2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1161 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:20 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The GFS is showing an abundance of shear across the Western Caribbean and extending eastward in the MDR due to EPAC activity. You can see the 991MB storm in the EPAC which later goes on to becoming potentially a major hurricane.

https://i.postimg.cc/sgvfm4PK/gfs-shear-atl-33.png



The Atlantic will not take off as long as the EPAC is going strong thats pretty much guaranteed. Honestly could be almost the end of August before we're totally favorable.


Sure, if you take GFS post 7 days as gospel.


Exactly. If we derisively laugh at the 7-10 day GFS in terms of tropical tracking/genesis map, why should we trust the 7-10 day shear map?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1162 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:01 pm

I'm still thinking the loss of data from commercial Trans-Atlantic/Pacific flights have hobbled the models somewhat
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1163 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:38 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I'm still thinking the loss of data from commercial Trans-Atlantic/Pacific flights have hobbled the models somewhat


Would that explain the lack of model foresight?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1164 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 08, 2020 5:55 pm

Hammy wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I'm still thinking the loss of data from commercial Trans-Atlantic/Pacific flights have hobbled the models somewhat


Would that explain the lack of model foresight?

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1289057659866345474


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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1165 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:29 pm

Hammy wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I'm still thinking the loss of data from commercial Trans-Atlantic/Pacific flights have hobbled the models somewhat


Would that explain the lack of model foresight?


"Six COSMIC-2 satellites launched in June 2019 aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket are gathering more than 4,000 daily radio occultation soundings."

Supposed to increase accuracy by 6% to 8% which sounds a little high for the longest range forecasts but might be true in around the 72 hour range.

https://spacenews.com/just-in-time-for- ... er-models/
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1166 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 08, 2020 6:47 pm

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1167 Postby St0rmTh0r » Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:42 pm

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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1168 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1292245355187273728[url]

[url]https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1292245723635998722[url]


I agree with Derek. What the models are doing is concentrating the rising motion over the EPAC and struggle to move the signal eastward, something you would see in an El Nino/warm neutral year. This is obviously not the case this year and I think with the time frame coming in, models will eventually adjust.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1169 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:18 am

There was a shift to active in the GFS starting with the 0zGFS and continued to the 6z, I think finally it’s finally sniffing out the Atlantic modeled conditions so hang on tight because after the 20th the danger really begins
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1170 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:54 am

Hurricaneman wrote:There was a shift to active in the GFS starting with the 0zGFS and continued to the 6z, I think finally it’s finally sniffing out the Atlantic modeled conditions so hang on tight because after the 20th the danger really begins


If you look at 6z vort GFS run it takes some energy from 95L all the way into the GOM. Another thing Sudduth alluded to yesterday is that there isn't much out there now to poof these waves into nothing. So the energy has to go somewhere. No screaming trades or westerlies, and no huge swaths of SAL and dry air. Tis the season.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1171 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:13 am

It's not a unique idea if it's posted twice.

/cause I'm the taxman, yeah-eah I'm the tax man...

GFS
Image

CFS
Image

ECMWF
Image

CMC
Image
Last edited by tolakram on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed quote
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1172 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:16 am

Steve wrote:It's not a unique idea if it's posted twice.

/cause I'm the taxman, yeah-eah I'm the tax man...

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/rGYUR9c.gif

CFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/tErTlwa.gif

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/6D9hgFT.gif

CMC
https://i.imgur.com/NSRFovB.gif



Man if there is one thing I have never bothered to brush up on is reading MJO plots. What is this showing.
Last edited by tolakram on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed quote
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1173 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:41 am

Okay so what you're generally looking at is the past 40 days and the next predicted 15 days. The green line represents the model. The yellow lines are ensembles. Dark lines are the prior 40 days. The shaded grey areas encompass the area of ensembles and show their general trend.

I'm not an expert on this by any stretch. I just watch it. The short of it is that the MJO Phase is based on where upward motion is occurring in the Pacific or Indian Oceans - which moves west to east (propagates) across the equatorial regions. It's a measure of intraseason variability of the atmosphere in the tropics. Some years this is a very strong weather signal, 2020 has been one of those years so far. Some years it isn't and doesn't really make it across the Pacific or is limited in scope and effect. Downstream implications for North America can be deduced from the way weather behaves farther west because of the direction of earth's rotation. Think about the Pacific basin and weather. What happens there is often an indicator on what's to come here. You can use things like whether there is a mean trough west of Hawaii, east of Hawaii, whether thunderstorms are firing off in the west or east Indian Ocean, WPAC hurricanes recurving or plowing westward or westnorthwestward, etc. <-- or in other words, things happening west can tell us what's going to happen farther east.

There are 8 phases of the MJO. These phases have corresponding places where tropical cyclones (and certainly other weather) are most likely to form, be, behave, etc. based on given phases. For Phases 8, 1, 2 and 3, the western Atlantic is in a riper stage of upward motion. Phase 1 also favors upward motion in the EPAC. Phases 2 and 3 are so-called hyper phases for much of the big islands and the USA.

