2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[JPmia]

I don't ever recall seeing this many indicators pointing to an active season like the ones we're seeing now. I am both frightened and fascinated about what is on the horizon. So we know all the ingredients are there.. where will the ridge and troughs set up, how many storms will be active at one time.. seems like all the usual high frequency locations will see action this year. For the CONUS that is Louisiana, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.

[AnnularCane]

Was 2005 showing indicators like this?

[psyclone]

A big takeaway is a more favorable Caribbean...that's a major vector for Gulf chicanery. I'd say we're due for a Caribbean monster in September and or October...think a Gilbert like storm.

[Steve]

if it was not omminous enough already, the NMME paints even a more bigger omminous picture for ASO.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291776025609875457

September AND October

Those look great for SELA particularly if you don't want storms. I'm thinking something will get close to the mouth of the MS River during September and October to flip those anomalies though.

[TheStormExpert]

if it was not omminous enough already, the NMME paints even a more bigger omminous picture for ASO.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291776025609875457

I know we’re really not supposed to use these as a guidance for tropical cyclone tracks but the wetter than average areas would suggest a lot of Caribbean Cruisers tracking west into Central America or Mexico with several tracking north into the Gulf towards Florida or up the East Coast. Of course this is just this particular model but it suggests that a quick recurve out to sea without affecting land is a less likely scenario and that a west-based season is most likely to continue.

[toad strangler]

if it was not omminous enough already, the NMME paints even a more bigger omminous picture for ASO.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291776025609875457

September AND October

Those look great for SELA particularly if you don't want storms. I'm thinking something will get close to the mouth of the MS River during September and October to flip those anomalies though.

Yeah I don't look at these signals with steering in mind. I just see potential for storms. Where they go will be ironed out then. The dry anomaly off the E FL coast is much more pronounced than the SELA one though.

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291810204020027394

[TheStormExpert]

September AND October

Those look great for SELA particularly if you don't want storms. I'm thinking something will get close to the mouth of the MS River during September and October to flip those anomalies though.

Yeah I don't look at these signals with steering in mind. I just see potential for storms. Where they go will be ironed out then. The dry anomaly off the E FL coast is much more pronounced than the SELA one though.

Of course shear and dry air are nonexistent now across Florida and The Bahamas, surprise, surprise!! (Still some mid-level dry air SE of Florida but a great improvement from last Friday when Isaias was approaching)

Hopefully it’ll return when it matters most but what a difference a week makes!

[CyclonicFury]

The next 1-2 weeks will likely be quiet for the most part, but we can't rule out a weak spin-up during that time. But after August 20 I'm expecting the lid to come off. Early-mid August hasn't been very active in recent years and it looks like 2020 will continue that trend. I'd be shocked if we see a hurricane before August 20. But I wouldn't be shocked if we had two in the last third of August.

[TheStormExpert]

The next 1-2 weeks will likely be quiet for the most part, but we can't rule out a weak spin-up during that time. But after August 20 I'm expecting the lid to come off. Early-mid August hasn't been very active in recent years and it looks like 2020 will continue that trend. I'd be shocked if we see a hurricane before August 20. But I wouldn't be shocked if we had two in the last third of August.

I’d be shocked if we didn’t see our first major by the end of the month.

But seriously I think by August 15th-20th is when the lid starts to pop off. Hopefully the global models have a much better handle on things after what happened with the last several storms.

[TheStormExpert]

A big takeaway is a more favorable Caribbean...that's a major vector for Gulf chicanery. I'd say we're due for a Caribbean monster in September and or October...think a Gilbert like storm.

Matthew in 2016 would like to have a word with you!

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291810204020027394?s=19

Come and get your cruise tickets.

[toad strangler]

Interesting .... maybe there is some correlation in tracks with the NMME precip forecasts...

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1291836879176904706

[SFLcane]

Here is the NMME for September in 2017. Shows dry SW Atlantic also so can’t really use this as general tracks. Guess Irma didn’t go through there lol.

[St0rmTh0r]

Those look great for SELA particularly if you don't want storms. I'm thinking something will get close to the mouth of the MS River during September and October to flip those anomalies though.

Yeah I don't look at these signals with steering in mind. I just see potential for storms. Where they go will be ironed out then. The dry anomaly off the E FL coast is much more pronounced than the SELA one though.

Of course shear and dry air are nonexistent now across Florida and The Bahamas, surprise, surprise!! (Still some mid-level dry air SE of Florida but a great improvement from last Friday when Isaias was approaching)

Hopefully it’ll return when it matters most but what a difference a week makes!

https://i.ibb.co/922CNwb/05-FDEA02-1116-46-BA-A84-A-9-B27-DB89426-B.gif

https://i.ibb.co/7jpSGp7/1-F1-BB521-A8-DB-4450-AF22-94846-E4-AE5-E5.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/SB8JRXD/477-DC43-A-AECD-48-CC-B4-D5-20-EA52041-A6-E.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/9phnVpb/38-D4-E8-B9-AF2-F-4-DB9-A8-E7-C11815-A7-C1-EC.gif

Bad signs for peak of season. It's low shear across most of the basin already this will continue to decrease

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1291810204020027394?s=19

Come and get your cruise tickets.

I don't think anyone is going to be crazy enough to get them regardless, it's 2020!

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the NMME for September in 2017. Shows dry SW Atlantic also so can’t really use this as general tracks. Guess Irma didn’t go through there lol.

https://iili.io/dEB5pj.png

Still a good indicator that the ridging will likely be strong enough to steer storms towards land and not away.

[TheStormExpert]

I think a major a lot like Hurricane Allen (1980) or Hurricane Gilbert (1988) are increasingly likely. Typical Caribbean Cruiser paths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

[cycloneye]

I think a major a lot like Hurricane Allen (1980) or Hurricane Gilbert (1988) are increasingly likely. Typical Caribbean Cruiser paths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

Also Ivan 2004.

[MetroMike]

I think a major a lot like Hurricane Allen (1980) or Hurricane Gilbert (1988) are increasingly likely. Typical Caribbean Cruiser paths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

Also Ivan 2004.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Ivan_2004_track.png/1920px-Ivan_2004_track.png

Thats how Ivanhater got his screen name here.