2020 EPAC Season

[Astromanía]

Nice start

[Kingarabian]

UKMET is still not developing the 0/70.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific
centered a few hundred miles south of Guatemala are associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly a couple of hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

Well the GFS and Euro sure are lighting up the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico and Guatemala are associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[gatorcane]

Well the GFS and Euro sure are lighting up the EPAC.

Wow it is on fire in those models runs from today

18Z GFS with 4 named systems in the next two weeks, two of which looks to become powerful hurricanes.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1291525144779915269

[TheStormExpert]

Well the GFS and Euro sure are lighting up the EPAC.

Wow it is on fire in those models runs from today

18Z GFS with 4 named systems in the next two weeks, two of which looks to become powerful hurricanes.

This basin has yet to impress outside of Douglas. So I’m somewhat skeptical as to what the models show as we’ve seen this over and over the past few months.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET still shows nothing and it is in range.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward, offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1291718037452787713

[EquusStorm]

What's the record here for latest fifth named storm in the satellite era, sure seems unusually tardy this year

[Yellow Evan]

What's the record here for latest fifth named storm in the satellite era, sure seems unusually tardy this year

Elida from 1996 which formed around September 1 IIRC.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest GFS and ECMWF runs are more coherent showing 4 distinct systems. 91E, one near 135W, and two ones trailing 91E.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1291804642377072647




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1291808395939532801

[Kingarabian]

To see CPAC systems in model runs during a developing La Nina year is pretty weird.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

To see CPAC systems in model runs during a developing La Nina year is pretty weird.

Admittedly, we're still in cool-neutral (for now), but yeah, seeing all of these predicted storms in the near future is not exactly the most expected thing considering the conditions.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS is hinting at a system forming near 120W near 10-12N. This has been a sweet spot for development in the EPAC ever since 2014. Euro has been on it too.

[Yellow Evan]

Should start seeing action around day 5.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1292092058287644672