2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[galaxy401]

Feels nice to see a nearly empty map of the Atlantic on the NHC again. Enjoy this calm while it lasts because things might be completely different in three weeks time.

[St0rmTh0r]

Feels nice to see a nearly empty map of the Atlantic on the NHC again. Enjoy this calm while it lasts because things might be completely different in three weeks time.

I really don't think we are ready for what we are going to when the floodgates open

[DestinHurricane]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1291091021523300353

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1291091021523300353

Josh did kinda contradict himself there a wee bit. Josh is a chaser, not a forecaster. He'll be the first one to tell you that.

[DestinHurricane]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1291091021523300353

Josh did kinda contradict himself there a wee bit. Josh is a chaser, not a forecaster. He'll be the first one to tell you that.

Sure. But still 2005 already had Dennis, Emily and cat 1 Cindy at this date. We have had 1 real hurricane so far plus Isiaias which was hardly a hurricane.

I'm not at all doubting we will see several majors. I just think that the 2005 comparisons are uncalled for.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1291091021523300353

Josh did kinda contradict himself there a wee bit. Josh is a chaser, not a forecaster. He'll be the first one to tell you that.

Sure. But still 2005 already had Dennis, Emily and cat 1 Cindy at this date. We have had 1 real hurricane so far plus Isiaias which was never really a hurricane.

I'm not at all doubting we will see several majors. I just think that the 2005 comparisons are uncalled for.

Except Colorado State University just used it as an analog. You citing 2005 individual storms to date vs 2020 is meaningless right now. Also, Isaias was a hurricane. I'm not so sure you belong here in this thread but God Bless America!

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1291091021523300353

Josh did kinda contradict himself there a wee bit. Josh is a chaser, not a forecaster. He'll be the first one to tell you that.

Sure. But still 2005 already had Dennis, Emily and cat 1 Cindy at this date. We have had 1 real hurricane so far plus Isiaias which was never really a hurricane.

I'm not at all doubting we will see several majors. I just think that the 2005 comparisons are uncalled for.

There was a confirmed report of hurricane-force winds on Oak Island, NC. A tropical cyclone does not need to have a well-defined eye to be a hurricane, if it meets tropical cyclone criteria with hurricane-force winds, it's a hurricane by definition (see Barry last year). Isaias absolutely was a hurricane, and surface observations and reconnaissance aircraft data confirmed so.

[galaxy401]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1291091021523300353

Josh did kinda contradict himself there a wee bit. Josh is a chaser, not a forecaster. He'll be the first one to tell you that.

We have had 1 real hurricane so far plus Isiaias which was never really a hurricane.

What are you talking about? Define "never really a hurricane". There were hurricane force winds found by recon and surface obs.

[DestinHurricane]

Josh did kinda contradict himself there a wee bit. Josh is a chaser, not a forecaster. He'll be the first one to tell you that.

Sure. But still 2005 already had Dennis, Emily and cat 1 Cindy at this date. We have had 1 real hurricane so far plus Isiaias which was never really a hurricane.

I'm not at all doubting we will see several majors. I just think that the 2005 comparisons are uncalled for.

There was a confirmed report of hurricane-force winds on Oak Island, NC. A tropical cyclone does not need to have a well-defined eye to be a hurricane, if it meets tropical cyclone criteria with hurricane-force winds, it's a hurricane by definition (see Barry last year). Isaias absolutely was a hurricane, and surface observations and reconnaissance aircraft data confirmed so.

Should've worded differently. It wasn't a hurricane for a sustained period of time and could never really get its act together. That's what I meant.

[EquusStorm]

I REALLY wish people would stop using Dennis and Emily to compare July totals; if we judge every year by the most ridiculous and anomalous July in the satellite era then every season is going to look quiet. July 2005 was jaw-dropping and not normal and it would be pretty hard to ever beat it. It's like comparing playground fights to WW2. (also reminder Cindy was not a hurricane operationally and only bumped to a marginal hurricane in post analysis, Isaias and Hanna both have a much stronger case imo; Cindy was a ragged mess with just basically street flooding and tornadoes iirc) 2005 will probably be the king of July for as long as I live but I'mma not tempt it lol

We're still very much lagging behind 2005 in tropical wave-spawned storms (I think every storm into September that year was which is incredible) but it's hard to not draw comparisons when basin conditions are almost the same, named storm count is outpacing it, and the official forecast puts us in the Greeks again. I think we'll have more activity in September than 2005 but it'll be hard to beat October, which was also pretty nuts. I'll be shocked if we surpass it in named storm, hurricane, or major totals.

[tolakram]

This thread is for the discussion of indicators. If one has some indicators to discuss please do. Tweets from hurricane chasers, no matter how awesome they are, are not indicators.

[CrazyC83]

I REALLY wish people would stop using Dennis and Emily to compare July totals; if we judge every year by the most ridiculous and anomalous July in the satellite era then every season is going to look quiet. July 2005 was jaw-dropping and not normal and it would be pretty hard to ever beat it. It's like comparing playground fights to WW2. (also reminder Cindy was not a hurricane operationally and only bumped to a marginal hurricane in post analysis, Isaias and Hanna both have a much stronger case imo; Cindy was a ragged mess with just basically street flooding and tornadoes iirc) 2005 will probably be the king of July for as long as I live but I'mma not tempt it lol

We're still very much lagging behind 2005 in tropical wave-spawned storms (I think every storm into September that year was which is incredible) but it's hard to not draw comparisons when basin conditions are almost the same, named storm count is outpacing it, and the official forecast puts us in the Greeks again. I think we'll have more activity in September than 2005 but it'll be hard to beat October, which was also pretty nuts. I'll be shocked if we surpass it in named storm, hurricane, or major totals.

