2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[MarioProtVI]

:double:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290709016956477441

Near-record warm MDR SSTs, very low shear across the deep tropical Atlantic in the MDR and Caribbean, the lowest SLP on record in the Atlantic this July, four July TCs from AEWs including two in the MDR and two hurricanes...the red flags are definitely there...

If this doesn’t scream the increasingly likelihood of a hyperactive season I don’t know what does.

[StruThiO]

:double:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290709016956477441

Near-record warm MDR SSTs, very low shear across the deep tropical Atlantic in the MDR and Caribbean, the lowest SLP on record in the Atlantic this July, four July TCs from AEWs including two in the MDR and two hurricanes...the red flags are definitely there...

[SFLcane]

:double:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290709016956477441

Near-record warm MDR SSTs, very low shear across the deep tropical Atlantic in the MDR and Caribbean, the lowest SLP on record in the Atlantic this July, four July TCs from AEWs including two in the MDR and two hurricanes...the red flags are definitely there...

Is there still time to hide?

[gatorcane]

Looks like there is a lot of dry air in the global model fields going out at least 10+ days albeit dry air is typical still even the first couple of weeks of August. We know dry mid-level air was clearly an issue with Isaias on its approach to Florida. Also we saw a record-breaking SAL surge several weeks back. Anybody have any data to compare the extent of the dry air this year in the MDR so far compared to previous active years like 2005, 2010, and 2017? Is it normal, above normal, or below? Any comparisons to not so active years like 2013?

[AutoPenalti]

Dry air still a FAT issue right now. Once we get through mid-August, yikes.

[Hammy]

Looks like there is a lot of dry air in the global model fields going out at least 10+ days albeit dry air is typical still even the first couple of weeks of August. We know dry mid-level air was clearly an issue with Isaias on its approach to Florida. Also we saw a record-breaking SAL surge several weeks back. Anybody have any data to compare the extent of the dry air this year in the MDR so far compared to previous active years like 2005, 2010, and 2017? Is it normal, above normal, or below? Any comparisons to not so active years like 2013?

Dry air is likely to stick around for awhile, at least in the MDR. Even the most active CFS runs don't really show the deep tropics taking off until late August--most of the activity will be elsewhere before that.

[toad strangler]

Looks like there is a lot of dry air in the global model fields going out at least 10+ days albeit dry air is typical still even the first couple of weeks of August. We know dry mid-level air was clearly an issue with Isaias on its approach to Florida. Also we saw a record-breaking SAL surge several weeks back. Anybody have any data to compare the extent of the dry air this year in the MDR so far compared to previous active years like 2005, 2010, and 2017? Is it normal, above normal, or below? Any comparisons to not so active years like 2013?

This is true gator but more than dry air the persistent heavy mid level shear forcing said dry air into the Isaias's kitchen was the main culprit. We'll see. Updated seasonal forecasts start rolling in from the big boys starting tomorrow.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like there is a lot of dry air in the global model fields going out at least 10+ days albeit dry air is typical still even the first couple of weeks of August. We know dry mid-level air was clearly an issue with Isaias on its approach to Florida. Also we saw a record-breaking SAL surge several weeks back. Anybody have any data to compare the extent of the dry air this year in the MDR so far compared to previous active years like 2005, 2010, and 2017? Is it normal, above normal, or below? Any comparisons to not so active years like 2013?

Dry air is likely to stick around for awhile, at least in the MDR. Even the most active CFS runs don't really show the deep tropics taking off until late August--most of the activity will be elsewhere before that.

We also know that in years past, the models have struggled to accurately project when the season will become active. It seems like once you reach August 15th, conditions tend to change rapidly across the basin. I think it is quite possible that we may have rather short notice from models that the season is rapidly becoming active. 2017 was definitely one of those years with the formation of Harvey followed by Irma.

[EquusStorm]

There was a pretty significant SAL surge leaving the African coast as late as August 19 in 2017, but I'm not sure how far into the basin it got. Really only a problem when it piles up in the central part of the basin, which we've seen earlier. There are years with major exceptions but in a lot of recent seasons it has really felt like the first half of August has been a dead zone, except for Franklin and Gert in 2017. And neither of those were even MDR storms, waiting until the western half of the basin to organize. Even 2005 struggled massively in mid-August, with only Irene, which struggled immensely in unfavorable conditions and fluctuated between a barely closed depression and a weak tropical storm til it got to higher latitudes.

[CyclonicFury]

EPS showing the strong CCKW entering the Atlantic around August 15-20.
 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1290737790012002309

[BYG Jacob]

:double:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290709016956477441

Near-record warm MDR SSTs, very low shear across the deep tropical Atlantic in the MDR and Caribbean, the lowest SLP on record in the Atlantic this July, four July TCs from AEWs including two in the MDR and two hurricanes...the red flags are definitely there...

One area that has not been touched yet by any storms is the Western Caribbean. If a storm enters the Caribbean with favorable conditions, there could be a very strong hurricane.

