2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

And my reply to Ben's tweet.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1291368151217774594

Well those are z500 patterns.. But there doesn't appear to be a TC out there to take advantage. Favorable period isn’t till mid late aug.

[toad strangler]

And my reply to Ben's tweet.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1291368151217774594

Well those are z500 patterns.. But there doesn't appear to be a TC out there to take advantage. Favorable period isn’t till mid late aug.

Correct, IF you trust modeling genesis

[AutoPenalti]

And my reply to Ben's tweet.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1291368151217774594

Well those are z500 patterns.. But there doesn't appear to be a TC out there to take advantage. Favorable period isn’t till mid late aug.

Yes, which is why he mentioned the 8-14 day outlook.

[SFLcane]

And my reply to Ben's tweet.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1291368151217774594

Well those are z500 patterns.. But there doesn't appear to be a TC out there to take advantage. Favorable period isn’t till mid late aug.

Yes, which is why he the mentioned 8-14 day outlook.

It will not be favorable in 8-14 days more towards end of aug the way it looks.

[AutoPenalti]

Well those are z500 patterns.. But there doesn't appear to be a TC out there to take advantage. Favorable period isn’t till mid late aug.

Yes, which is why he the mentioned 8-14 day outlook.

It will not be favorable in 8-14 days more towards end of aug the way it looks.

8-14 would generally put us through "mid-to-late" Aug.

[StruThiO]

From NOAA's just-issued outlook located here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Reasons why the likelihood of an above-normal season has increased
The increased likelihood of an above-normal, and possibly extremely active, season reflects three main factors:

1. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) are even more conducive to hurricane formation than was predicted in May. The MDR spans the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996). These conditions include exceptionally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a stronger West African monsoon, weaker vertical wind shear, lower surface air pressure, weaker trade winds, and more conducive wind patterns coming off of Africa.

2. There is an increased likelihood of La Niña during August-October (50% or greater chance now compared to 40% chance in May), and some La Niña-like atmospheric conditions already appear to be in place. La Niña typically reduces the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, thus also favoring a more active hurricane season. There is virtually no chance that El Niño will develop and suppress the hurricane season.

3. Models now predict an even more active season than they did in May, along with a higher potential for an extremely active season.

[toad strangler]

This tidbit would have been great for ShellMound when he called certain areas safe multiple times

"NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline"

[crownweather]

Yes, which is why he the mentioned 8-14 day outlook.

It will not be favorable in 8-14 days more towards end of aug the way it looks.

8-14 would generally put us through "mid-to-late" Aug.

Yep and that's why I pointed this out. 10 days from now is August 16th and 14 days puts us at August 20th, right at the cusp of the end of the month.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1291405263031939074

[SFLcane]

As dangerous setup as it gets...

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291401776671989769

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1291405263031939074

[gatorcane]

Shear across the MDR particularly the Caribbean and SW Atlantic looks above average right now looking at the GFS bulk shear anomaly graphics and it only looks to worsen over the next 10+ days. I also noticed the long-range CFS has been underestimating the shear in these areas if you go back just a week ago to see what it predicted for now through mid August. Eventually climo will win out and we should see a ramp up by around Aug 20th but models are still not showing anything hyperactive in the long-range runs yet.

[SFLcane]

Who is ready to live 2004 again? With a record number of storms this is about as scary as it gets in particularly for the Florida peninsula. Be ready folks!

[toad strangler]

Who is ready to live 2004 again? With a record number of storms this is about as scary as it gets in particularly for the Florida peninsula. Be ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/cyyRYHw.png

Good Lord

[Nuno]

Its okay guys, the Florida repellant/shield will work because the trough always saves the day

[AutoPenalti]

Its okay guys, the Florida repellant/shield will work because the trough always saves the day

Yeah that trough was pretty unusual for late July.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1291412576056889349

[toad strangler]

:wink:

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1291412576056889349

Who is Adrian Linares?

[SFLcane]

:wink:

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1291412576056889349

Who is Adrian Linares?

I have no idea.

[AutoPenalti]

:wink:

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1291412576056889349

Who is Adrian Linares?

[*]The poster who you just quoted, lol.

I mean uh, idk but he seems pretty credible.