That's probably the most amazing stat of 2005: how everything came from waves (in fact, the same wave that spawned Katrina also spawned Jose). Storms that year of non-tropical origin were Ophelia (stalled front), the unnamed storm (upper level low), Vince (previously extratropical), Delta (previously extratropical), Epsilon (upper level low) and Zeta (cutoff low).

[Hurricane Mike]

Regarding 2005, I do see parallels but of course no two seasons are the same. I think something like two 150 mph+ hurricanes in early/mid July would be a once in a century type of event. I think you have to go back to the 19th century to get something like what we saw with Dennis and Emily.

I often consider 2004 and 2017 very similar. They were different in certain ways (2004 was an Moduki El Nino) but there was a six week period of four "big" hurricanes. Charley-Frances-Ivan-Jeanne in 2004, and then Harvey-Irma-Maria-Nate in 2017.

I saw parallels in the storms as well.

Charley and Harvey were both quick-strengthening Cat 4 U.S. landfalls in the Gulf in August
Frances and Irma were both similar Cat 4/5 storms taking track west-northwest from Africa to Florida
Ivan and Maria were both devastating Cat 5 Caribbean monsters
Jeanne and Nate were both destructive and deadly storms retired but somewhat overshadowed

This year I definitely see that the amount of storms may surpass 21-24, which was evident once we reached the "I" storm before August. I also consider both Hurricane Hanna and Hurricane Isaias storms that packed a wallop for Category 1 systems. Nothing is going to be Dennis and Emily, but they sure were Hanna and Isaias.

[Nuno]

I think 2005 was such a traumatizing and powerful season for many that it almost becomes hard to contextualize. It's hard to believe it was fifteen years ago
In a way, it "spoiled" hurricane tracking for some people, who now unfairly compare every hurricane season, even subconsciously, to 2005. Because we don't have a category 5 in July every season, people start to doubt that any given season will be as impactful, no matter what predictions or indicators may point to.

[Hammy]

I REALLY wish people would stop using Dennis and Emily to compare July totals; if we judge every year by the most ridiculous and anomalous July in the satellite era then every season is going to look quiet. July 2005 was jaw-dropping and not normal and it would be pretty hard to ever beat it. It's like comparing playground fights to WW2. (also reminder Cindy was not a hurricane operationally and only bumped to a marginal hurricane in post analysis, Isaias and Hanna both have a much stronger case imo; Cindy was a ragged mess with just basically street flooding and tornadoes iirc) 2005 will probably be the king of July for as long as I live but I'mma not tempt it lol

We're still very much lagging behind 2005 in tropical wave-spawned storms (I think every storm into September that year was which is incredible) but it's hard to not draw comparisons when basin conditions are almost the same, named storm count is outpacing it, and the official forecast puts us in the Greeks again. I think we'll have more activity in September than 2005 but it'll be hard to beat October, which was also pretty nuts. I'll be shocked if we surpass it in named storm, hurricane, or major totals.

That's probably the most amazing stat of 2005: how everything came from waves (in fact, the same wave that spawned Katrina also spawned Jose). Storms that year of non-tropical origin were Ophelia (stalled front), the unnamed storm (upper level low), Vince (previously extratropical), Delta (previously extratropical), Epsilon (upper level low) and Zeta (cutoff low).

Nate as well, formed from the same trough as Ophelia.

[HurricaneEdouard]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1291091021523300353

Josh did kinda contradict himself there a wee bit. Josh is a chaser, not a forecaster. He'll be the first one to tell you that.

Sure. But still 2005 already had Dennis, Emily and cat 1 Cindy at this date. We have had 1 real hurricane so far plus Isiaias which was hardly a hurricane.

I'm not at all doubting we will see several majors. I just think that the 2005 comparisons are uncalled for.

2005 is being used as an analog year by CSU, and sea surface temperatures are comparable to 2005 and 2010, so the comparisons are fairly literally called for.

That said, I think it would be a mistake to judge the rest of the season by comparing intensity of July storms. 2005 had an exceptional July with Dennis and Emily, it is true, but August had only one major hurricane, September two, and October two. In comparison, 1933 had three major hurricanes that formed in August, two in September, and one in October; 1961, which had no storms in August at all, had four major hurricanes that formed in September, and one in October. Seasons with five or six major hurricanes massively vary in terms of when those hurricanes formed; a season lacking two major hurricanes in July isn't an indicator it won't be hyperactive. It is possible we will see proportionally more major hurricanes in ASO compared to 2005.

[TheStormExpert]

The only thing I am going to say is this video from Mark Sudduth is omminous.

https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack ... 7475455036

Very ominous indeed! Hopefully everyone’s been preparing for this season like no other, so far we’ve had five tropical cyclone hits on the U.S. including both hurricanes so far and most have been East Coast hits. 2020 is definitely living up to its name unfortunately.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1291349410509729792

[cycloneye]

The real lid will open soon.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1291365912117903366

[crownweather]

And my reply to Ben's tweet.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1291368151217774594