2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Shear will be extremely hostile next 2 weeks. Likely GFS bias

[Steve]

The thing about the GFS' scenario of a CAG-like setup is that historically, climatology does not support such an event. Central American Gyres are almost exclusively an early-season and late-season phenomenon. August is a month where any truly barotropic cyclogenesis originates from tropical waves. So I really do have my doubts about this - I'd chalk it up to the GFS' classic bias with overamplifying the MJO in phase 8/1 more than anything, outside of the fact that this is in the 300+ hour range and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt by default...-

I don't agree with anything 16 days out. But I'm sure we're headed back for 8. As Scott in Atlanta said the other day, EC takes the shortcut across the circle. GFS-based and other US and world models want to wrap it across through 5-6-7. But it's only days in the low teens. So barely two weeks or less til we are back there. Anything could happen to speed that up or slow it down. I haven't been watching Asian or Indian Ocean weather patterns that much, so I am not armed with the information I'd want to have to defend that. But still. We're headed back toward 8 soon enough. Hopefully we don't skip it completely and drop into Deep 2 or anything.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[Blown Away]

00z EURO starting to show a LLC in the strike position near NE Caribbean in 240 hours... Something to watch for in coming days...

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/KbCCkqx.gif
00z EURO starting to show a LLC in the strike position near NE Caribbean in 240 hours... Something to watch for in coming days...

If you look at the moisture it's surrounded by dry air. Nothing on the EPS. Probably end up like 94L

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/KbCCkqx.gif
00z EURO starting to show a LLC in the strike position near NE Caribbean in 240 hours... Something to watch for in coming days...

If you look at the moisture it's surrounded by dry air. Nothing on the EPS. Probably end up like 94L

True, the TW would likely continue WNW in the low level flow and this season so far seems to be home growns that develop quickly near the coast if they find a sweet spot...

[GCANE]

African Easterly Jet is forecast to dissipate in 78 hr.
The lid for the MDR / CV TCs will come off once SAL settles down a bit.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... a=glob_250

[GCANE]

African Easterly Jet is forecast to dissipate in 78 hr.
The lid for the MDR / CV TCs will come off once SAL settles down a bit.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... a=glob_250

Just noticed, Rossby waves in the Pacific taking a turn to the north.
Opens the door for the ConUS.

[Steve]

ICON valid for next Thursday at 7pm Central

[cycloneye]

12z GFS= Nothing in Western Caribbean. It was phanthom.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro starting to get into the MDR action as early as next Thursday

[SouthFLTropics]

Actually, after looking at the run some more, it starts spinning it up in the MDR by next Wednesday.

[Dean4Storms]

So far this season not so impressed, outside of Hanna ramping up at the last minute in the western Gulf the MDR has not been so friendly to TW's with SAL continuing to blanket much of the Tropical Atlantic. Isaias also struggled with shear and dry air and not until it reached the NE Carib. Sea did it get its act together and even that was sheared. I know we're now past the I named storm but most of that was short lived weak systems that 50 yrs ago never got named. I'm not seeing much in regards to favorable conditions yet and here we are approaching mid August in regards to the MDR. The Euro ENS are predicting rising heights over Eastern NA at 500mb down the road and usually with that and the MJO coming around to 8,1,2,3 you would think the Carib. Sea, Gulf or off the SE US Coast something would pop underneath.

Thats because we're now in the satellite era and with better tools can identify developing cyclones...

1000%. Ubontwo is dead on also. It's Bastardi-speak stuff. Idgaf what they did or didn't classify 50 years ago. That was 50 years ago. I'm not accusing Dean of being a parrot. It's just a statement like a lot of other stuff that gets repeated and creeps into people's ideas and beliefs. Sometimes those are right. Often they become so-called urban legends. It's 2020. Classify that which should be classified IMHO.

Well you're right I'm not a parrot of anyone else. I am in my latter 50's and have witnessed the change in some storms getting a name that didn't happen in the 60's and 70's and even into the 80's. I was born and grew up in Florida and have been into meteorology since elementary school following the tropics intently visiting the NWS office in Jax often and over at George Winterling's (Google Him) house discussing weather all the time and can say honestly that I myself witnessed some storms not get named back then that today I know get named. I have no reason or agenda to tell you a lie about it or fabricate it, they followed the science on confirming a circulation and it was hard to do back then before the technology of today.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: Actually, after looking at the run some more, it starts spinning it up in the MDR by next Wednesday.

Yeah but it falls apart the closer it gets to the Caribbean. Stronger than the last run though.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: Actually, after looking at the run some more, it starts spinning it up in the MDR by next Wednesday.

Yeah but it falls apart the closer it gets to the Caribbean. Stronger than the last run though.

Gotta watch it. Tis the season. AS always, wait for ensembles. It's not like the ghost the GFS was trying to spin up the last couple of days. This is a real traceable AEW, not some spurious voracity flowing off of Venezuela.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: Actually, after looking at the run some more, it starts spinning it up in the MDR by next Wednesday.

Yeah but it falls apart the closer it gets to the Caribbean. Stronger than the last run though.

Gotta watch it. Tis the season. AS always, wait for ensembles. It's not like the ghost the GFS was trying to spin up the last couple of days. This is a real traceable AEW, not some spurious voracity flowing off of Venezuela.

I feel like it’ll turn out more like what the ICON is showing.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... Consistently picking up a low pressure in the MDR next week and takes an Isaias type track over Puerto Rico (Luis Again)...

[Dean4Storms]

https://i.imgur.com/BvJcs21.gif
12z EURO... Consistently picking up a low pressure in the MDR next week and takes an Isaias type track over Puerto Rico (Luis Again)...

Note how fast it's moving, gonna have a hard time developing moving that fast.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/BvJcs21.gif
12z EURO... Consistently picking up a low pressure in the MDR next week and takes an Isaias type track over Puerto Rico (Luis Again)...

Note how fast it's moving, gonna have a hard time developing moving that fast.

Those are 24 hour intervals. I don't think it's overly fast.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/BvJcs21.gif
12z EURO... Consistently picking up a low pressure in the MDR next week and takes an Isaias type track over Puerto Rico (Luis Again)...

Note how fast it's moving, gonna have a hard time developing moving that fast.

Those are 24 hour intervals. I don't think it's overly fast.

In fact is more slower on this run.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Thats because we're now in the satellite era and with better tools can identify developing cyclones...

1000%. Ubontwo is dead on also. It's Bastardi-speak stuff. Idgaf what they did or didn't classify 50 years ago. That was 50 years ago. I'm not accusing Dean of being a parrot. It's just a statement like a lot of other stuff that gets repeated and creeps into people's ideas and beliefs. Sometimes those are right. Often they become so-called urban legends. It's 2020. Classify that which should be classified IMHO.

I think they call that improving your scientific knowledge and improved technology, and why that is a bad thing to some people is beyond my understanding