Look at the difference in the Caribbean from about a year ago:

snip

Here is the Caribbean today:

snip

Also, notice how warm the Gulf is currently. Even the region where Hurricane Hanna passed through is already recovering.

Like I said in my post, we're gonna be on a cruise at some point this season.

[psyclone]

we stand a good chance of squeezing in a couple weeks of tranquility before climo likely overwhelms us late month. The infamous "bell ring" date of 8-20 is fast approaching. If things are quiet at that point (when climo says otherwise) the downcaster crowd will be free to lodge complaints. otherwise, peak season is likely to toggle between bursts of quiet and intense activity. should that transpire...we are likely to run out of names..

[EquusStorm]

We're already on a record four year streak of category five hurricane occurrences, and remarkably also a record streak of three straight years with category five landfalls; if any season has the potential to continue at least one of those dubious streaks, this one has the looks of it

[psyclone]

We're already on a record four year streak of category five hurricane occurrences, and remarkably also a record streak of three straight years with category five landfalls; if any season has the potential to continue at least one of those dubious streaks, this one has the looks of it

I think you're correct. Who will be this year's Dominica, Marsh Harbor or Mexico beach? The wheel of misfortune is in motion. Let's hope for a break but don't bank on it. The signals are just overwhelming

[EquusStorm]

If a cat 5 has to come ashore this year let's hope it's over uninhabited marshland somewhere, but that hasn't seemed to be the case lately with the high profile targets... maybe that'll change heh

[Nuno]

I would welcome a quiet week before we ramp up. There is a distinctly different feel between the early season and peak season, which in my mind starts on Aug 15th. Early season storms, while potentially strong, always have a bit of a cap governing them; keeping them in check. After Aug 15th, things get real. Regardless of how busy a season ends up being, there are always a few monsters in the Atlantic, and these happen late Aug - October. During less active years of the 80's, I remember my paper tracking chart pinned to my bedroom wall, and my NOAA weather radio sitting on my desk. I also kept a spare tracking chart clipped from a Publix paper grocery bag. Those were good times.

For sure. Who didn't have a tracking chart and some thumbtacks hanging around. Then came programs like Storm.exe and other executable ones you could load onto your computer. I won a copy of storm off Hurricane City and still have it installed on an old PC somewhere. Then came the ability to find FTP or whatever they called it sites where you could go onto NOAA's site and get satellites before they appeared on the news. LOL. Good times, but old times for sure. Most of us tracking on the internet since our 20's and 30's (back in the 1990's) are old now.

When I was growing up in NOLA, we used to get tracking charts from Burger King (I think). They always had them free at the beginning of the season. For a few years in the 1990s I'd get them from Rite Aid, and eventually from the NHC website. Along with colored pencils. My grandmother had a magnetic one on her wall.

Oh, and I also had a laminated one on my bedroom wall. I had inadvertently used a permanent marker (I think a Sharpie?) to track Andrew on that one, so his track remained on the map permanently.

I would use maps from Publix in the 90s. I have a corkboard map of the ATL basin that I got in time for the 2017 season and still have Irma, Maria and Michael pinned out.

[SconnieCane]

We're already on a record four year streak of category five hurricane occurrences, and remarkably also a record streak of three straight years with category five landfalls; if any season has the potential to continue at least one of those dubious streaks, this one has the looks of it

I think you're correct. Who will be this year's Dominica, Marsh Harbor or Mexico beach? The wheel of misfortune is in motion. Let's hope for a break but don't bank on it. The signals are just overwhelming

Don't forget Barbuda, St. Martin and I believe several other islands Irma hit at peak intensity (also hit Cuba as a Cat. 5 but in a sparsely populated area if I'm not mistaken).

[Chris90]

Honestly, I’ll be shocked if we don’t get at least 1 Cat 5 this year.

I think in regards to the MJO and Kelvin Waves, it’s important to keep in mind the way the basins have been behaving and how favorable their base states seem to be. Right now the ATL seems to be like a bonfire that is constantly burning, and CCKWs just act as a hit of gasoline to fan the flames even higher for a little while. The fire is strong though and suppressive Kelvin Waves need to be decently strong to temporarily douse the fire. I do think this suppressive wave moving in will be enough to act as a sedative for the ATL for a few days, but I think the next favorable wave after that will give us our first major in the ATL between Aug 17-24th, in the Caribbean, just a guess.

You can see the difference with the Pacific though. The entire Pacific needs a CCKW to trigger development, it hasn’t managed without it. The Atlantic pushed out Gonzalo during a suppressive phase.

[St0rmTh0r]

We're already on a record four year streak of category five hurricane occurrences, and remarkably also a record streak of three straight years with category five landfalls; if any season has the potential to continue at least one of those dubious streaks, this one has the looks of it

This year feels like a culmination of a very active phase
that started in 2016. Which is why all signs point to hyperactivity.

[EquusStorm]

This year feels like a culmination of a very active phase
that started in 2016. Which is why all signs point to hyperactivity.

Yeah honestly feels a lot like like the 2003-2004-2005 streak did at the moment. Seems like we have some clustered big seasons now and then