Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

That’s an incredible 200 ACE just wow I have never seen CSU forecast this.

[Steve]

Updated forecast from Colorado State University for the rest of the 2020 Hurricane Season now calls for a total of 24 storms, 12 hurricanes, & 5 major hurricanes. Double the amount of a normal year & may rival 2005 (28).

Damn. That's freaking insane. Seemed like that kind of thing was once in every 70 years at best. If they are right, stay tuned for

Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicki
Wilfred
Alpha
Beta
Gamma

K-L-M-N-O-P-R are likely the scariest ones and the next 7 we will see (if 94L becomes Josephine). That should take us pretty deep into September you'd think.

[aspen]

Updated forecast from Colorado State University for the rest of the 2020 Hurricane Season now calls for a total of 24 storms, 12 hurricanes, & 5 major hurricanes. Double the amount of a normal year & may rival 2005 (28).

Wow, that’s the most aggressive expert forecast I’ve ever seen! I’m still shocked that such an active season is on the table.

[EquusStorm]

Absolutely insane for an official seasonal forecast, wow. Not entirely unexpected but still, jaw dropping to actually see

[SFLcane]

1966, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2017 analogs...

Mic drop!

[toad strangler]

Updated forecast from Colorado State University for the rest of the 2020 Hurricane Season now calls for a total of 24 storms, 12 hurricanes, & 5 major hurricanes. Double the amount of a normal year & may rival 2005 (28).

[MarioProtVI]

Updated forecast from Colorado State University for the rest of the 2020 Hurricane Season now calls for a total of 24 storms, 12 hurricanes, & 5 major hurricanes. Double the amount of a normal year & may rival 2005 (28).

That is insane...

[TheHurricaneGod]

2020 being 2020 yet again. Who else had reaching the Greek alphabet on their apocalypse bingo?

[cycloneye]

Details shortly on the first page CSU list.

The whole forecast in details of 31 pages is now on the first page.

[SFLcane]

I can only imagine NOAA tomorrow lol.

[cycloneye]

Analog years include 1995, 2005 and 2017

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1291030450388049922

[AutoPenalti]

I can only imagine NOAA tomorrow lol.

NOAA will probably go a little less aggressive with their outlook, probably 26/10/4 with 190 ACE

[SFLcane]

Analog years include 2005 and 2017

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1291030450388049922

Just the fact he is using 2005 and even 2017 is crazy but for me forecasting 24 named storms this early is really a cause for real concern. Get your sleep now folks!

[toad strangler]

Analog years include 2005 and 2017

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1291030450388049922

Just the fact he is using 2005 and even 2017 is crazy but for me forecasting 24 named storms this early is really a cause for real concern. Get your sleep now folks!

That 24 includes the 9 we already have had so its 15 more forecasted. That is IMPRESSIVE as that's 5 per month INCLUDING August if you discount November.

[sma10]

Analog years include 2005 and 2017

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1291030450388049922

Just the fact he is using 2005 and even 2017 is crazy but for me forecasting 24 named storms this early is really a cause for real concern. Get your sleep now folks!

Bear in mind we are currently well ahead of 2005 pace. Jose and Katrina formed on Aug 22 and Aug 24 - so let's see if pace stays ahead over next two-three weeks

[ouragans]

Do you guys know what time TSR forecast will be available?

[cycloneye]

Do you guys know what time TSR forecast will be available?

Anytime today they will release their forecast.

[Steve]

1966, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2017 analogs...

Mic drop!

Bring back 2013!!! Or 1907 or 1914.

[USTropics]

Using CSU's analogs (1966, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2017), this is the average from today's date - remainder of season for those years:

Named storms - 84 total, 14 average
Hurricanes - 50 total, 8.3 average
Major Hurricanes - 26 total, 4.3 average

If you use the analogs for the current climatological period (past 30 years - removing 1966):

Named storms - 77 total, 15.4 average
Hurricanes - 46 total, 9.4 average
Major Hurricanes - 24 total, 4.8 average

[Beef Stew]

What a forecast from CSU. The analog years say enough as is.


Were it to verify, 2020 would be:

-Second in total storms with 24 [behind 2005 (28)]
-Tied for second in total hurricanes with 12 [behind 2005 (15); tied with 1969 and 2010]
-Tied for third in terms of total major hurricanes with 5 [behind 2005 (7) and 1926, 1933, 1950, 1996, 2004, and 2017 (6); tied with 1893, 1916, 1961, 1964, 1969, 1995, 1999, 2008, and 2010]
-The 9th most active season in terms of ACE with 200 [behind 1933 (259), 2005 (250), 1893 (231), 1926 (230), 1995 (228), 2004 (227), 2017 (225), and 1950 (211)]

The fact that the team at CSU forecasted such high numbers- knowing well where it would place the 2020 season in terms of company- speaks volumes.