Tropical Wave South-Southwest of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 95L)

[StormTracker]

They don't seem to be impressed!

2 PM TWD:

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa along 19W,
from 19N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 13N between 15W-24W. A band of moderate to strong
convection is seen southwest of the wave from the Equator
extending north to 10N near the monsoon trough.

[cycloneye]

In fact no mention in 2 PM TWO.

[Jr0d]

Very surprised that was not added the NHC tropical outlook at 2pm. Hopefully the 8pm will give us a graphical shaded area to watch.

[crownweather]

Just FYI - The upgraded GFS-Parallel model from 06Z does eventually forecast development of this wave in the Gulf of Mexico around August 20.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Just FYI - The upgraded GFS-Parallel model from 06Z does eventually forecast development of this wave in the Gulf of Mexico around August 20.

Thats concerning because the long range forecast quite a few days ago with the GFS showed a 961mb system in the gulf on August 21st

[Nimbus]

Just FYI - The upgraded GFS-Parallel model from 06Z does eventually forecast development of this wave in the Gulf of Mexico around August 20.

Climo usually dries out the early waves by the time they reach 40W which is why the models jump on the weak and west tracks into the gulf. The GFS Para upgrade is much higher resolution but there are still random unforeseeable future parameters with the dry air and shear. I've heard weather models from the 1950's were 90 percent as accurate as our current models this far out.

[TheStormExpert]

This wave looks decently impressive at the moment. I wonder how much longer before Uncle SAL takes a bite out of it?

[cycloneye]

1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the
next few days as it crosses the tropical eastern Atlantic. By the
middle of next week, environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[abajan]

Mark Sudduth was surprised it wasn't mentioned in the 2 PM TWO. He's betting it gets mentioned in the 8 PM one. Seems likely.

[SFLcane]

1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the
next few days as it crosses the tropical eastern Atlantic. By the
middle of next week, environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/PWlsvOH.png

Could spin up briefly... it will be toast by midweek.

[Nuno]

At some point SAL won't hinder storms from developing like it does in July.

[AxaltaRacing24]

At some point SAL won't hinder storms from developing like it does in July.

it's already on the decline every week.

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

It actually looks pretty decent, nice spin and some good convection.

[tiger_deF]

It actually looks pretty decent, nice spin and some good convection.

Models have really been overall insistent on nothing developing but based on the way the models have been this season I could absolutely see this one catching us by surprise very soon

[TheStormExpert]

It actually looks pretty decent, nice spin and some good convection.

Models have really been overall insistent on nothing developing but based on the way the models have been this season I could absolutely see this one catching us by surprise very soon

Models have just been horrendous especially with Gonzalo, Hanna, and Isaias. This may catch some by surprise but we shall see.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Nice looking TW for sure. GFS is insisting on a brief spin-up from this, and the ensembles are interested as well. Ironically this is the same wave the Euro and its ensemble mean liked a few days back but gradually backed off on. Mind you this would still be before the period of enhanced favorability in the Atlantic, so if we were to somehow get a TC out of this that would be very impressive, and if anything it would be even more indicative of how prime the background state of the Atlantic is this year. What's more, it wouldn't even be the first time this year either (Gonzalo).

[tiger_deF]

850 mb isn't looking too shabby, has been steadily improving all day as well

[Sciencerocks]

It's hard to look at this system and to believe it isn't about ready to become a respectable tropical cyclone. The environment must be very unfavorable to stop this after 48 hours.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1292348122014920704




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1292352314964152321