To answer your question as to what they are showing, most of them move from Phase 5 to Phase 1-ish over the next 2 weeks. Some curve down toward Phases 2 and 3. The circle in the middle is a more neutral indicator. MJO can still be sort of in Phase "x" but generally there is a weak signal when it's there. If/when a line gets way to the outer edge of the graph (the square outline), things tend to be super-amplified where things amplify in that particular phase.

Best place to start is the NCEP site where I got the images from. You scroll over the model names and it will display the phase plots. There are sites that show specifically model what happens in a particular phase. After this post, I'll dig one up.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml
Last edited by Steve on Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1174 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:44 am

toad strangler wrote:
Steve wrote:
It's not a unique idea if it's posted twice.

/cause I'm the taxman, yeah-eah I'm the tax man...

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/rGYUR9c.gif

CFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/tErTlwa.gif

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/6D9hgFT.gif

CMC
https://i.imgur.com/NSRFovB.gif



Man if there is one thing I have never bothered to brush up on is reading MJO plots. What is this showing.


That the GFS and CFS show major rising motion in the Atlantic while the Euro and CMC show rising motion not really getting to the Atlantic but based on LaNina the CFS or GFS May be a better bet
Last edited by tolakram on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed quote
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1175 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 09, 2020 10:54 am

Here's a base article from NOAA - What is the MJO and why do we care
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... do-we-care

Here is a link to world temperatures when in specific phases during certain 3-month times (e.g. J-F-M, J-J-A, etc.)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... mperature/

Here is a link to world precipitation when in specific phases during certain 3-month time frames
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ipitation/


Here's a paper written by Center for Ocean-Land-Atmospheric Studies and the CPC. It's got some diagrams that help explain.
https://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/ST ... 121008.htm

Here's a paper by Dr. Klotzbach along the same lines
https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/artic ... n-Atlantic

Here's a paper that shows how the CFS shows Atlantic tropical activity in its modeling as a result of the MJO
https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/articl ... esponse-to
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1176 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:02 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Steve wrote:
It's not a unique idea if it's posted twice.

/cause I'm the taxman, yeah-eah I'm the tax man...

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/rGYUR9c.gif

CFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/tErTlwa.gif

ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/6D9hgFT.gif

CMC
https://i.imgur.com/NSRFovB.gif



Man if there is one thing I have never bothered to brush up on is reading MJO plots. What is this showing.


That the GFS and CFS show major rising motion in the Atlantic while the Euro and CMC show rising motion not really getting to the Atlantic but based on LaNina the CFS or GFS May be a better bet


If the MJO is in phases 1-3 those are the positives for Atlantic Hurricanes. They all get into one of those phases. That amplitude into phase 1 is concerning. Then again, the JMA goes backwards into phase 3 and 2.
FYI...if you like cold and snow in the East these are also the winters cold phases for much of the East CONUS
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1177 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:04 am

Thanks Steve and Co .... I've bookmarked the posts to backtrack to when I have time.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1178 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:10 am

They don't update the JMA often enough on that site, and I don't think it's right considering we've jumped from 4 to 5 rather than going down to 3.

Toad,

This link is the motherload I was trying to find before. It's only 6 pages, but it shows the +/- impacts on ACE, where storms form and where they don't in a given Phase. Go to Page 4 and you'll see in orange where storms are more likely to be or landfall in a given Phase (also shown below though the phases are in aggregate - 2&3, 4&5, 6&7, 8&1). This might be the most important graph for anyone who is essentially a weather-idiot like me.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 09GL039089

Here's the graph
Image
Last edited by Steve on Sun Aug 09, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1179 Postby toad strangler » Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:24 am

Steve wrote:They don't update the JMA often enough on that site, and I don't think it's right considering we've jumped from 4 to 5 rather than going down to 3.

Toad,

This link is the motherload I was trying to find before. It's only 6 pages, but it shows the +/- impacts on ACE, where storms form and where they don't in a given Phase. Go to Page 4 and you'll see in orange where storms are more likely to be or landfall in a given a Phase. This might be the most important graph for anyone who is essentially a weather-idiot like me.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 09GL039089

Here's the graph
https://i.imgur.com/OVsftZy.jpg


Thanks! :D I'll be sinking into that ....

12z GFS brings 95L energy into the Bahamas way down the road at 198 hrs
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1180 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:30 am

Looking at that Graph, note Phase 4 which we were in while Isaias was coming up. Note the "white" just east of FL and the US East Coast which is a neutral signal for that area. Maybe it helps explain that Isaias wasn't going to get super strong or wasn't going to weaken considerably while moving up that "white alley". If it would have moved into Florida, it probably would have weakened as the whole state of Florida is more suppressed for hurricane activity in that Phase. Again, it doesn't mean that's the only thing that can happen, but it's a solid indicator. Also note the NW Gulf where there is very enhanced activity in that Phase (only enhanced area on the US Coast during that phase)

Anyway, the whole point of this discussion in the model thread (since it's a modeled phenomenon) is that we're on the way toward upward motion in parts of the EPAC and Tropical Atlantic according to the models. If/when the MJO takes a deep dive into Phases 2 or 3, expect the most activity to be threatening us.
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