2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Evan_Wilson]

Who is ready to live 2004 again? With a record number of storms this is about as scary as it gets in particularly for the Florida peninsula. Be ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/cyyRYHw.png

Would other states such as GA,SC and NC see more landfalls with this pattern as well? I hope not!

[gatorcane]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

[WeatherEmperor]

:wink:

[url]https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/12914125760url]

Who is Adrian Linares?

Who is Adrian Linares? Well, that is none other than Storm2k's SFLcane


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[SFLcane]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

Certainly hope your right BUT it’s not looking promising.

[SFLcane]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

Yes it was models were quite persistent on a trough weakening the ridge from early hence the recurve near FL.

[CFLHurricane]

Who is ready to live 2004 again? With a record number of storms this is about as scary as it gets in particularly for the Florida peninsula. Be ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/cyyRYHw.png

Would other states such as GA,SC and NC see more landfalls with this pattern as well? I hope not!

The entire east coast is at a high risk of seeing a landfalling tropical cyclone, with NC holding the most risk do to its exposed geographical position.

[TheStormExpert]

Its okay guys, the Florida repellant/shield will work because the trough always saves the day

I can smell the complacency settling in!

[TheStormExpert]

Who is ready to live 2004 again? With a record number of storms this is about as scary as it gets in particularly for the Florida peninsula. Be ready folks!

https://i.imgur.com/cyyRYHw.png

I’m not and honestly hope this is wrong! But I’m preparing just in case.

[TheStormExpert]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

I know what you’re saying gatorcane, the 500mb steering pattern is very difficult to predict even just a week out. But indications are there that the U.S. will likely be under the gun multiple times throughout the next several months. As we already saw with Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna, and Isaias the stage is set for U.S. landfalls. I’m much rather be safe than sorry especially with the numbers being forecasted trying to rival 2005 in a way.

[TheStormExpert]

Just for some hopeful good luck!

[EquusStorm]

People suggestin' named storm count doesn't mean much because of sloppy midlatitude storms that supposedly wouldn't have been classified 40-50 years ago and thinking classifying those storms is somehow new

Here's some midlatitude storms that were classified in that 40-50 (or 52) year ago span in question

STS 1 1968
Eve 1969
Charlie 1972
Delta 1972
Alfa 1973
STS 2 1974
STS 1 1978

Among many others. Not to mention the late 60s and 70s are chock full of high latitude baroclinically initiated systems - including many hurricanes - that would have been missed without satellite or ship reports.

And even busy seasons can have some clunkers. Remember Lee and Philippe in 2005? Of course you don't, they struggled and died rapidly over the open Atlantic and were of no consequence. Perceptions of storms in a season can be skewed by activity level; if they occurred in a below average season I could see people using Bret, Cindy, Gert, Irene, Lee, Philippe, Tammy, Alpha or Gamma as an example of a weak, brief, messy, or struggling storm (etc) that proved the rest of the season would be weak.

Of course those were wave-spawned instead of high latitude systems, but we see those being classified since the advent of satellite... if it meets criterion, classify it. Holding back to conserve accurate comparisons to a woefully inadequate and inaccurate historical record with no satellites is absurd, though it's definitely easier to confirm open ocean storms now with high res satellite and scatterometer/phase diagrams. That's why I don't like comparing today's seasons to anything pre 1990s or so. There really isn't a way to make accurate comparisons since our tech is way better now to catch brief storms.

I do a lot of looking into tornado records as well; we detect A LOT more weak tornadoes now due to dual-pol technology rendering radar able to detect debris from even the most rural tornado that lofts debris. It would be equivalent to ignoring the occurrence any tornado that isn't directly observed by a human spotter (vast majority aren't) and discarding TDS confirmations entirely

[Emmett_Brown]

I am a bit nervous about a W coast of FL strike this year. The NW Caribbean has been pretty quiet for years now, and that has to end at some point. Troughs like the most recent one that brought Isaias up the coast could easily scoop up a storm from the NW Caribbean into the Eastern GOM. I don't think we will have to wait until October to see a storm down there, and Florida's unique geography makes it vulnerable from both sides. Charley in 2004 is an example. Hopefully Tampa's luck continues.

[toad strangler]

I am a bit nervous about a W coast of FL strike this year. The NW Caribbean has been pretty quiet for years now, and that has to end at some point. Troughs like the most recent one that brought Isaias up the coast could easily scoop up a storm from the NW Caribbean into the Eastern GOM. I don't think we will have to wait until October to see a storm down there, and Florida's unique geography makes it vulnerable from both sides. Charley in 2004 is an example. Hopefully Tampa's luck continues.

Just Tampa's?

[Ubuntwo]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

All has a flip side - by October, persistent troughing ends up pulling W Carib storms up through South Florida. These Wilma-esque tracks make up a sizeable chunk of FL landfalls. With how favorable that part of the basin has been, it's definitely another risk we have to watch out for.

[BYG Jacob]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

You say this like Michael didn't come screaming into the panhandle

[WeatherEmperor]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

You say this like Michael didn't come screaming into the panhandle

I have this weird feeling in my gut that somewhere in Florida is going to get hit by a big hurricane in October especially with the atmosphere slowly growing more La Nina'ish. The Caribbean looks way more favorable this year compared to years past to spawn a major storm that couls go to Florida


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[TheStormExpert]

Don’t buy into the GFS and it’s shear forecast as it continues to try and blow everything up in the East Pacific, and obviously that’s not happening. At this point they’re likely to have one of their slowest seasons in years!

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1291467771717591040




 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1291467972729606146

[gatorcane]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

All has a flip side - by October, persistent troughing ends up pulling W Carib storms up through South Florida. These Wilma-esque tracks make up a sizeable chunk of FL landfalls. With how favorable that part of the basin has been, it's definitely another risk we have to watch out for.

By 2005 meaning the number and quality of hurricanes especially starting so soon in July. The dreaded Florida hit from the Caribbean late season like Wilma is always on the table during La Ninas especially.

[DestinHurricane]

My honest opinion is that we won’t see another 2004 For Florida for a long time just like we won’t see another 2005 for a long time. Steering is difficult to predict as well. Come peak of the season we could easily see a -NAO and the semi-permanent trough sticking around. Shouldn’t be long now before we know. Just the fact that we saw the trough literally come out of nowhere to scoop up Isaias proves the point. That wasn’t in the cards a week before in the models.

All has a flip side - by October, persistent troughing ends up pulling W Carib storms up through South Florida. These Wilma-esque tracks make up a sizeable chunk of FL landfalls. With how favorable that part of the basin has been, it's definitely another risk we have to watch out for.

By 2005 meaning the number and quality of hurricanes especially starting so soon in July. The dreaded Florida hit from the Caribbean late season like Wilma is always on the table during La Ninas especially.

Is it correct that it is extremely unlikely for a hurricane to hit the E coast of FL in late October? I thought that the October threats out of the W Caribbean were only for Panhandle and west coast of Florida. Wilma, Michael, etc.

[toad strangler]

All has a flip side - by October, persistent troughing ends up pulling W Carib storms up through South Florida. These Wilma-esque tracks make up a sizeable chunk of FL landfalls. With how favorable that part of the basin has been, it's definitely another risk we have to watch out for.

By 2005 meaning the number and quality of hurricanes especially starting so soon in July. The dreaded Florida hit from the Caribbean late season like Wilma is always on the table during La Ninas especially.

Is it correct that it is extremely unlikely for a hurricane to hit the E coast of FL in late October? I thought that the October threats out of the W Caribbean were only for Panhandle and west coast of Florida. Wilma, Michael, etc.