2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1292105786156490753

The very strong dry anomalies just east of the Bahamas is very interesting. If I didn't know any better I'd think this would suggest a quiet rest of the season from the FL East Coast all the way up the eastern seaboard. But, I know better. I think

The dry mid-level air is evident across South Florida lately with meager cumulus cloud formation and lots of sun. This type of atmosphere is a an example of how much of the Atlantic is as the moment. It can change in a matter of days as we saw with Irma in 2017 but models don’t show a let up yet.

[psyclone]

the ongoing dry conditions around florida today will contribute (in all likelihood) to the danger tomorrow. Below normal precip and cloud cover=above normal temps and shelf waters. Tampa just recorded its warmest july on record. Accordingly our water temps have routinely been around 90 this summer as they are right now. It looks like the east pacific is going to get a burst of activity after which the baton is passed to the atlantic late month. This is still out of range for models which just tend to do a lousy job beyond a week with genesis.

[chaser1]

Buckle up!!

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1292083432177176576

WOW I'll see your and raise you one

Agreed! Things are gonna get "spicy", and I firmly believe well sooner then August 20. I'll see your pair and raise SFLcane 5-fold LOL

[chaser1]

This lull feels the same as the one back in July. And despite a strong suppressive Kelvin wave, strong sal outbreak, and climatology, we still produced Gonzalo and Hana. I would not bet against 2020 in this August lull. I'm all in on Josephine making her appearance before August 16th. We've got two decent players in the MDR right now.

Just to put things into perspective, this lull we're in has now lasted ....... 3-days (Isaias 7/30 - 8/5). Whether the GFS or EURO know it yet or not, I believe that we now have (future) Josephine off Africa now. Our "lull" may well only have lasted 5-10 days.

[TheStormExpert]

Buckle up!!

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1292083432177176576

This guy seems pretty skeptical, wonder why?

https://twitter.com/tarcweather/status/1292084440022364160

Ignore him. hes a weenie

Ok thanks! I just see a lot of other Pro Mets. following so I didn’t know.

[JetFuel_SE]

This lull feels the same as the one back in July. And despite a strong suppressive Kelvin wave, strong sal outbreak, and climatology, we still produced Gonzalo and Hana. I would not bet against 2020 in this August lull. I'm all in on Josephine making her appearance before August 16th. We've got two decent players in the MDR right now.

Just to put things into perspective, this lull we're in has now lasted ....... 3-days (Isaias 7/30 - 8/5). Whether the GFS or EURO know it yet or not, I believe that we now have (future) Josephine off Africa now. Our "lull" may well only have lasted 5-10 days.

It also looks like 94L is trying to make a comeback, which could become Josephine before that untagged wave.

[CyclonicFury]

I've read some discussion about this season possibly being "west based" with an unfavorable MDR, but I don't really agree.

The MDR is much warmer than normal (though it has cooled slightly recently). The west African Monsoon has been very strong with near record rainfall in the Sahel region. When the WAM is strong, tropical waves are often stronger and develop sooner. We already have seen two tropical cyclones form east of 45°W, TS Gonzalo and TD Ten. TD Ten formed east of 20°W, an impressive accomplishment for late July. Gonzalo struggling in the MDR shouldn't be a surprise considering the rarity of MDR hurricanes before August.

[EquusStorm]

Despite indicators, skepticism is still a valid viewpoint imo, as much as suggesting the possibility of above average activity in a season predicted to be far below normal; 2006 and 2013 fresh in mind. It's important to have all perspectives. To me though it's just hard to assume current basin shear and dry air continues indefinitely when climatology says it shuts off by August 20 or so and has done exactly that in almost all our above average seasons. Not to mention the absurd basin conditions that could let a hurricane outbreak blow up in only a tiny sliver of favorable conditions. If we're still asking when the SAL will leave a month from today though, that's when I'll join the chorus. I just really don't see it being a problem that late. Mid August has been a dead zone in many recent seasons for this reason and it always seems to explode before September so I don't see any reason it won't this year too. The longer it stays the more dire the threat from homegrown majors a la 2005 becomes though.

[Hammy]

Despite indicators, skepticism is still a valid viewpoint imo, as much as suggesting the possibility of above average activity in a season predicted to be far below normal; 2006 and 2013 fresh in mind.

2006 wasn't unforseen background conditions that changed things as with 2013, but an El Nino that developed when neutral conditions were expected. We're currently in the middle of a strengthening La Nina so a similar situation to that isn't likely.

I've read some discussion about this season possibly being "west based" with an unfavorable MDR, but I don't really agree.

The MDR is much warmer than normal (though it has cooled slightly recently). The west African Monsoon has been very strong with near record rainfall in the Sahel region. When the WAM is strong, tropical waves are often stronger and develop sooner. We already have seen two tropical cyclones form east of 45°W, TS Gonzalo and TD Ten. TD Ten formed east of 20°W, an impressive accomplishment for late July. Gonzalo struggling in the MDR shouldn't be a surprise considering the rarity of MDR hurricanes before August.

