of the 80's, I remember my paper tracking chart pinned to my bedroom wall, and my NOAA weather radio sitting on my desk. I also kept a spare tracking chart clipped from a Publix paper grocery bag. Those were good times.

For sure. Who didn't have a tracking chart and some thumbtacks hanging around. Then came programs like Storm.exe and other executable ones you could load onto your computer. I won a copy of storm off Hurricane City and still have it installed on an old PC somewhere. Then came the ability to find FTP or whatever they called it sites where you could go onto NOAA's site and get satellites before they appeared on the news. LOL. Good times, but old times for sure. Most of us tracking on the internet since our 20's and 30's (back in the 1990's) are old now.

To BYG Jacob's point, the western bias has been worrying for me. In (apparently) less active years where we maybe get 8-12 named storms, you might have an early spinup in the Western Atlantic or Gulf; then some recurves and maybe a hit or two along the way. And then we'd end with maybe a late hybrid spinup in the Gulf or a more serious storm in the Caribbean. This year is roach-stomping the idea. The western basin has been the hotspot the entire season so far. Bastardi's landfall & 50% ACE areas are coming true even though many of us said or thought "come on man, that's almost the entire US Coastline" when we saw his forecast and outline for the season. But that's the way things are going. We had one storm form in the far Atlantic (deep tropics) that died off. Everything else either hit the USA or formed near and moved out into the Atlantic. If we can't break the steering pattern aiming most everything W or WNW, I could see us getting hit by 3 or 4 more hurricanes before the season is over. That could mean 5 or 6 (or more) and put is in or close to record territory. I'm not -removed- this at all. I just feel like the cards are laid out and just waiting to be played. I'm not bringing up majors in this post.

One area that has not been touched yet by any storms is the Western Caribbean. If a storm enters the Caribbean with favorable conditions, there could be a very strong hurricane.

Look at the difference in the Caribbean from about a year ago:



Here is the Caribbean today:



Also, notice how warm the Gulf is currently. Even the region where Hurricane Hanna passed through is already recovering.

[Steve]

I would welcome a quiet week before we ramp up. There is a distinctly different feel between the early season and peak season, which in my mind starts on Aug 15th. Early season storms, while potentially strong, always have a bit of a cap governing them; keeping them in check. After Aug 15th, things get real. Regardless of how busy a season ends up being, there are always a few monsters in the Atlantic, and these happen late Aug - October. During less active years of the 80's, I remember my paper tracking chart pinned to my bedroom wall, and my NOAA weather radio sitting on my desk. I also kept a spare tracking chart clipped from a Publix paper grocery bag. Those were good times.

For sure. Who didn't have a tracking chart and some thumbtacks hanging around. Then came programs like Storm.exe and other executable ones you could load onto your computer. I won a copy of storm off Hurricane City and still have it installed on an old PC somewhere. Then came the ability to find FTP or whatever they called it sites where you could go onto NOAA's site and get satellites before they appeared on the news. LOL. Good times, but old times for sure. Most of us tracking on the internet since our 20's and 30's (back in the 1990's) are old now.

When I was growing up in NOLA, we used to get tracking charts from Burger King (I think). They always had them free at the beginning of the season. For a few years in the 1990s I'd get them from Rite Aid, and eventually from the NHC website. Along with colored pencils. My grandmother had a magnetic one on her wall.

Oh, and I also had a laminated one on my bedroom wall. I had inadvertently used a permanent marker to track Andrew on that one, so his track remained on the map permanently.

Haha. I remember calling Burger King on Morrison Road (I grew up in the East) a couple of times to find out if they had them in yet. I think they worked with Bob Breck and WVUE ABC 8 (which is Fox 8 now) or possibly Nash and Channel 4.

Damn I'm realizing how old I actually am. I remember the laminated ones. They still had one at our office a few years ago.

[Steve]

Yeah cap'n. The heat is down there. Even when a storm comes through and leaves a shadow of cooling or whatever, usually within a few weeks it's replaced until you get later in the season and the available heat content becomes less as storms take it out of the water. For now though, all it takes is a week or two - especially as hot as it's been - for the sunshine to bake on the Gulf and Caribbean. Excessive rainfall can cut it back as well as tropical systems. But it's only early August. We've got 7-8 weeks easily of mostly hot sunny days ahead.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290709016956477441




Near-record warm MDR SSTs, very low shear across the deep tropical Atlantic in the MDR and Caribbean, the lowest SLP on record in the Atlantic this July, four July TCs from AEWs including two in the MDR and two hurricanes...the red flags are definitely there...

[cycloneye]

:double:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290709016956477441

Near-record warm MDR SSTs, very low shear across the deep tropical Atlantic in the MDR and Caribbean, the lowest SLP on record in the Atlantic this July, four July TCs from AEWs including two in the MDR and two hurricanes...the red flags are definitely there...

Again with the eyes.