2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[CaribJam]

12z Euro starting to get into the MDR action as early as next Thursday

https://i.imgur.com/dRMLT07.png

SouthFLTropics, is there any relationship with what the 12z Euro is showing in the MDR and the convection currently at about 10N 35W?

[CaribJam]

https://i.imgur.com/BvJcs21.gif
12z EURO... Consistently picking up a low pressure in the MDR next week and takes an Isaias type track over Puerto Rico (Luis Again)...

Blown Away, this question is also for you...

Is there any relationship with what the 12z Euro is showing in the MDR and the convection currently at about 10N 35W?

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro starting to get into the MDR action as early as next Thursday

https://i.imgur.com/dRMLT07.png

SouthFLTropics, is there any relationship with what the 12z Euro is showing in the MDR and the convection currently at about 10N 35W?

It doesn't appear to be. What the Euro is picking up on seems to be something that rolls off of Africa in about 48 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok boys and girls... It's time to play "WHAT WILL TODAY'S HAPPY HOUR GFS THROW AT US?" 18z running. Yesterday's was nice enough to give us a 961mb cane in the Southern GOM.

[CaribJam]

12z Euro starting to get into the MDR action as early as next Thursday

https://i.imgur.com/dRMLT07.png

SouthFLTropics, is there any relationship with what the 12z Euro is showing in the MDR and the convection currently at about 10N 35W?

It doesn't appear to be. What the Euro is picking up on seems to be something that rolls off of Africa in about 48 hours.

Thanks for the reply.

I have been watching this area... convection seems to be increasing.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro starting to get into the MDR action as early as next Thursday

https://i.imgur.com/dRMLT07.png

SouthFLTropics, is there any relationship with what the 12z Euro is showing in the MDR and the convection currently at about 10N 35W?

CaribJam, that Euro run is a 10 day loop and the low pressure area near PR at 240 hours originated from Africa. So no, the feature you see @10N/35W is not the low in the Euro.

[Steve]

Ok boys and girls... It's time to play "WHAT WILL TODAY'S HAPPY HOUR GFS THROW AT US?" 18z running. Yesterday's was nice enough to give us a 961mb cane in the Southern GOM.

It loads up the EPAC. Lots of ripples and waves in the isobars in the Atlantic. Storms on the other side.

[CaribJam]

12z Euro starting to get into the MDR action as early as next Thursday

https://i.imgur.com/dRMLT07.png

SouthFLTropics, is there any relationship with what the 12z Euro is showing in the MDR and the convection currently at about 10N 35W?

CaribJam, that Euro run is a 10 day loop and the low pressure area near PR at 240 hours originated from Africa. So no, the feature you see @10N/35W is not the low in the Euro.

Thanks for the reply.

[gatorcane]

The models are really bullish on possibly a hyperactive EPAC the next 10+ days which may be the reason there is quite a lot of shear over the Caribbean. Looks to remain quiet across the Atlantic for the time being.

[SFLcane]

The models are really bullish on possibly a hyperactive EPAC the next 10+ days which may be the reason there is quite a lot of shear over the Caribbean. Looks to remain quiet across the Atlantic for the time being.

@DerekOrtt..

the fact is, the forecast is almost certainly wrong. It has been overdoing the monsoon trough on the EPAC side all year. It is usually only that defined in a niño or a year like 2016 where we have very warm water just north of the equator.


https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/12 ... 71840?s=21

[gatorcane]

The models are really bullish on possibly a hyperactive EPAC the next 10+ days which may be the reason there is quite a lot of shear over the Caribbean. Looks to remain quiet across the Atlantic for the time being.

@DerekOrtt..

the fact is, the forecast is almost certainly wrong. It has been overdoing the monsoon trough on the EPAC side all year. It is usually only that defined in a niño or a year like 2016 where we have very warm water just north of the equator.


https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/12 ... 71840?s=21

The GFS and Euro look to agree though on hyperactivity. The GFS has 4 named EPAC systems with two becoming powerful hurricanes in the EPAC. The Euro has 4 also in 10 days. It is hard to hold down that basin even when SST anomalies favor the Atlantic

[SFLcane]

The models are really bullish on possibly a hyperactive EPAC the next 10+ days which may be the reason there is quite a lot of shear over the Caribbean. Looks to remain quiet across the Atlantic for the time being.

