2020 EPAC Season

[Extratropical94]

No change in percentages so far.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
southern coast of Mexico and portions of Central America later this
week. Gradual development of this system will be possible over the
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

[Extratropical94]

Down to 0/20.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico and portions of Central America by this weekend.
Some development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Pure EPAC 2020 season.

[Extratropical94]

Possible -> expected to be slow to occur

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico over the weekend. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur through early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Douglas could approach Hawaii next week

As if there weren’t enough going on in the Atlantic alone, newly upgraded Hurricane Douglas in the Eastern Pacific will be heading in the direction of the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days. Douglas vaulted to hurricane status early Wednesday, and it is predicted to reach at least Category 2 strength over the next couple of days as it travels over warm SSTs of around 28°C (82°F).

Douglas will eventually reach cooler waters late this week. Wind shear is expected to remain light (below 10 knots), which may allow any weakening to be gradual. Models suggest that Douglas could affect Hawaii around July 27 while still a tropical storm, albeit a weakening one, and this was reflected in the official NHC forecast on Wednesday.

It was once a rare event for a tropical cyclone to reach the Hawaiian Islands, but in recent years that rule of thumb has been overturned. Tropical storm landfalls in Hawaii over the past decade include Iselle (2014), Darby (2016), and Olivia (2018). Hurricane Lane, which peaked at Category 5 strength just before passing south and west of the Big Island in 2018, dumped the heaviest rains (58″) ever recorded from a tropical cyclone in Hawaii.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/ ... d-islands/

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1285573380880687105

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/ZKgQerw.png

Hurricane Douglas could approach Hawaii next week

As if there weren’t enough going on in the Atlantic alone, newly upgraded Hurricane Douglas in the Eastern Pacific will be heading in the direction of the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days. Douglas vaulted to hurricane status early Wednesday, and it is predicted to reach at least Category 2 strength over the next couple of days as it travels over warm SSTs of around 28°C (82°F).

Douglas will eventually reach cooler waters late this week. Wind shear is expected to remain light (below 10 knots), which may allow any weakening to be gradual. Models suggest that Douglas could affect Hawaii around July 27 while still a tropical storm, albeit a weakening one, and this was reflected in the official NHC forecast on Wednesday.

It was once a rare event for a tropical cyclone to reach the Hawaiian Islands, but in recent years that rule of thumb has been overturned. Tropical storm landfalls in Hawaii over the past decade include Iselle (2014), Darby (2016), and Olivia (2018). Hurricane Lane, which peaked at Category 5 strength just before passing south and west of the Big Island in 2018, dumped the heaviest rains (58″) ever recorded from a tropical cyclone in Hawaii.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/ ... d-islands/

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1285573380880687105

And I just literally said a month or so ago that you probably wouldn’t have anything to worry about in Hawaii Kingarabian due to cooler than average SST’s just east of Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

Douglas has saved the EPAC from a epic fail in terms of ACE.It got 20.6 units lifting the basin to 26.9 units.

[Extratropical94]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about a thousand miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula have become a little better
organized overnight. Some slight additional development is
possible as it drifts northwestward during the next day or so.
By Saturday, significant development is not likely while the
system moves over cooler waters and into less favorable
environmental conditions.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and Euro are hinting at maybe 1 or 2 large systems attempting to form in the EPAC within 10 days. They do have them forming a bit closer to Mexico but struggling a bit. That could mean delayed development until 120W. Now through late September is where we see long trackers (if conditions are favorable).

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and Euro are hinting at maybe 1 or 2 large systems attempting to form in the EPAC within 10 days. They do have them forming a bit closer to Mexico but struggling a bit. That could mean delayed development until 120W. Now through late September is where we see long trackers (if conditions are favorable).

Let me say I have my doubts at least for now.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS, Euro, CMC becoming bullish now. All have a CPAC system as well as a hurricane in the EPAC moving west. Time frame is coming in with development for both systems beginning about hour 168.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 5 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is somewhat likely to form early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

The models are lightning up the EPAC for sure. More quantity than quality on some of the runs.

12z Euro:


12z Euro continues with another possible CPAC crossover (it's the only model to show this however the 12z EPS has about 30 members showing development):


12z GFS makes the 0/60 system a major hurricane:


Also stronger with the other systems:

[AnnularCane]

I could swear I just looked out there maybe a day ago and there was nothing.

[gatorcane]

EPAC looks like it will be lighting up. Means the Atlantic may be slow the next 10 days or so.

[Kingarabian]

Take the model runs for the EPAC with a grain of salt lol. Out of all those possible solutions I'm betting on one and a half storms forming.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm kinda skeptical given the position of these hypothetical systems. Any shift in the 0/60's track north and it's going to have much less time than expected.

[StruThiO]

As optimistic as ever in here,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 5 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto