2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[St0rmTh0r]

The 00z Euro will be important to see if the time frame gets closer or not and to increase the odds of this NOT being a ghost system.
18z GFS:
Hour 276:
https://i.imgur.com/Cahtp8m.png

Ends like this:
https://i.imgur.com/IajTKYC.png

Given the state of this season this looks legit. Its August and the activity is ramping up even further

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1290781255659708416

[JPmia]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1290781255659708416

Oh that’s really not good. I recall that being a main driver of development in 2005 for the Caribbean and Gulf.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS takes a Caribbean cane and pays a visit to NOLA.


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[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has a well defined vort moving into the central Caribbean by the ends of its run.

[SFLcane]

00z EPS on the rise...

[AutoPenalti]

Is this EPS with the Giant Envelope over Africa thread?

[Stangfriik]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1290781255659708416

Wow I haven't seen his name in years. Was it here or maybe even the old TWC message board.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290983661341413377

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

https://iili.io/d06IoP.gif

Looks like there's another wave following behind it. Although this may have the same issue Isaias had with it's larger envelope.

[TheStormExpert]

https://iili.io/d06IoP.gif

Looks like there's another wave following behind it. Although this may have the same issue Isaias had with it's larger envelope.

Not again! I’ll take another Gonzalo over Isaias any day.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1291009363436544001

[cycloneye]

12z GFS=EPAC.

[toad strangler]

yep 12z GFS dropped the SW Caribbean development. No surprise being 10 plus days out.

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS genesis looked spurious to begin with. GFS has a bias with concentrating upward motion over Central America when CCKWs or MJO pulses propagate eastward, leading to spurious CAG-like features on the model and thus ghost storms in both the NW Caribbean and EPAC. This happens a lot in the early and late season as well. I just can't take a GFS NW Caribbean long range storm seriously when it's an outlier.

This time of year, genesis from AEWs is more likely. The EPS is starting to pick up on a potential development signal over the western MDR in 8-10 days, which seems far more likely for this time of year. We could see genesis in the NW Caribbean, but likely not the CAG-like genesis the GFS has been insistent on.

[Fancy1001]

yep 12z GFS dropped the SW Caribbean development. No surprise being 10 plus days out.

What are you talking about, it's still there.

[toad strangler]

yep 12z GFS dropped the SW Caribbean development. No surprise being 10 plus days out.

What are you talking about, it's still there.

Not at the 240 hourISH mark it had moved to in previous runs. LOL at what happens post 300 hours

[toad strangler]

12Z EURO with AEW splashdown @72hrs and marches it all the way to 55 or so W @168 hrs.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro pretty much is about to slam our vort into SA at 240hrs. Back to the drawing board.