@DerekOrtt..

the fact is, the forecast is almost certainly wrong. It has been overdoing the monsoon trough on the EPAC side all year. It is usually only that defined in a niño or a year like 2016 where we have very warm water just north of the equator.


https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/12 ... 71840?s=21

The GFS and Euro look to agree though on hyperactivity. The GFS has 4 named EPAC systems with two becoming powerful hurricanes in the EPAC. The Euro has 4 also in 10 days. It is hard to hold down that basin even when SST anomalies favor the Atlantic

Enjoy from a distance come Aug 20th or so we could very well be watching the Atlantic come to life in historic fashion. The return of the Bonafide major hurricane across the main development region. As I mentioned earlier in another thread steering if it holds looks as ominous as I have seen In many years.

[eastcoastFL]

@DerekOrtt..

the fact is, the forecast is almost certainly wrong. It has been overdoing the monsoon trough on the EPAC side all year. It is usually only that defined in a niño or a year like 2016 where we have very warm water just north of the equator.


https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/12 ... 71840?s=21

The GFS and Euro look to agree though on hyperactivity. The GFS has 4 named EPAC systems with two becoming powerful hurricanes in the EPAC. The Euro has 4 also in 10 days. It is hard to hold down that basin even when SST anomalies favor the Atlantic

Enjoy from a distance come Aug 20th or so we could very well be watching the Atlantic come to life in historic fashion. The return of the Bonafide major hurricane across the main development region. As I mentioned earlier in another thread steering if it holds looks as ominous as I have seen In many years.

I’m curious if dry air will continue to be an issue for development or at least maintaining intensity.

[CFLHurricane]

The GFS and Euro look to agree though on hyperactivity. The GFS has 4 named EPAC systems with two becoming powerful hurricanes in the EPAC. The Euro has 4 also in 10 days. It is hard to hold down that basin even when SST anomalies favor the Atlantic

Enjoy from a distance come Aug 20th or so we could very well be watching the Atlantic come to life in historic fashion. The return of the Bonafide major hurricane across the main development region. As I mentioned earlier in another thread steering if it holds looks as ominous as I have seen In many years.

I’m curious if dry air will continue to be an issue for development or at least maintaining intensity.

It’ll mix itself out by late August as climatology is inclined to do.

[Steve]

With several days to go until the next up-cycle of storms, you want to look to the MJO indicators. GFS and its ensembles have more of a straight line to Phase 8 across the top of the circle. GFS looks to have it on the line between 1 and 8 by August 20th.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ncpe.shtml

Canadian cuts into the circle and moves toward Phase 3 but stays in the circle through the 20th.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cmet.shtml

The European prediction is a cut through the circle into Phases 8 and 1 by the 20th
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml

Japanese model goes rogue and counterclockwise dropping back into Phase 3 and over to 2. I don't see that as being likely in the next couple of days, but sometimes it senses changes differently. It's also a good model so you can't ever count it out. But I'd bet against it this time.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

[AJC3]

Polite reminder: If there's an area of disturbed weather you wish to discuss, by all means, feel free to start a thread on it. If you want to talk about seasonal conditions, etc., there's another thread for that. Let's keep this thread on-topic (i.e. about model guidance through day 16). I had to delete a solid page worth of OT posts.

Thanks.

Polite reminder #2: If you want to talk about longer term seasonal conditions, there already is a seasonal thread for such discussions. If you want to discuss NHC naming policy or 'the good ol' days' there, etc. etc, there are already quite a few other S2K threads that have beaten the old horse of the "liberal NHC naming policy" to death. You can find them if you dig a little.

Please, please, keep this thread on-topic (i.e. about model guidance through day 16). I had to zap another 2 pages worth of OT posts.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1291714913321332742

[gatorcane]

Bulk shear anomalies paint a hostile environment across the Caribbean and SW Atlantic over the next 5 days and really for the next 10+ days... looks like the EPAC steals the show for the foreseeable future.

[EquusStorm]

To be fair the EPac could really use some catching up and a nice storm outbreak, but on the other hand I'm still not totally convinced the GFS has an especially good handle on conditions in the tropics and may be overdoing shear just a bit... though the dry air would kill off what isn't sheared for the next week or two lol

[BobHarlem]

The new GEFS Para is now available on Tropical Tidbits
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1291749227966734336