I don't remember who it was that pointed out, but an active WAM can also lead to more dust outbreaks over the longer term and the monsoon trough being positioned further north, causing waves to come out over cooler waters (as was TD10's case.)

[toad strangler]

18z GFS with nothing in the Atlantic Basin through all 384 and keeps the E Pac very active, also all they way through 384.

My spidey senses tell me that the model huggers among us are nearing a call for a Atlantic Basin hyperactive bust

[Steve]

I've read some discussion about this season possibly being "west based" with an unfavorable MDR, but I don't really agree.

The MDR is much warmer than normal (though it has cooled slightly recently). The west African Monsoon has been very strong with near record rainfall in the Sahel region. When the WAM is strong, tropical waves are often stronger and develop sooner. We already have seen two tropical cyclones form east of 45°W, TS Gonzalo and TD Ten. TD Ten formed east of 20°W, an impressive accomplishment for late July. Gonzalo struggling in the MDR shouldn't be a surprise considering the rarity of MDR hurricanes before August.

Season is west biased so far regardless of the MDR which has improved heat content since earlier in the season. Sure there will always be some fish storms and some that form pretty far east. They are the exception so far this season compared to where many systems ended up (or the two that started west and went ene out).

[TheStormExpert]

The classic +AMO look is starting to quickly fade as warm SST anomalies are starting to pop up in the mid-latitude subtropical Atlantic. Wonder if this will put a damper on things in the Tropical Atlantic?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS with nothing in the Atlantic Basin through all 384 and keeps the E Pac very active, also all they way through 384.

My spidey senses tell me that the model huggers among us are nearing a call for a Atlantic Basin hyperactive bust

Or better, those infamous season cancel posts will begin to pop as the D-Day of the 20th nears and the models continue with nada.

[chaser1]

18z GFS with nothing in the Atlantic Basin through all 384 and keeps the E Pac very active, also all they way through 384.

My spidey senses tell me that the model huggers among us are nearing a call for a Atlantic Basin hyperactive bust

Those folks are welcome to sit down on the 'ol railroad tracks while peering toward the horizon. Just so long as they jump off the moment that fast approaching blast of smoke suddenly appears

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS with nothing in the Atlantic Basin through all 384 and keeps the E Pac very active, also all they way through 384.

My spidey senses tell me that the model huggers among us are nearing a call for a Atlantic Basin hyperactive bust

Or better, those infamous season cancel posts will begin to pop as the D-Day of the 20th nears and the models continue with nada.

If the models continue to show nothing a week out on the 20th it may be time to start questioning hyper active but an average season is likely regardless of the state of the Atlantic. For now I think the lid finally comes off around Friday this coming week.

[aspen]

Remember when SSTs around Florida were scorching, and the precursor to Hanna upwelled them all and sent ocean surface temperatures in the region to below-average levels?

That did not last long....look at the extent of those >30 C SSTS!

[KAlexPR]

The classic +AMO look is starting to quickly fade as warm SST anomalies are starting to pop up in the mid-latitude subtropical Atlantic. Wonder if this will put a damper on things in the Tropical Atlantic?

A transition to basin wide warmth as we approach peak season is not uncommon. 2010 and 2017, both hyperactive MDR years, featured this pattern beginning August and it did not hamper activity throughout the rest of the season. 2020 also features a warmer Canary current, which tends to enhance tropical cyclone activity in the MDR.

2010:



2017:



2020:

[Steve]

18z GFS with nothing in the Atlantic Basin through all 384 and keeps the E Pac very active, also all they way through 384.

My spidey senses tell me that the model huggers among us are nearing a call for a Atlantic Basin hyperactive bust

Or better, those infamous season cancel posts will begin to pop as the D-Day of the 20th nears and the models continue with nada.

If the models continue to show nothing a week out on the 20th it may be time to start questioning hyper active but an average season is likely regardless of the state of the Atlantic. For now I think the lid finally comes off around Friday this coming week.

Seems to me that an above average season is a foregone conclusion at this point.

[St0rmTh0r]

The classic +AMO look is starting to quickly fade as warm SST anomalies are starting to pop up in the mid-latitude subtropical Atlantic. Wonder if this will put a damper on things in the Tropical Atlantic?

A transition to basin wide warmth as we approach peak season is not uncommon. 2010 and 2017, both hyperactive MDR years, featured this pattern beginning August and it did not hamper activity throughout the rest of the season. 2020 also features a warmer Canary current, which tends to enhance tropical cyclone activity in the MDR.

2010:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2010/coraltemp5km_ssta_20100807_west.gif

2017:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2017/coraltemp5km_ssta_20170807_west.gif

2020:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2020/coraltemp5km_ssta_20200807_west.gif

2010 could have been way worst if not for troughs

[TheStormExpert]

At this point I’m thinking a season like 2010 or 2017 with just several more named storms POTENTIALLY getting us to the Greek Alphabet is the best bet. As for hurricanes 10-12 seems most likely, with 4-6 majors. So basically CSU and NOAA’s numbers are likely close to spot on assuming everything holds. Just my two cents!