Florida Weather

[Patrick99]

Miami and the rest of the peninsula in the 5-day cone for a TS. That probably means it misses to the east or dissipates....you're usually pretty good if you're square in the middle of the 5-day At any rate, something to watch.

[HURRICANELONNY]

You got that right. Don't remember ever getting a shower from any system that put florida under the cone this far out. Without a point to run models. All cones are totally useless. If it doesn't dissipate. It could go anywhere from the gulf to new england.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1288230201604763648

[mlfreeman]

6.18 inches of rain here in Mandarin today in 2 hours. Mother Nature made up for all those showers pushed inland all at once.

[MetroMike]

At this point Central FL will NEED a tropical system to come through to give widespread rains to the area.
The pattern this summer is not dependable at all. Normally we get above average yearly totals thanks to the summer rainy season, which is not really happening. Last year the rainy season stopped the last part of August.
Do not need a repeat of that.

[psyclone]

Rainy season thus far has been a disappointment for the west coast. we have have not had much of an easterly flow to push convection to the coast and offshore into the gulf. many coastal areas are below normal for rainfall. but we can catch up very quickly. a tropical system would do it but it is not a requirement. what we need is a deep southeast flow to set up shop so we can make up ground. of course below normal rain=above normal temps and above normal sea temps. those warm waters carry the potential to feed very intense convection (tropical system or not) which is why we have plenty of time to close the gap.

[stpeteweathergal]

This afternoon's forecast discussion says that the easterly flow setup will return next week to help out us coastal residents.

Promises, promises.

[gatorcane]

This lack of deep easterly flow is precisely why I think Florida will not be hit from any significant tropical systems from the eas this year. The pattern is simply not like it was in 2017 or even 2016 which featured Irma and Matthew. We will have to closely watch late season particularly October for something coming from the south.

[toad strangler]

This lack of deep easterly flow is precisely why I think Florida will not be hit from any significant tropical systems from the east. The pattern is simply not like it was in 2017 or even 2016 which featured Irma and Matthew. We will have to closely watch late season particularly October for something coming from the south.

Well Isaias already proved this theory wrong my friend. That was a closer scrape than Matthew was and we should be thankful that westerly shear was screaming out of the west and effectively neutered the entire W side of the system.

[gatorcane]

This lack of deep easterly flow is precisely why I think Florida will not be hit from any significant tropical systems from the east. The pattern is simply not like it was in 2017 or even 2016 which featured Irma and Matthew. We will have to closely watch late season particularly October for something coming from the south.

Well Isaias already proved this theory wrong my friend. That was a closer scrape than Matthew was and we should be thankful that westerly shear was screaming out of the west and effectively neutered the entire W side of the system.

But it missed and it wasn’t significant.

[toad strangler]

This lack of deep easterly flow is precisely why I think Florida will not be hit from any significant tropical systems from the east. The pattern is simply not like it was in 2017 or even 2016 which featured Irma and Matthew. We will have to closely watch late season particularly October for something coming from the south.

Well Isaias already proved this theory wrong my friend. That was a closer scrape than Matthew was and we should be thankful that westerly shear was screaming out of the west and effectively neutered the entire W side of the system.

But it missed and it wasn’t significant.

Yep, but the track was there.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This lack of deep easterly flow is precisely why I think Florida will not be hit from any significant tropical systems from the eas this year. The pattern is simply not like it was in 2017 or even 2016 which featured Irma and Matthew. We will have to closely watch late season particularly October for something coming from the south.

this is a bold claim when we haven't even started the "real" season yet. i hope you are right, but we don't know yet.

[toad strangler]

You can easily make out the center of hallowed out Isaias as it straddles the FL coast. I was right next to it (white dot). THe track was there. Conditions weren't.

[MetroMike]

The local Tampa area TV Mets are remarking that this is typical "dog days" of summer.
I think it is anything but. No steering patterns for any precip. counties near the beaches getting hit or miss downpours
(mostly miss in my area) August should feature large scale heavy tropical downpours over widespread area of the CWA.
At least that is what I remember of past years in August.

[gatorcane]

You can easily make out the center of hallowed out Isaias as it straddles the FL coast. I was right next to it (white dot). THe track was there. Conditions weren't.

http://i.ibb.co/r67yXd1/Isaias.jpg

Indeed, but don’t forget it was quite weak (basically a naked swirl in the Bahamas) and it still didn’t make it. Had it been stronger wouldn’t have been as close to Florida and probably would have missed most if not all of the Bahamas to the east.

[Nuno]

Precipitation totals for much of SEFL lower than normal for this time of year post-Isaias. Afternoon storms have been absent from coast Dade at least in my area.

[toad strangler]

You can easily make out the center of hallowed out Isaias as it straddles the FL coast. I was right next to it (white dot). THe track was there. Conditions weren't.

http://i.ibb.co/r67yXd1/Isaias.jpg

Indeed, but don’t forget it was quite weak (basically a naked swirl in the Bahamas) and it still didn’t make it. Had it been stronger wouldn’t have been as close to Florida and probably would have missed most if not all of the Bahamas to the east.

I don't look at it like that. The track was there. The hurricane warnings were there. The conditions weren't. THAT's what ACTUALLY happened. Talk about the more northern track is pure speculation as models crapped the bed with Isaias the whole way.

[Nuno]

Only about 4 inches of rain in Miami since the start of August, which isn't too far from the normal value according to the NWS but it really has seemed bone dry in coastal Miami. Lots of clouds building all month but nothing comes of it. Feels like we've had a fraction of the normal afternoon thunderstorms since Isaias passed.

[MetroMike]

Only about 4 inches of rain in Miami since the start of August, which isn't too far from the normal value according to the NWS but it really has seemed bone dry in coastal Miami. Lots of clouds building all month but nothing comes of it. Feels like we've had a fraction of the normal afternoon thunderstorms since Isaias passed.

This August is unlike any other I have seen in my many years here.
AlI can say is that mother nature better make up for this eventually.

[Nuno]

Only about 4 inches of rain in Miami since the start of August, which isn't too far from the normal value according to the NWS but it really has seemed bone dry in coastal Miami. Lots of clouds building all month but nothing comes of it. Feels like we've had a fraction of the normal afternoon thunderstorms since Isaias passed.

This August is unlike any other I have seen in my many years here.
AlI can say is that mother nature better make up for this eventually.

Per NWS, last year's first half of August yielded 12 inches of rain by Aug 15 compared to the 4 inches of this month. I doubt my location has seen 4 inches of rain, we're further east than the NWS office.